David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 10
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Bursting Bitcoin Bubble?
Some have argued that Bitcoin’s rise was tied to stock market success and that the cryptocurrency’s subsequent decline portends a stock market crash.
Tactical Trend, Q2 2018: "Embrace The Grind"
Sideways consolidating markets can test traders’ emotions. It is always a challenge to avoid overreacting to headline news and daily market gyrations.
SCOTUS – Two Major Rulings With Positive Implications For Municipal Bond Credit Quality
The Supreme Court of the United States on June 27th ruled in a 5–4 vote that government workers who choose not to join unions may not be required to help pay for collective bargaining and other union endeavors.
Difficult Quarter For Eurozone Stocks
Eurozone equity markets have encountered significant headwinds in the second quarter of this year despite continued robust economic growth above estimated potential for most Eurozone economies.
Second Quarter 2018 Taxable Bond Market
The second quarter of 2018 saw a continuation of themes apparent in the first quarter. In June the Federal Reserve continued raising rates to a federal funds rate target that now stands at 1.75%–2.00%.
Tax Free Munis Continue To Perform
The tax-free bond market has continued to benefit from the drop in supply so far in 2018.
Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2018 Review
While the U.S. stock market had a long overdue correction in February of 2018, the first quarter ended merely flat eventually. Continuing from the rebound since February low, the stock market kept rising strongly in the second quarter.
The Fed Decides
Median GDP growth was moved up one tenth of a percent in 2018 and was unchanged in 2019 through the Longer Run. The unemployment forecast edged down even further to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020 but remained at 4.5% for the longer run.
Causality
A strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causality. This is the case with the VIX. It’s closely related to the S&P 500 with a negative correlation, but the relationship may not be causal.
France Notebook
Global markets have been discounting the likelihood of a serious trade war breaking out, but the risks of this happening appear to be increasing.
Political Instability In Italy And Spain And Slowing Business Activity Confront European Markets
In the past two weeks, investors have come, belatedly, to recognize the negative implications of the election of a populist government in Italy, the first such government in Western Europe.
FOMC Minutes – May 2018
The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting.
Kim, Trump, Thucydides
We now have an unpredictable escalation path. US policy now realizes that hope is not a strategy.
Japan’s Domestic Political Turmoil Versus Stocks
Thus far this year Japan’s equity market has not been swayed by the volatile domestic political developments. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF is up 0.9% year-to-date, similar to the performance of the US market.
Fed, Fishing, Labor Data
Rising interest rates would only put further pressure on the federal budget in the years ahead. The question of how Treasury will finance its borrowing needs is not likely to go away anytime soon.
Fed, Employment, Mistake Or Correct? Munis?
Insanity is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”. The definition certainly applies in economics and financial markets when we apply regression analysis to data on the assumption that nothing has changed.
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