I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...
more I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades I advised an independent brokerage firm on capital markets, and yield curve analysis and portfolio management. Prior to that, I worked as senior consultant, with Peat Marwick and Partners (PMP) and A.R.A Consultants, responsible for projects in infrastructure, industrial strategy and public finance. From 1972 to 1980, I was Director of Research at C.D. Howe Institute, overseeing research in Canada-US trade, currency developments, and Canadian monetary policies.
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Latest Comments
Why The Urgency To Raise Rates?
Gary
Collusion between the Wall St banks and the Fed is nothing new. The centre vs. the regions is not new in the US. In Canada, we have a unity banking system, so such issues do not arise. ( another reason to move here!)
How A Regulator Can Ruin A Solid Mortgage Lender: The Case Of Home Capital Group
On the rent/ownership point. I live in the centre of the city--highest prices and highest rent. The math works out that renting or owning is a toss up ( remember in Canada mortgage interest and property taxes are not deductible). Decisions on ownership have more to do with control over one's asset than on the cost.
How A Regulator Can Ruin A Solid Mortgage Lender: The Case Of Home Capital Group
The market is not insane in Toronto. The greater city takes into ever year 150,000 immigrants or half of Canada's total ( do not tell Trump that). That means 75,000 new housing units are required. Land restrictions results in few units than that are actually built. It is all about supply and that is why mortgages are the most sought after investment.
Long-Term Interest Rates March To Their Own Drummer
I do not think the low rates for long bonds is about fear. It is about value in a world of deflationary conditions.As to whether the new normal is healthy, just think of rates during the 19th century. The Bank of England issued 3 % consoles in the late 1700s and those bonds held that rate right up to the start of WWI. That was 200 years of `new normal`.
Interest Rates Are Not A Leading Indicator
Gary
Soft data suffers from a lot of auto-correlation. The stock market takes its cue from a buoyant consumer sentiment number. That number includes a measure of the stock market and how the consumer feels richer. Higher consumer sentiment then feeds back into the stock market and the loop is complete.
I never use soft data for this reason
Does The Fed Have To Shrink Its Balance Sheet?
One would want to infrastructure spending not to be offset by sterilization because stimulus is badly needed today.
Why Bonds Aren’t Overvalued
A very good primer on the whole issue. Perhaps, an analysis of the yield curve would support your case more that there is no bubble as the flattening of the curve argues that inflation is not a problem.
Why US Growth Cannot Exceed 3%: Look No Further Than Demography
Gary, you can always move to Canada where we have just increased our immigration quotas by 20% this year over last year.
Stock Markets Fear The Fed More Than War
fully agree with this
Stock Markets Fear The Fed More Than War
Gary
I think there are two other factors accounting for labour's share dropping so much. First, China has moved the world's supply curve to the right, so that the supply of labour is cheaper at every price point. Without this US wages could be higher ( this should not be construed as support for the anti-globalization view). Second, with robots and algorithms growing, capital is deepening and/or labour lessening in the production function.