Bert Colijn is a Senior Eurozone Economist at ING. He joined the firm in July 2015 and covers the global economy with a specific focus on the Eurozone. Prior to this, he worked at The Conference Board, a global think-tank, in Brussels focusing mostly on long-term economic growth. He holds an undergraduate and graduate degree in International Economics and Business from the University of Groningen.
Carsten Brzeski is Chief Economist in Germany. He covers economic and political developments in Germany and the Eurozone, including the monetary policy of the ECB. Previously, he has worked at ABN Amro, the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the European Commission. Carsten has studied at the Free University of Berlin, Northeastern University in Boston and Harvard University in Cambridge, USA.
Jeroen is Global Head of Sector Research, based in Amsterdam. He started working for ING Financial Markets in 2001. His main focus is investment grade credit strategy with a particular focus on relative value. Previously, he was with ABN AMRO.
Maarten Leen is the Head of Macroeconomics. Previously, he worked at Rabobank and the Central Bureau of Statistics in the Netherlands. Between 1986 and 1992, he was a policy advisor to the Dutch minister of Finance. Maarten studied Economics at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam and has been with ING since 1995.
Charlotte de Montpellier is an Economist in ING Belgium covering Switzerland. She joined the firm in February 2018. Prior to this, she worked as a research and teaching assistant at Université Catholique de Louvain and at the economic research institute IRES in Belgium.
Franziska is an Economist in Frankfurt. She mainly covers the German and Austrian economies. She joined ING in September 2020 after finishing her masters’ degree in economics at Justus-Liebig-University Gießen. Prior to joining ING, she worked at ODDO BHF’s Investment office.
Alyssa joined ING’s Credit Research team in 2019 covering European consumer goods, having worked in the Equity department at ING since 2016. Prior to this, Alyssa worked at NIBC markets as part of the equity sales team covering the UK market from 2014 to 2016.
Antoine is a Senior Rates Strategist covering developed rates markets. He bases his views on macro developments spanning economics, central banks, supply, and cross-markets dynamics, and finds the optimal way to implement them using quantitative methods. He previously worked at Mizuho international as a Rates Strategist and at MUFG as a Rates Trader.
Benjamin Schroeder is a senior rates strategist at ING in Amsterdam. Before joining ING in 2016, he worked in fixed income research at Dresdner Kleinwort and Commerzbank in Frankfurt, Germany. Benjamin holds a master’s degree in economics from the University of Bonn, Germany.
Chris is Head of FX Strategy at ING. Together with his team, he provides short and medium-term FX recommendations for ING’s corporate and institutional client base. Prior to joining ING in 2005, he was a senior partner and head of FX research at IDEAglobal, a research consultancy specialising in independent financial market research for the investment banking, hedge fund and central bank community. He holds a BSc in Economics and Accounting from Bristol University.
Francesco is an FX Strategist and has been with the firm since May 2019. His main focus is on the G10 space and, in particular, commodity currencies. He began his career at Credit Agricole CIB and holds an MSc in Financial Markets and Investments
Dimitry Fleming is a Senior Economist in Amsterdam. He joined the firm in 2001 and in addition to covering macroeconomic developments, he focuses on the banking market. Dimitry studied International Financial Economics at the University of Amsterdam.
Dmitry is Chief Economist covering Russia and CIS countries. He joined ING in 2018 and has a decade of experience in macroeconomics and FX strategy with Alfa-Bank and Gazprombank. Dmitry graduated from the Lomonosov Moscow State University and has also studied at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics and ESSEC Business School.
As an economist with an affinity for IT and digital topics, Teunis researches trends in digital finance, innovation and their regulation (such as the increasing importance of data, fintech, platforms, digital currencies, blockchain, …) on banks and the broader economy. He started his career at the Dutch central bank and has been with ING since 2010. Teunis holds MA degrees in both Economics and Philosophy of Science from Tilburg University.
Egor is a senior credit analyst with 15-years of experience in the Russian debt market. He joined ING in 2011 and covers more than 60 non-financial and financial issuers from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Azerbaijan, offers credit opinion and provides in-depth analysis on Russian and CIS credit markets. Prior to this, he was at the Bank of Moscow and has a Masters in finance diploma from State University - Higher School of Economics.
Oleksiy Soroka is a senior high yield credit research analyst with extensive experience in global emerging markets and the European high yield market. Previously, he was with Allianz Global Investors, Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas. He joined the firm in 2019 and is based in London. Oleksiy is a CFA charterholder.
Gerben Hieminga is a Senior Economist covering energy markets and sustainability. He joined the firm in 2004 and previously used to work for the real estate team. He holds an undergraduate degree in economics and building engineering and a graduate degree in monetary economics from the University of Tilburg.
Thijs Geijer is a Senior Economist covering the Food and Agriculture sector. He joined ING in 2012 after three years at Rabobank. Thijs studied Economic Geography at Utrecht University.
Timothy Rahill is a credit strategist at ING Bank in Amsterdam. He joined the Bank straight out of University in 2019, after relocating to the Netherlands from Dublin. He graduated from Technical University Dublin, with a Finance degree. Timothy’s strategy coverage includes European and US markets, ranging from investment grade to high yield credit.
Warren Patterson is Head of Commodities strategy based in Singapore. He joined the bank in April 2016 and covers the entire commodities complex. Previously, he worked at a commodities trade house in London. He graduated from Cass Business School, where he studied Investment and Financial Risk Management.
Wenyu Yao is a senior commodity strategist covering industrial metals and energy markets. She joined ING in June 2019, having previously worked at Refinitiv in London. She began her career in a dual role at Antaike and the Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association in Beijing and holds an MSc in Finance.
Inga Fechner is an economist at ING in Germany, covering international economic developments with a specific focus on Austria. She joined the company in 2014 after graduating in Economics from the University of Münster, with studies abroad in Japan and Italy.
Iris Pang is the economist for Greater China, joining ING Wholesale banking in 2017. Iris was previously employed by Natixis and OCBC Wing Hang Bank. She earned a PhD in economics from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
James Knightley is the Chief International Economist in London. He joined the firm in 1998 and has been covering G7 and Western European economies. He studied economics at Durham University, UK.
James is a Developed Market economist, with primary responsibility for coverage of the UK economy and the Bank of England. As part of the wider team in London, he also spends time looking at the US economy, the Fed, Brexit and Trump's policies. He graduated from the University of Bath with a degree in Economics and joined ING in August 2015.
Joanna Konings is a senior economist working on international trade issues and joined ING in 2017 from the Bank of England. She studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Durham University and holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London.
Julien Manceaux is ING’s Senior Economist for France, Switzerland and Belgian real estate. He holds a MA in macroeconomics and is currently based in Brussels. Before joining ING, he worked in the public sector as an external trade specialist.
Jurjen focuses on energy transition research and looks at developments in key sectors such as power, industrials, transport and real estate. He joined the firm in 2004 and holds a master’s degree in economics from the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
Karol Pogorzelski is a member of the economic research team at ING Poland, responsible for public finance and macroeconomic research, as well as consumer finance surveys. Karol previously worked for the Institute for Structural Research and Deloitte. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Warsaw and MA degrees in economics and philosophy.
Dawid Pachucki is a senior economist at ING in Poland, who joined the team in 2020. For almost 20 years, he has been working at the Ministry of finance, where his last position was Director of the Public Debt Department. He was educated at the University of Warsaw.
Piotr Popławski is a member of the economic research team at ING Poland, primarily responsible for market research. Piotr previously worked as an economist and strategist in some of the key European banking groups such as BNP and Rabobank. He also was part of research projects in areas of healthcare and public finance, notably Fit for Work. Piotr is a Warsaw School of Economics graduate.
Rafal Benecki is a Chief Economist at ING in Poland, joining in 2005. Prior to this, he was the head of the Economic Analysis Bureau at Millennium Bank in Warsaw. He has an MSc in Financial Economics from Queen Mary University of London.
Rico Luman is a senior sector economist with a focus on transport, logistics and the automotive industry. He also looks at ports economics and mobility in general. Formerly he worked as a credit analyst and joined ING in 2001. Rico studied economics as well as law at the University of Amsterdam.
Samuel Abettan is a Junior Economist, mainly covering France. He joined ING in October 2020 after graduating with a master's degree in international economics and business from Université Paris Dauphine-PSL in France. Samuel is based in Brussels.
Marcel Klok is a Senior Economist at ING Netherlands. Based in Amsterdam, he covers the Dutch economy. A graduate of the University of Groningen, Marcel has worked for the Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Netherlands and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Marieke Blom is Chief Economist, the Netherlands.
Marten van Garderen is a senior economist based in the Netherlands. He has many years of experience in conducting research on consumer preferences. Before joining ING, he worked for the government as a financial policy advisor and has an MSc in economics from the University of Groningen.
Maurice van Sante is a Senior Economist covering the construction and real estate sectors. He joined ING in 1998 and till 2006 he was a treasury advisor and cash manager consultant. Maurice studied Economics at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam.
Edse Dantuma is a Senior Economist covering Healthcare and the Public sector. After working for the government for a few years, he joined ING in 2006, where he was a sector banker for two years. Edse studied Economics at Groningen University.
Muhammet Mercan is Chief Economist at ING, Turkey. Previously, he was an economist at Yapi Kredi and HSBC Securities. He is a part-time lecturer at Bilgi University and holds a PhD degree in banking from Marmara University.
Nadège covers the European utilities and is a specialist in the green bonds sector. She joined ING's Credit Research team in 2014 after working for several Dutch and British asset managers. Prior to this, Nadège worked at Mckinsey as a specialist in the telecoms and corporate finance sectors.
Ferdinand Nijboer is a Senior Economist covering the technology, media and telecoms sector. He joined ING in 2001, where he was a risk analyst for five years. Ferdinand holds a Master’s degree in Economics from Groningen University and in Risk Management from VU Amsterdam.
Nicholas is a senior economist covering the Philippines market from Manila. Before joining ING in September 2018, he worked as an associate economist at the Treasury Department of the Bank of the Philippine Islands and as a researcher at the University of Asia and the Pacific and the Central Bank of the Philippines. Nicholas has an MBA from the Kelley School of Business of Indiana University and an MA in Economics from Vanderbilt University.
Owen Thomas is the Managing Editor of ING Research, based in London. He joined ING from Saxo Bank in Copenhagen in July 2015. He moved into the banking sector after a long career in journalism. For many years he was an anchor for some of the world’s most respected broadcasters, notably BBC World News, CNN and Bloomberg TV.
Padhraic Garvey is the Regional Head of Research, Americas. He's based in New York. His brief spans both developed and emerging markets and he specialises in global rates and macro relative value. He worked for Cambridge Econometrics and ABN Amro before joining ING. He holds a Masters degree in Economics from University College Dublin and is a CFA charterholder.
Paolo Pizzoli is a senior economist covering Italy and Greece. He joined the firm in 1997 after working at Banca Akros, Banca Euromobiliare, ENI, and Prometeia. Paolo studied at the University of Bologna and the Univerisity of Warwick and holds a Master's in Energy and Environmental Economics from ENI in Italy.
Peter Vanden Houte is Chief Economist, Belgium, Luxembourg. He has has been working with ING in various research functions for more than 20 years. He is also vice-chairman of the “economic commission” at the Belgian Employers Federation.
Peter Virovacz is a Senior Economist in Hungary, joining ING in 2016. Prior to that, he has worked at Szazadveg Economic Research Institute and the Fiscal Council of Hungary. Peter studied at the Corvinus University of Budapest.
Philippe Ledent is a Senior Economist at ING Belgium. He’s responsible for economic scenario and structural research on Belgium and Luxembourg. Philippe also teaches in French and Belgian universities and since 2009 has been a regular columnist in the Belgian economic review. Previously, he worked at the Catholic University of Louvain.
Prakash Sakpal is a Senior Economist in Asia where he covers the entire region, excluding Japan. He started his career with ING in 1995 in India, moved to Hong Kong in 1998 and is now in Singapore where he has been since 2004.
Robert Carnell is Regional Head of Research, Asia-Pacific, based in Singapore. For the previous 13 years, he was Chief International Economist in London and has also worked for Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Schroder Investment Management, and the UK Government Economic Service in a career spanning more than 25 years. Robert has a Masters degree in Economics from McMaster University, Canada, and a first-class honours degree from Salford University.
Timme is an economist covering International Trade. He joined ING in 2016 after finishing his studies at the University of Groningen and Robert Gordon University.
In his role as a consumer economist, Sebastian works on behavioural economics and financial literacy. He is also the German lead for the ING International survey. After graduating in economics and business administration from the Leibniz University of Hannover, he worked for ING as treasurer and investment product manager before joining the research team.
Maureen is a CFA charterholder.
Steven Trypsteen joined ING in 2016 and covers Spain and Portugal. Prior to this, he lectured at the University of Nottingham from where he has a PhD in Economics and an MSc in Economics and Econometrics. Steven is based in Brussels.
Suvi Platerink works as Senior Sector Strategist for the ING Credit Research team in Amsterdam. Her coverage spans from Benelux to large European banks. Suvi joined ING in 2014 from Nordea. She has gathered experience in financial markets since 2005 focusing on bank credit and equity research as well as European fixed income markets.
Raoul Leering is the Head of International Trade Analysis, joining ING in 2014. Previously he worked at the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Het Financieele Dagblad and the Dutch trade union FNV.
Valentin is an economist at ING in Bucharest, covering Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia. He joined ING in 2007 as a trader and graduated with an MSc in Economics from the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies.
Stronger-than-expected growth in China, de-escalating tensions in the Middle East and the signing of the Sino-American phase-one deal should all pave the way for a good week for risk sentiment. In FX, the New Zealand dollar may lead the pack and move on up, as M People might have put it, while JPY looks set to break the 110 level
Heather Small of M People moved on up in 1993
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EUR: Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
EUR/USD 1.1107 |
Neutral | 1.1065 - 1.1180 | 1.1100 |
- Barring any week-end surprises out of the Middle East, risk sentiment should start the week on the front foot and be mildly supportive for the dollar against the low yielders such as the EUR. The highlight of the week, in theory, should be the signing of the phase-one of the trade deal in Washington on Wednesday. Warm words should be backed on the macro side, where our team see Chinese 4Q19 GDP (released Friday) beating the 6.0% consensus figure. In terms of US data, we’ll get updates on inflation, retail sales and industrial production. The soft December manufacturing ISM reading is still sending warning signals over the industrial sector, but there are no signs yet that weakness here is spreading to other sectors. And notably even events in the Middle East did not budge the market from its thinking that the Fed policy rate will remain untouched throughout 1H20.
- The European data calendar is relatively quiet. We’ll see November industrial production data on Wednesday and the minutes of the December European central bank meeting. The focus here will probably be on what is to be expected of the strategic review on monetary policy, e.g. a change in the inflation target. EUR/USD has started the year in a quiet fashion despite events in the Middle East and at the margin is showing a negative correlation with risk – as the EUR builds out its status as a funding currency.
JPY: Breaking into a new range?
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
USD/JPY 109.58 |
Mildly Bullish | 108.80 - 110.50 | 108.00 |
- As above, we are looking at a constructive week for risk assets which could briefly drive USD/JPY through 110. This is all premised on no escalation in Middle East tension and benign/positive US data, which could briefly see the US 2-10 year Treasury curve steepen back to the highs of the year. Even though dollar hedging costs have fallen for Japanese investors (now 2% per annum versus 3% this last time last year), they are still expensive in a world of low bond yields.
- Japanese data this coming week sees the November Balance of Payment data and core machinery orders. Neither of these is likely to excite the JPY. Instead, the local focus will be on whether the Nikkei 225 can push to a new cycle high above the 25,000 mark, representing the highest levels since the early 1990s.
GBP: BoE back in business
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
GBP/USD 1.3068 |
Mildly Bearish | 1.2970 - 1.3170 | 1.3000 |
- Comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney and Silvana Tenreyro suggest that the central bank may have ended their Brexit moratorium and be edging towards a rate cut. If so, this would probably take place at the 7 May meeting.The UK jobs data will probably have the biggest say as to whether the BoE cuts rates. We do not get any jobs data this week, but instead, receive updates on inflation (Tuesday) and retail sales (Friday.) The former should not be a big market mover, but indications of poor Christmas sales points to downside risks to the December retail sales figure.
- The Brexit withdrawal agreement bill is making its way through parliament, but not playing a decisive role in GBP pricing right now. Instead, news that the BoE is turning a little more dovish, plus no signs of a serious US slow-down, suggests GBP/USD may be spending more time at the lower end of its 1.29-1.35 trading range.
AUD: Bushfires limiting the upside
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AUD/USD 0.6890 |
Mildly Bullish | 0.6850 - 0.6970 | 0.6800 |
- A strong retail sales read overnight helped the Aussie dollar gain some momentum, although AUD/USD remains well below the year-end highs (0.70). With the US-Iran story increasingly out of the picture, focus will be on the Sino-American deal signing (15 January) and the Chinese GDP. If, as we expect, Chinese growth exceeds expectations, the AUD (the quintessential China proxy-currency in G10) will likely find further support in the next week.
- The bushfires emergency, however, is not ending anytime soon. Reports suggest that multiple fires will merge over the weekend at the border of New South Wales and Victoria. With such environmental crisis in place and uncertainty around the impact on the Australian economy, we think many investors may remain reluctant to enter long-AUD positions. This should translate in limited upside potential for AUD compared to its risk-sensitive peers if global risk sentiment keeps improving.
NZD: Some help from China
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
NZD/USD 0.6622 |
Bullish | 0.6590 - 0.6725 | 0.6600 |
- Just like in the past few days, the Kiwi dollar will lack a domestic story next week to move independently from the risk-sensitive bloc. The signing of the trade deal along with some possible data surprises in China should both benefit the currency. In particular, we expect NZD to keep outperforming AUD and AUD/NZD to face further downside risk.
- A very positive end of the year has lifted the NZD above our short-term expectations, and we have recently revised our 4Q20 forecast to 0.69. We continue to see the Kiwi dollar amongst the most attractive currencies in 2020 thanks to a supportive rate environment and medium-term undervaluation, although a more balanced speculative positioning may suggest a somewhat more limited upside room in the short-term.
CAD: Recovering, but heavily dependent on oil
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
USD/CAD 1.3049 |
Mildly Bearish | 1.2930 - 1.3100 | 1.3000 |
- Jobs recovered in December after the dreadful November reading, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.6% and full-time hiring displaying a solid rebound. Ultimately, this should ease worries about an imminent downturn in the Canadian labour market and keep the pressure off the loonie for now.
- A positive week for risk appetite should help USD/CAD fall below 1.30, although much will depend on the developments in the oil prices, that have curbed most CAD gains as geopolitical risk ebbed. In terms of data releases, the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will be watched amid an otherwise empty calendar.
CHF: Facing less downside risk than the yen
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
EUR/CHF 1.0819 |
Mildly Bullish | 1.0800 - 1.0850 | 1.0900 |
- The Swiss franc has been more immune to the rollercoaster in middle-east tensions compared to its safe-haven peer JPY. In line with such dynamics, if risk aversion keeps slipping next week, we see EUR/CHF upside to be broadly limited. The pair may, however, face some volatility around the release of the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes, especially if details around a possible review of the inflation target is mentioned.
- If global risk aversion rise again and CHF finds renewed support, the question will be wheather 1.08 will represent the line in the sand for the SNB to intervene and devaluate the currency. Such risk should have the potential to put a floor below the pair.
NOK: Counting on oil price recovery
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
EUR/NOK 9.8740 |
Mildly Bearish | 9.9300 - 9.7800 | 9.8000 |
- A weak inflation read left only minor marks on NOK as markets conviction around a flat rate path by the Norges Bank proved hard to dent. Next week offers little reasons to think of any independent NOK move.
- Like CAD, the rebound in risk appetite will be able to show its benefits to the currency insofar as oil prices find some support. EUR/NOK is trading very close to the key 9.8884 200D MA but we expect the pair will have room to stir away from such level and move back towards the bottom of the 9.80/9.90 range.
SEK: Stable inflation & nothing to faze the Riksbank
|
Spot |
Week ahead bias | Range next week | 1 month target |
|---|---|---|---|
|
EUR/SEK 10.5600 |
Mildly Bearish | 10.4500 - 10.6000 | 10.6000 |
- We’ve had a bit of a surprise with the December minutes last week, coming out slightly more dovish than expected, as the Riksbank seemed still far from ruling out bringing back negative rates in the future.
- Turning to next week’s calendar, CPIF is expected to have remained around 1.7% YoY in December – a view shared with the Riksbank, which won’t change their ‘wait and see’ approach. Though we might see some risk on the upside due to stronger oil, our economics team sees little scope for a surprise. In turn, next week will mostly be about global risk dynamics for SEK and in line with our expectations for a further drop in risk aversion, EUR/SEK should face some downward risk.
