Very true, there is pent up demand that once it is filled then reveals the ugly truth, there is no V.

Here we go again, people borrowing almost all the equity in their houses. We know the next step is housing market default, real estate bonds and funds collapsing, and people calling for a bailout. Simply put, housing prices need to come down by making it impossible for people to buy or obtain loans over 80% of their equity. Yes it hurts current prices at the cost of bringing stability to the housing market in downturns and prevents bad players make bad deals that the taxpayers end up paying for.

Running a massive deficit to support the economy and people's well being in a downturn and a crisis is good economics. What is bad is all the other lines which should have cut the deficit or run surpluses during the upturn. What is bad economics is not now but prior to now. Save when the economy is good and spend when its bad to counter the cycle.

This is good news. There is no need for the Fed to purchase corporate bonds if rates are not rising and it's ability to do so later keeps the bond market stable. Likewise, even regular people are starting to figure out ETFs are jut nice ways of making you pay taxes on your gains annually and get bilged by management for administrative fees. If a company needs their bonds bailed out it's best for them to let the Federal Reserve know. Why should a government entity pay someone to mismanage their bond fund.

Small caps have been hammered. I think they will get a big bump when Corona is over.

As small business and sole proprietorships go under an even greater percentage of the population will end up in poverty with virtually no way out. The denial to continue Corona downturn aid will end up hurting the economy for years to come adding injury to insult. The author is right that this decline in small businesses is endemic and will only get worse as time goes on.

Most options are synthetically hedged even if they aren't recognized as such often through owning the stock before selling the option or vice versus. Big players may even be hedging their S&P 500 or other index with options. And of course market makers use options all the time to hedge against themselves often neutralizing their positions completely. Indeed, if you think most options are not hedged or done with maximum leverage there would be a significant problem.

A big risk is more often than not, failing to hedge when you have a substantial position.

A full stop for those working makes sense for those making low wages and those who can't find a decent job with decent pay to live in a way have already have gone full stop in some sense of the word. I doubt those making a high wage will ever stop while the system runs although they may complain as to why there is no food, toilet paper, or other goods. By and large the US an get most of what it wants in this scenario simply by importing from countries that are happy to produce goods from cheap laborers who need to work so they don't starve to death.

This will be a hard scenario to envision.

Weak oil prices are on purpose to keep small oil producers offline and shut down. The author is correct that a lot of this is seasonal. That said, the US oil production surge has been bad for the US in particular as they shutter and throw gaping holes in banks balance sheets as they declare bankruptcies. Causing US oil booms that lead to busts is dumb, especially with borrowed money and huge losses. This is especially true when the US buys oil and dumps it back into the ground to support prices.

The real estate market tends to be a giant receptacle for accumulating excess cash and is one of the first assets to build an asset bubble. These assets are acquired with leverage which exacerbates leverage in the system and the asset prices are not liquid, meaning the price can fall easily and when they fall, the debt does not have adequate assets to stay solvent and leads to an even greater price drop. The addition of derivative in the housing and real estate market only elevates this volatility and divorces the banks and people who would normally have an interest in the real estate. Thus with real estate being an asset that requires constant administration costs, there is literally no one who wants to pay the taxes or administration of assets and thus the property depreciates further. Real Estate will typically fall first before the stock market does for two simple reasons. It's asset price is not standardized or fixed and it is an asset that requires cash flow to maintain making it arguably a wasting asset. And it is more leveraged than stocks typically are excluding option positions.