David Kotok Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ... more

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Why States Are Not Going To Default From The Coronavirus Fallout
In our opinion this is a short-term shock, although it will likely change some behaviors for the long term that will need to be monitored.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Airlines And COVID19
Since the advent of widespread air travel following World War II, the world has gotten much smaller. These days, it’s just a hop, skip, and a jump for an American to spend a few days in Europe. Or, at least, that’s how it was until a few weeks ago
The VIX Spread
The VIX does not fly above 50 often: There have been only 71 days where the VIX rose above 50 in its history, dating back to 1993.
Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields
The turmoil and volatility in the equity markets is also greatly affecting bond markets, with both taxable and tax-free yields shifting down sharply.
The Virus And Markets
The market outlook has become extremely momentum-driven and foresees higher stock prices in 2020.
Market Commentary: Virus Death Count
Markets were dealt a surprise on February 12, when changes to the way coronavirus cases in Hubei Province are counted resulted in a dramatic surge in the number of new cases reported in China.
China, Asian Stocks, And Coronavirus Risk
The Chinese government has made clear that it will take measures to mitigate the slowdown, including broad monetary easing, fiscal spending, targeted tax easing, and credit support.
Impeachment, Markets & 2 Dead Men
What will the intensely controversial impeachment process have on the markets?
Cash Or No Cash? Optimist, Pessimist Or Realist?
So far, this 2019–2020 stock market rally has been fierce, and is being driven by momentum. It is a force that must be respected and understood. The best way to do this is by seeking different viewpoints.
Bonds Roar Back
2019 saw bond yields turn around from their climb in 2018 and move lower. The 10-year Treasury started the year at 2.70% and ended the year at 1.90% after making a low in early September at 1.45%.
Market Commentary – ESG Investing. Also Brazil.
ESG, or Environmental, Social and Governance Investing is getting hotter (pun intended).
4Q 2019 Review: International Equity Markets
International equity markets finished the year robustly, with the iShares MSCI All Country ex-US ETF ACWX, gaining 7% in the 4th quarter on a total return basis.
4Q 2019 Review – Total Return Taxable Fixed Income
During the Q4 of 2019, Treasury yields rose in the maturity range of two years out to thirty years, with the biggest increase being the yield for the 10-year.
Will Emerging Market Equities Finally Outperform In 2020?
Following outflows from emerging-market equity funds during the first three quarters of 2019, significant inflows are occurring in the fourth quarter as investor sentiment becomes more positive,
Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note No.2: A Vulnerable Trajectory For Stock Prices
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020.
Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note No.1: US–China Trade War
U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected to be passed.
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