As you can see it seems rather dumb for people to be surprised earnings next year will slow. Likewise, earnings this quarter were generally good with most of the lower earnings coming from overseas and due to currency devaluation. This also is to be expected and is more a failure on the part of analysts than the companies.

The only major negative was the outsized effect of the tariffs on companies like Caterpillar and US Steel. The tariffs were bad for almost every company involved and further tariffs will do the same thing to other companies. Why? Because it is a tax on that industry and makes prices rise and consumption drop.

The tax cuts were the suggestion by a Republican led Congress. They were not Trump's idea.

Why is it not really showing up that much in spending then?

Hopefully it will hold today. Clearly there remains at least technical buyers in this selloff. That is a good sign.

I think it is mostly over, but give it today and tomorrow just to make sure. It says a lot if it is given the Federal Reserve gave no kind words to help the market and the President caused another day of selloff by rather than calming the market using the selloff to threaten trade wars with China yet again. I also detest Washington's potential regulatory statements against top American companies which came again during the selloff. I really wonder about this and it certainly adds to market uncertainty. Sadly, the Obama and Clinton administrations did much better calming market volatility. So much for the excellent market to run midterm elections on.

This is why everyone knows Trumps promise of further cuts is disingenuous. Even if he retains the house, which he won't, he will not get to cut taxes again without cutting into major government spending. That is unless the US wants to compete with Italy on who can reach the sad state Greece is in. The US has no EU to bail them out.

Gee wake up. This is not a good statement to issue when the stock market is tanking. And where is the Federal Reserve? We need calm and stability or people will be wishing for a former Presidency.

Given that you throw away alpha by paying fees, clearly the less fees you pay the better your relative performance will be. I am loathe to speak of Alpha at all when comparing anything besides stocks. Any Alpha you get is most likely countered by fees and performance gains are just a function of risk associated with the investments.

China has been slowly moving towards freer trade, but sadly it is difficult and slow. This is bad more for china than it is for the US because China even without a trade war is rapidly losing its manufacturing business to SE Asia. China needs to move up the value chain but can't move up into global banking because it still restricts the free flow of its currency, can't move strongly into creativity driven business which requires moving on a dime and being aware of the global economy when it censors information and restricts even tame things like freedom of religion, can't move into media and into the intellectual property business while it refuses to conform to international standards, and can't do global branding and business because the way it restricts international business in its own country.

Reciprocation is needed in International business and China can't do this because its business model doesn't really allow for fair trade and its legal system for business is not even stable for Chinese companies. It has lots of work to do and if anything, the US trade war makes it more competitive not less. If it were me, I'd end the trade war instantly. The US gets more out of China the way business is right now and there is no need to wake a sleeping dragon. The real threat to the US is when or if China gets its act together and competes in a manner the whole globe is willing to do business with. Right now it doesn't thus it makes stuff for the US and the US sells it under its own brands at a huge markup.

The Fed has been tightening knowing the cycle will end someday, but I don't think it wants to cause it to end. I think they would let up if they knew inflation will not increase which it will if Trump keeps up his increasing tax on all Chinese goods which is quickly turning into a tax on everything. Steel taxes are even hurting US steel companies. Talk about unintended consequences.

End the trade war and you slow the rate increases. I think the Federal reserve made that pretty clear to Trump already.