It is not good for the global economy, but neither is allowing a nuclear Middle East. On this point, I think Trump should stand firm. This includes being steadfast against N. Korea as well. Yes we pay the price at the pump, but I'd much prefer that over allowing problematic countries arm themselves with nukes.

I think the issue is that the market is increasingly unnerved about his apparent instability even though it is more likely planned political posturing.

Don't expect big pickups as #oil prices rise and #tradewar uncertainty saps the market. One is easily fixable and the other looks to say for the long haul. Oil prices are not going down anytime soon. Even Saudi Arabia can't reverse the trend which is being driven by rising Asian demand.

The world is always just a few steps from a financial downturn. That's what makes investing a risk but is also why stock tends to be affordable. The issue is that it takes a major change of sentiment to pull down the market. Right now there isn't the catalyst for that although there are rumblings of potential catalysts namely trade war. In reality, oil or power wars will be a more likely suspect. If oil goes well above $100 a barrel due to Asia sucking up all the supply we can see a downturn in many industries and even in housing as money rushes towards inflationary investments and out of real estate and more stagnant investments.

We know oil and power can cause downturns. Inflation itself if it rises too fast also causes downturns. Trade wars helped spark the great depression, although it will take a lot to be the primary catalyst for a downturn. That said, if it does cause a downturn it will be a nasty one. Which leaves me with the real major concern, not if a downturn happens, but how bad will it be. Given our central banks actions, I figure it can be quite bad with little they can do with QE or rates since they already have low rates and have used QE extravagantly during the recovery without cleaning it up significantly at all.

Look to invest in technology and software which so far is free from tariff tiffs so far. There is already protections against foreign countries buying up key assets in the US if Trump hasn't noticed by now. Hopefully, the latest Washington junk will fade away. The tariffs on steel hurts US industries and our reputation enough already.

As you can see margin debt drops off suddenly before a downturn and thus is not a good indicator of a recession. By the time you see the reported margin debt drop off you will see the market drop.

Trump does not view trading partners as partners, and that is the main problem. He looks at the situation like a kid, as a win lose battle. If such is the case, then there is no reason to trade. If such is the solution, get ready to live in a much weaker America that is not as wealthy, powerful, or economically vibrant. This is not making America great again, it is sticking your head in the sand and saying you are better off than we were when we were looking forward and leading the world.

Rather than helping, this is hurting our US industries. The only way to improve our trade is by either buying less or getting those overseas to buy more of our products. Making them an enemy and souring relations only makes getting the second solution, which is much better than the first, that much harder. What would help is getting people in government to broker more trade, not destroy trade relations.

They may recover somewhat but in reality even the treat of a trade war hurts industries. That's why one should be careful saying things as well as doing them.

Agreed, however there is a concern the US dollar will erode and thus the attractiveness of US treasuries wanes making it harder to finance the deficit overseas. The US is balancing a lot of eggs here.