Nice article and overview.

The focus on Q3 in the US will be the trade war. I believe the Fed will continue to try to pare down its QE but will be more accommodating on rate increases while the dollar holds up. If the dollar slides it will likely have to consider raising rates regardless. Sadly no one seems to be able to convince Trump that the trade war is bad for him even though even without countermeasures, it hurts the US auto industry and eventually an even broader swath of US manufacturing jobs along with US branding clout. Republicans should do something about this, but they are in a bind having elected a president with very liberal global economic stances.

My bet it the Fed will sound dovish until the dollar fall becomes a concern. So I would not bet on a dollar rally here and would also bet on dovishness by the Federal Reserve for the time being. There is correlation. If the dollar collapses look for the opposite.

I doubt if Germany wants to rock the boat right now.

Likewise the Fed is likely to sound dovish to counter the trade war downdraft that is causing worry. This needs to calm down before the holiday season.

Interesting. Sadly, the future is very cloudy given the din of trade war threats.

The dollar is ok so this should not be a problem right now, although if the dollar sells off then it may be a problem again.

The unknown is prompting worse outcomes regardless of what the final outcome is. We need finality on trade if nothing else to calm the market and settle things. The unknown is a big market negative in and of itself.

Actually, it is a wonder China's gradual weakening economy hasn't caused economic issues. Our trade war threats to them is the least of their problems and it sadly like hitting a dog that is already down. If China goes into a more severe unwinding the Yuan will devalue a lot more than it has declined already making the US more uncompetitive not less. China's government is trying to prop up their currency not the other way around and our trade war rhetoric is making matters worse not better.

I mean more the instability he is causing in the market with his proposals, not his state of mind. As you probably know, changes and threats of changes naturally disrupt markets despite whether they are for the good or not. That's why shaking them unnecessarily is not, in general, a good policy.

The issue is that a lot of the small drillers and oil companies are still barely able to pay their debt load. I don't believe that the ability to find oil is impossible, just that it requires a lot of Cap Ex which is why Exxon was not that eager to buy a lot in the downturn and can easily buy oil drilling assets now that oil prices are healthy again. Only the majors can play in the big oil drilling deals Shell, BP, Exxon, and the like can.

The real issue is Asian demand which is outpacing growth everywhere else. Their demand growth is not sustainable as their energy needs keep rising.

Thanks for the list. It is helpful and informative.