Jim Boswell Blog | Here Is What I Think | TalkMarkets
Executive Director, Quanta Analytics
Contributor's Links: Globanomics
Author of Globanomics. Jim has nearly fifty years of professional experience in the development of management information and analytical business decision support systems. Broadly disciplined with exceptional experience. Education includes an MBA from the Wharton School-University of Pennsylvania, ...more

Here Is What I Think

Date: Thursday, July 28, 2022 9:37 AM EDT

I just watched about five economists on CNBC analyze the latest GDP numbers.  And what i discovered from them is that they had about ten different answers.  Typical for a group of economists.

Now here is what i think about the U.S. economy.  

It's time to be bullish and time to invest in the U.S. economy.  I am all in.  And here is my rationale.

  1. Never ever bet against the U.S.--it is the U.S. that drives the world economy--all other nations, including China, are simply supporting players.
  2. The inflation that we have been experiencing is going to start dropping and when it does it is going to drop fast.
  3. The job market even if it starts to slow is still quite robust.
  4. This Congressional "chip bill" is an extremely good thing for our long-term economy (investments in chip and battery technology are sure bets), especially when you consider U.S. technology.
  5. The markets have already priced in a moderate recession--and this recession is going to be soft or moderate at the worse.

What could screw up my optimistic forecast?  Not much really, other than the "free world" conceding to the "authoritarian world".  The primary reason for the current poor economic numbers is Putin's War.  Take Putin's War away, and the world's economy would be progressing ahead like a fast-moving train.  I will admit that it is sad that we have to wait for Putin to come to his senses, but that is simply the situation at the current time.  

As one who supports peace worldwide, i hate to admit it, but it's time to get "hawkish" with Russia.  It's time to start sinking ships on the Black Sea.  It's time to give Ukraine fighter jets.  It's time to start taking back areas of Ukraine that were lost in the first six months of fighting.  Essentially, it is time for the "free world" to go all in against Putin.

And there is no better time for Biden to be talking to Jinping like he is today.  And forcefully.  Russia made a mistake about the will of the "free world" and Russia is and will continue to pay for that mistake.  Joe needs to warn Xi not to make the same mistake.

Look, the world may seem crazy, but it really is not.  Smart people make smart decisions (unless of course you are an arrogant economist and/or your name is Vladimir Putin).  Joe is smart and Xi is smart.  What is good for the "free world" is good for China, too--that is, if China wants to continue to be any kind of player in world events.

So, hang in there, everyone.  Things are not nearly as bad as a lot of people are telling you.  It's time to get back into the markets.  Globanomics is coming.  It's just going to take a little more time.  So, if you have not yet purchased your ticked on the United Express, you better get to the ticket booth because you won't want to miss the ride. 

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Alexis Renault 3 years ago Member's comment

Doesn't all this inflation mean we are in a recession?  If everything is more expensive, but we are making the same or even less, that can't be good.

Jim Boswell 3 years ago Author's comment

Inflation is not good, but it is the price we are paying now to help Ukraine and defend "freedom".   The cost is worth the price.  Inflation will not be with us much longer as things settle out.  So, hang in there.