Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

COVID Shock & The Fed
This is not a “normal” recovery cycle, so using normal indicators may be a trap.
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Real Interest Rates And Fed
Low-interest rates are likely to be with us for a while, and very low or negative real rates are here as well.
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Recent Moves In Inflation Expectations And The Implications For Fed Policy
Recent movements in inflation expectations, as measured by the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates show a marked acceleration that has interesting implications for Fed policy in the coming months.
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Jobs: Pandemic Is Still Having A Significant Negative Impact On Economic Activity
Progress in 2021 on one leg of the FOMC’s dual mandate, the jobs situation, has started to be revealed with the release of 5 weeks of data on new unemployment claims for January and the BLS January CES jobs numbers.
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The Long Strange Trip Of The Muni Market In 2020
The bond fund outflows of March followed the downdraft in oil prices caused by the onset of the pandemic, which caused the sharp sell-off in the stock market.
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International Equities At Year-End 2020 & The Promise Ahead
In May, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a strong recovery, and global economic growth bounced back, but not enough to counter the earlier decline.
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Comments

Latest Comments
The Failing Trump Navarro Trade War
2 years ago

I agree. But US was hurt by retaliation tariffs. Soybeans. Lobster. Two examples.

1 to 1 of 1 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

ACUC AMERICAN URANIUM CP
BSYN BIOSYNERGY INC
CPP Preferredplus Trust
CUYTY COLRUYT SA UNSP ADR
DYSOY DYESOL LTD ADR
EPRJF
FGTIX Franklin Templeton Growth Target Fund Class A
HRID HYBRID FUELS INC
MMRBX Mainstay Moderate Allocation Fund Class B
MOSYX Massmutual Select Overseas Fd Cl Y
PTTWF POLISH TELECOM TPSA
VCTDIX Van Kampen Focus Portfolios
WAOCX Western Asset Fds Shs -C- Non-US Opportunity Bond Fund
WNMLA WINMILL
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TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Take A Deep Breath
Alexander Morse, researcher at Rockefeller Institute, reports CO₂ emissions will fall 5% this year. CO₂ has fallen by 20% in Wuhan, while microscopic atmospheric debris fell by 71% since March 24th in India.
Very Slow Growth In U.S. Markets
David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, isn’t particularly bullish about U.S. financial markets for this year...
Stocktake: Will China’s Coronavirus Infect Stocks?
Much depends on the trajectory of the deadly virus.
Here’s How The Stock Market Has Performed During Past Viral Outbreaks
Epidemics and pandemics do have market consequences and raise risk, and…they can be deadly,
The Warren Hedge
It’s impossible to fathom what all the effects of a Warren presidency would be, but it’s hard to see tax-free munis being hurt by higher marginal income taxes.
Repo Market, Monetary Policy, & Liquidity
There was an unusual spike in rates in the repurchase (“repo”) market causing a liquidity squeeze. It remains a mystery as to what catalyzed the liquidity squeeze.
John Auther's Points Of Return
If the Federal Reserve does not cut its target for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points at the end of this month, many in the market will feel entitled to sue the central bank for breach of contract.
Large-Cap Growth Stocks Still Hold Luster
Large-cap growth stocks, the darling of the bull market over the past 10 years, still hold promise for clients despite some elevated risks, according to advisors and market observers.

Work Experience

Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
Cumberland Advisors
March 1973 - Present (48 years 9 months)

Since 1973, Cumberland Advisors has been a trusted source for market expertise, personal service, and individual and institutional money management. Cumberland Advisors is an independent, fee-for-service money management firm managing over $2.5 billion in assets.

Education

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School
Bachelor’s Degree
Economics
University of Pennsylvania
Master’s Degree
Organizational Dynamics
University of Pennsylvania
Master’s Degree
Philosophy

Publications

Adventures in Muniland: A Guide to Municipal Bond Investing in the Post-Crisis Era
David Kotok
Cumberland Advisors
08/03/2015

With a perspective that only decades of experience can bring, Adventures in Muniland captures the municipal bond market's transformation from stodgy to dynamic. This concise, yet comprehensive stroll offers an insider's view, brings the reader right up to today's discussions, and carries the added benefit of providing a clear understanding of what can at times appear to be an opaque marketplace. The Cumberland team has produced an insightful review for the seasoned professional and a must read for newcomers and investors.

From Bear to Bull with ETFs
David Kotok
Cumberland Advisors Publishing
07/09/2014

This revised second edition focuses on certain U.S.-registered ETFs and their performance during the recent bear market and subsequent bull market up to March 2014. It concentrates on those ETFs that refer to, are part of, are linked in some way to, or are references for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index and its sector components. It also includes some ETFs that capture performance results outside of the S&P 500. There are three sections and a new appendix. The first section focuses on actual trading and events that occurred in the market from October 2007 until March 2014. The second is a brand-new section written by Talley Léger on the performance of the cyclical vs. the defensive sectors of the U.S. equity market. The third section focuses on commentaries that discuss the events during the period of October 2007 through March 2014, written and published during this bear market and ensuing bull-market phase.