David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 14
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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China Riding The Global Economic Recovery
The global economic recovery is strengthening and becoming more synchronized, according to updated projections for 2017 and 2018. China is an important part of this improved outlook, and its equity markets have been outperforming.
Dogma Is Dangerous: The Problem With Active Vs. Passive Debating
Part of the allure of modern portfolio theory and the academic research that has become a staple of investment theory is its theoretical certainty.
Takeaways From NABE
Economies around the world are doing about as well as the US is, but with some risks to the downside. Europe is actually doing a bit better than the US, finally.
Munis In Third Quarter 2017 – All About Storms
The real story of the muni bond market in the third quarter of 2017 was the impact of the three large named storms: Harvey, Irma, and Maria.
3Q2017 Review: Taxable Total Return
The third quarter of 2017 saw a strong equity market, while yields in the fixed-income market experienced continued volatility. The big picture for the Treasury market during the third quarter was that yields were changed a bit.
September’s FOMC Decision
Is there an alternative, understandable explanation for the inflation path we have seen?
A Tale Of Two Countries
France’s most recent leading indicators suggest some softening in the third quarter, perhaps due to uncertainty about the impact of the new government’s proposed reforms.
Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 3Q 2017 Review: A Low-Volatility Market
The volatility index, VIX, which is highly correlated (negatively) with the equity market, made a remarkable all-time intra-day low of 8.84 and hovered around the 9-handle for quite some time before it came back to the double-digit level.
Quick Note On Hurricane Maria And Insured Puerto Rico Bonds
To the extent that Federal aid promotes the rebuilding of infrastructure in Puerto Rico, there may be a positive effect on the finances of the major issuers down the road.
3Q2017 Review: US ETF
What a crazy quarter we are closing. Washington chaos and antics, North Korean threats and missiles, hurricanes, uncertain Fed policy, no advancement of legislation or tax reform or healthcare reform or repatriation or infrastructure rebuilding.
The Wrath Of Irma
The combined effect of Irma on the heels of Harvey, affecting a significant portion of the US population, may yet produce a different outcome in the bond markets than occurred in previous disasters.
Market Correlations: Margin Debt, High Yield, And Ten-Year Bond
The rolling year-over-year changes in NYSE margin debt and the S&P 500 in the past half-century have been stably maintaining that co-movement between 80%—87.86% of the time, on average.
Trump, Lincoln, Churchill, Hegel, Gundlach
Speculation and diverse economic and market forecasts abound on the heels of the Trump win and Republican Senate and House victories.
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