Jim Boswell Blog | Inflation and Globanomics | TalkMarkets
Executive Director, Quanta Analytics
Contributor's Links: Globanomics
Author of Globanomics. Jim has nearly fifty years of professional experience in the development of management information and analytical business decision support systems. Broadly disciplined with exceptional experience. Education includes an MBA from the Wharton School-University of Pennsylvania, ...more

Inflation and Globanomics

Date: Friday, June 10, 2022 8:24 AM EDT

Inflation is the subject for today.  The current (most recent) inflation numbers for the United States will come out shortly (this morning at 8:30 a.m.).  But i am not going to talk about inflation in those terms, so if that is your interest then you might as well quit reading right now... 

Instead i am going to talk about how "inflation" will work in globanomics--understanding that globanomics is currently not in play.  If globanomics was in play inflation would not be the main conversation in town (especially the town audience of Fox TV, who ignore even more important globanomic principals than inflation (e.g., globanomics' preference for freedom over subjugation--authoritarianism)., 

You must understand, however, that currently my globanomic theory has not yet been accepted worldwide, let alone Fox TV.  In fact, globanomics probably has not been accepted outside of a small group that probably numbers less than ten.  But that does not matter for the time being.  Globanomics will come to the world over time--but we first need to get over our negative "nationalistic" tendencies--and someday we will.

Within the theory of globanomics, the goal for inflation is to keep inflation as close to "zero" in the United States as possible.  Period.  Low inflation in the United States helps the poor countries of the world.  High inflation helps the rich countries of the world. 

The goal of globanomics is to narrow the relative gap between the rich and poor, while also maintaining reasonable growth for the rich.  The goal of globanomics is to increase the size of the economic pie, it is not to divy out shares of a static or declining economic pie.  Low inflation is a stimulant for growing the economic pie.

Because of its unquestionable dominance in the financial, business, and economic world, the United States is the "most risk free nation" in the world.  Risk is what determines interest rates, and the less risk there is, the lower interest rates can be.  Interest rates essentially go hand in hand with inflation.  In fact, you can almost equate interest rates in the United States to inflation in the United States (i.e., as long as the Federal Reserve does not make the mistake that it did in the 1990s through 2008 which resulted in the financial collapse of 2008).  Watching the Federal Reserve today, i think they finally learned the lesson that their disgraced Greenspan never learned.

Interest rates in the United States has a carryover affect to the rest of the world.  If the interest rates go high in the United States (the most risk free nation in the world) what do you think happens to the interest rates of more-risky countries?  Enough said on that.

Regardless, the goal of globanomics will be to keep inflation low in the United States.  Lower interest rates (lower inflation) promotes growth.  Higher interest rates (higher inflation) stunts growth.

Over the past thirty-years we were able to get a good since of how inflation would work in globanomics.  Globalization is a subset of globanomics--and globalization has been good in terms of taming inflation tendencies world wide.  In fact, inflation in the United States over the past thirty plus years has averaged almost less than 2.0%--very, very good.  Thank you globalization.

What has caused the current rise in inflation?  Primarily, two things.  One was somewhat outside of our control--the pandemic.  And the other was somewhat man made (i.e., Putin made) with Putin's War, which shook up the energy prices.  Without Putin's War, we could probably have handled the impact of inflation due to the pandemic and without much turmoil, but Putin's War through a significant added wrench into the works--and that is what we are dealing with today.  Without Putin's War, inflation from the pandemic would be on the decline.  With Putin's War, inflation won't decline until we adjust our energy situation--which we will over time.  Screw you Putin.

Putin's War is antithetical to globanomics.  All you have to do is read the basic principals of globanomics to understand that.  So no one can blame inflation on globanomics, or on globalization.  Blame the current problem with inflation where it lies.  Some due to the after effects of the pandemic, but mostly due to the turmoil of Putin's War on energy prices (and food prices).

So people, if you want to get back to the goal of low inflation, quit making war, reduce the possibility of future pandemics, don't let meteors strike the earth, keep the aliens away, etc.. 

Summarzing.  Globanomics promotes low inflation and low interest rates worldwide.  That is an expected result of globanomics.  But that means nations must quit sparring against each other.  Instead, all nations must work together like a "global" whole--thus the term "globa-nomics".

Onward and upward.  Some day.  With Globanomics and "love" being used as its focal point.

p.s. Globanomics supports the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capital.  Anyone who reads Globanomics (click on the Contributor's Link by my picture above to get a copy) will see that support explained in more detail.

 

 

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Comments

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George Lipton 1 year ago Member's comment

So what did the CPI numbers say?

Jim Boswell 1 year ago Author's comment

Inflation (about 8.5%) has not been this high since 1981.  That was the year i left to go to Wharton, leaving my job working in the Basic Energy Sciences program at the Department of Energy during another energy crisis.  Inflation is not good, but don't sweat it.  Adjustments will be made and the oil guys will not have the last laugh.  Once this period is over (probably no more than a year), my bet is for another long period of "low inflation", that is, as long as we can avoid other future "natural" and "manmade" disasters.

George Lipton 1 year ago Member's comment

Makes sense, thanks.

Carl Schwartz 1 year ago Member's comment

There was an article about the CPI numbers on the homepage:
https://talkmarkets.com/content/consumer-price-index-may-headline-at-858?post=357494