The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index's headline number is 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September.

Analyst Opinion of Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence has been on a multi-year upswing - and this upswing is roughly correlating with increases in consumer spending.

The consensus range from Econoday was 133.0 to 138.0 (consensus 136.0). This month's index is based on data collected through 18 October 2018.

Per Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

Consumer Confidence increased in October, following a modest gain in September, and remains at levels last seen in the fall of 2000 (September 2000, 142.5). Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions remains quite positive, primarily due to strong employment growth. The Expectations Index posted another gain in October, suggesting that consumers do not foresee the economy losing steam anytime soon. Rather, they expect the strong pace of growth to carry over into early 2019.

Analysis from Econoday:

The consumer confidence index continues to hold near 18-year highs, at 137.9 in October vs a revised 135.3 in September. The index remains within striking distance of the all-time high at 144.7 reached in 2000.

A closely watched reading in this report, one used by forecasters to track the monthly employment report, is pointing to increasing strength for the labor market. Those saying jobs are currently hard-to-get fell nearly 1 percentage point to 13.2 percent. Strength in the labor market is also indicated by a 1.8 percentage rise in a less closely watched reading: those who say jobs are currently plentiful which is now at 45.9 percent.

The 6-month outlook for jobs remains upbeat with 2 tenths more saying more jobs will open up, at 22.1 percent, and with fewer saying there will be fewer jobs ahead, down 9 tenths to 11.4 percent. And there's a positive signal from a key reading on the outlook side and that's the percentage who see their income rising, up 2.2 points to 24.7 percent.

Inflation expectations are at 4.8 percent which is subdued for this particular reading but nevertheless are up 1 tenth in the month. Buying plans are steady with autos inching higher at a solid 13.8 percent and with homes rising 2 tenths to a still moderate 6.4 percent.

Those who see interest rates rising over the next year are at a sizable 72.8 percent for a 4.7 percentage point rise in the month that no doubt is tied to the Federal Reserve's plans for further rate increases. On stocks, the sample's bullishness despite recent volatility continues to rise, to 44.5 percent and a 2.6 point monthly gain with bears down 2.6 points to 19.1 percent.

This report is unmistakably strong and points to not only a solid employment report but also hints at another month of strength for consumer spending.

Caveats Relating to CB Consumer Confidence

From the Conference Board:

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch.

Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen's Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry's only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90 percent of the world's population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

From Econoday:

The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.

Consumer confidence and retail sales generally move in tandem but not necessarily each and every month. Note that consumer assessments of employment conditions are heavily weighted in the consumer confidence index.