Technically Gaza and the WB are under the same entity, the Palestinian Authority. There are multiple parties. Abbas leads Fatah. Fatah was deeply surprised in the last elections (2005 or 2006) and has basically cancelled all elections since. They were physically pushed out of Gaza by Hamas (throwing people off buildings etc...). I *think* Fatah won in the last elections in the WB districts, but they also maintain the security forces there - ensuring Hamas hasn't challenged them yet. They lock up Hamas people all the time. But Hamas may well try now.
Hamas is a shoe-in because of their unerring dedication to Israel's destruction as compared to Fatah's deep deep deep corruption.
You have Western eyes. Whichever party delivers the tangible goodies (peace, prosperity, freedom) wins. But there are other eyes, *one* of which is: whichever party delivers Arab/Islamic honor wins. That can be more important than life or even tangible success in delivering victory.
I'm not suggesting making peace with Hamas. But Gazan population is made up of clans, each of which have a very different relationship to Hamas. As much as we like to imagine mass groups of people as perfectly unified blocks, once you scratch the surface a different and more complex reality tends to emerge.
You can't be sure. But there are 2 million people in Gaza - you'll only allow a relatively small number in. And Israel has data on many of these people. They know the relationships, the families, the structure of the terror organizations. I would venture Israel can have a very good idea of risk levels of families before you let anybody in. And, again, collaborators have already been let in - although AFAIK their treatment once here hasn't been awesome.
They apply via an app and go to Egypt - a perfectly normal thing to do - from whence they can be brought over.
This model isn't unheard of either. The West brought over refusniks and collaborators from the Soviet Union. It was hard and thus quite limited, but there were pathways. They tended to go through third-party countries. These people ended up being great allies in the combat with the evil empire.
Some collaborators already brought over (like the Green Prince) fall into the same bucket.
The moderates are always in the minority (at least in terms of volume) in the midst of this sort of violence. Roll back a month and the situation was quite different. Roll forward and it could be much worse or somewhat better.
I've had moderate Jewish friends of mine question whether any Arabs were interested in living in peace. This is something they never would have thought a month ago - they work with Arabs and interact on a regular basis. I'm sure there are Arabs in exactly the same boat. The extremism of radicals forces people into their corners and it is very hard to pull them back out.
What happens if you fail to do so, though?
We don't need to look at Israel to see the answer to this question.
Not quite. I think Ra'am draws more from the Beduin population in the South (Rahat, Be'er Sheva) where we haven't seen the same rioting. There's a mistake in drawing a single line between Arab and Jew. Both the Jewish and Arab populations (even the Palestinian population), has many different groups with many different experiences, perspectives and interests. That is critical for the future. The harder the lines are drawn (and the fewer lines are drawn) the worse the reality.
Trevor's is an interesting question. I think the answer in the case of the kid is you can do enough to stop the kid from hurting you. Note that if Israel just wanted to kill, they could kill tens or hundreds of thousands in hours. If Israel doesn't go in, a few hundred, or many a thousand will die. They are holding their punches, but they are also not allowing Hamas to hide in media buildings or under residential buildings or all the other places they have stashed rockets. Allowing that sort of behavior just encourages it - treating those places as untouchable just encourages them to store weapons there and launch them from there.
The world's eyes are on Israel. You see condemnations from places like China - or are eliminating an entire culture because of a few knife attacks. Or Syria, where hundreds of thousands have died in the recent civil war and back in the 80s 20-50,000 were killed over a weekend. Or Turkey which, due to a few casualties, invaded Northern Syria and killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands. Or the West which killed thousands in Libya when they weren't even threatened. Proportionally, more Israelis were killed in the Second Intifada than Americans on 9/11. And yet America responded with massive wars that killed huge numbers in Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm not saying the situation is good - but the responses of the world can be a little self-serving when coming from people who regularly do far worse in their own defense.
But the real problem with Trevor Noah's argument is that Hamas does not stand alone. They have a big brother in the north (Hizbullah) and they have a really big brother in Iran (also Hizbullah). The Lebanese branch has the power to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses. It seems, if the missile from Dimona is an example, that Israel would also face attacks from Yemen. But Iran is holding back because they are waiting for the power to erase Israel. They are waiting for nukes. In a multi-front war between Iran (from Syria), Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, Israel is no longer overwhelmingly powerful. It's survival is very much in doubt. Because Hamas decided to attack, Israel has the chance to remove one of those fronts now. I think that's why they are taking it.
And that comes back to the crux of the issue. Over 40% of Israel's population comes from Muslim governed countries. Those countries lost 99% of their Jewish population between 1948 and now. This was ethnic cleansing on a grand and incredibly effective scale. My sister-in-law's family is from Afghanistan and Egypt, my nephew just married a girl from Yemen, my ex-brother-in-law was from Iran, my street corona prayer group has people from Iraq and Morocco. All their former communities have been completely erased. Continental Europe, by contrast, removed only 80% of their Jews from before the Holocaust until today (and that was with the Holocaust).
The *reason* Israel has the military power it has is because it is the stated goal of Hamas, Iran and others to finish the job. They want to kill or expel all Jews from Israel. Quite simply, we're done running. I'm a dual citizen, I can run to the US. But the vast majority of Israeli Jews can't. We've run/been forced home and we've developed the ability to fight back and we'll hold our punches but we won't simply let our people get shot at. The time for Jews passively watching as people try to kill them has passed. The Chinese, Americans, Syrians, Turks and others don't do it, so why should we?
The best solution, of course, is to bring the ethnic conflict to a close. This is what I'm hopeful for. In my opinion, the very possibility of this is what sparked this war. Hamas exists to kill Jews and destroy Israel. They can't afford to have peace break out in a region of war.
Noah make fun of Kushner, but the Abraham Accords were the most important thing to happen here in decades. Kushner achieved more than anybody since the age of Sadat. I argue he achieved more. Egyptians hate Israel, but Israel has a warm relationship with the UAE etc...
I could see this, but Netanyahu gaining something from this (which apparently he has) was extremely uncertain. He literally could be kicked out of government today if Ra'am, Bennet and Lapid had done what I suggested. The benefits for Bibi were uncertain. The benefits for Hamas and Fatah - in terms of maintaining their position - were undeniable.
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Things You Can't See From There
Technically Gaza and the WB are under the same entity, the Palestinian Authority. There are multiple parties. Abbas leads Fatah. Fatah was deeply surprised in the last elections (2005 or 2006) and has basically cancelled all elections since. They were physically pushed out of Gaza by Hamas (throwing people off buildings etc...). I *think* Fatah won in the last elections in the WB districts, but they also maintain the security forces there - ensuring Hamas hasn't challenged them yet. They lock up Hamas people all the time. But Hamas may well try now.
Hamas is a shoe-in because of their unerring dedication to Israel's destruction as compared to Fatah's deep deep deep corruption.
You have Western eyes. Whichever party delivers the tangible goodies (peace, prosperity, freedom) wins. But there are other eyes, *one* of which is: whichever party delivers Arab/Islamic honor wins. That can be more important than life or even tangible success in delivering victory.
A Golden Bridge For Gaza
I'm not suggesting making peace with Hamas. But Gazan population is made up of clans, each of which have a very different relationship to Hamas. As much as we like to imagine mass groups of people as perfectly unified blocks, once you scratch the surface a different and more complex reality tends to emerge.
A Golden Bridge For Gaza
You can't be sure. But there are 2 million people in Gaza - you'll only allow a relatively small number in. And Israel has data on many of these people. They know the relationships, the families, the structure of the terror organizations. I would venture Israel can have a very good idea of risk levels of families before you let anybody in. And, again, collaborators have already been let in - although AFAIK their treatment once here hasn't been awesome.
A Golden Bridge For Gaza
They apply via an app and go to Egypt - a perfectly normal thing to do - from whence they can be brought over.
This model isn't unheard of either. The West brought over refusniks and collaborators from the Soviet Union. It was hard and thus quite limited, but there were pathways. They tended to go through third-party countries. These people ended up being great allies in the combat with the evil empire.
Some collaborators already brought over (like the Green Prince) fall into the same bucket.
A Golden Bridge For Gaza
Hamas would never agree, you'd do it unilaterally.
A Golden Bridge For Gaza
The moderates are always in the minority (at least in terms of volume) in the midst of this sort of violence. Roll back a month and the situation was quite different. Roll forward and it could be much worse or somewhat better.
I've had moderate Jewish friends of mine question whether any Arabs were interested in living in peace. This is something they never would have thought a month ago - they work with Arabs and interact on a regular basis. I'm sure there are Arabs in exactly the same boat. The extremism of radicals forces people into their corners and it is very hard to pull them back out.
What happens if you fail to do so, though?
We don't need to look at Israel to see the answer to this question.
The answer is horrifying.
Things You Can't See From There
Not quite. I think Ra'am draws more from the Beduin population in the South (Rahat, Be'er Sheva) where we haven't seen the same rioting. There's a mistake in drawing a single line between Arab and Jew. Both the Jewish and Arab populations (even the Palestinian population), has many different groups with many different experiences, perspectives and interests. That is critical for the future. The harder the lines are drawn (and the fewer lines are drawn) the worse the reality.
Things You Can't See From There
Trevor's is an interesting question. I think the answer in the case of the kid is you can do enough to stop the kid from hurting you. Note that if Israel just wanted to kill, they could kill tens or hundreds of thousands in hours. If Israel doesn't go in, a few hundred, or many a thousand will die. They are holding their punches, but they are also not allowing Hamas to hide in media buildings or under residential buildings or all the other places they have stashed rockets. Allowing that sort of behavior just encourages it - treating those places as untouchable just encourages them to store weapons there and launch them from there.
The world's eyes are on Israel. You see condemnations from places like China - or are eliminating an entire culture because of a few knife attacks. Or Syria, where hundreds of thousands have died in the recent civil war and back in the 80s 20-50,000 were killed over a weekend. Or Turkey which, due to a few casualties, invaded Northern Syria and killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands. Or the West which killed thousands in Libya when they weren't even threatened. Proportionally, more Israelis were killed in the Second Intifada than Americans on 9/11. And yet America responded with massive wars that killed huge numbers in Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm not saying the situation is good - but the responses of the world can be a little self-serving when coming from people who regularly do far worse in their own defense.
But the real problem with Trevor Noah's argument is that Hamas does not stand alone. They have a big brother in the north (Hizbullah) and they have a really big brother in Iran (also Hizbullah). The Lebanese branch has the power to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses. It seems, if the missile from Dimona is an example, that Israel would also face attacks from Yemen. But Iran is holding back because they are waiting for the power to erase Israel. They are waiting for nukes. In a multi-front war between Iran (from Syria), Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, Israel is no longer overwhelmingly powerful. It's survival is very much in doubt. Because Hamas decided to attack, Israel has the chance to remove one of those fronts now. I think that's why they are taking it.
And that comes back to the crux of the issue. Over 40% of Israel's population comes from Muslim governed countries. Those countries lost 99% of their Jewish population between 1948 and now. This was ethnic cleansing on a grand and incredibly effective scale. My sister-in-law's family is from Afghanistan and Egypt, my nephew just married a girl from Yemen, my ex-brother-in-law was from Iran, my street corona prayer group has people from Iraq and Morocco. All their former communities have been completely erased. Continental Europe, by contrast, removed only 80% of their Jews from before the Holocaust until today (and that was with the Holocaust).
The *reason* Israel has the military power it has is because it is the stated goal of Hamas, Iran and others to finish the job. They want to kill or expel all Jews from Israel. Quite simply, we're done running. I'm a dual citizen, I can run to the US. But the vast majority of Israeli Jews can't. We've run/been forced home and we've developed the ability to fight back and we'll hold our punches but we won't simply let our people get shot at. The time for Jews passively watching as people try to kill them has passed. The Chinese, Americans, Syrians, Turks and others don't do it, so why should we?
The best solution, of course, is to bring the ethnic conflict to a close. This is what I'm hopeful for. In my opinion, the very possibility of this is what sparked this war. Hamas exists to kill Jews and destroy Israel. They can't afford to have peace break out in a region of war.
Noah make fun of Kushner, but the Abraham Accords were the most important thing to happen here in decades. Kushner achieved more than anybody since the age of Sadat. I argue he achieved more. Egyptians hate Israel, but Israel has a warm relationship with the UAE etc...
Things You Can't See From There
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb91olkUV3w
Things You Can't See From There
I could see this, but Netanyahu gaining something from this (which apparently he has) was extremely uncertain. He literally could be kicked out of government today if Ra'am, Bennet and Lapid had done what I suggested. The benefits for Bibi were uncertain. The benefits for Hamas and Fatah - in terms of maintaining their position - were undeniable.