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Economic and Financial Analysis
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Has Copper Bottomed Out?
The price of copper is down around 8% so far this year, and worries about China are to blame.
The Future For US Rates: A Final Hike?
Following the most aggressive tightening cycle seen in over 40 years, we expect the US central bank to signal a pause moving forward.
A Tough Call For The Fed Amid Banking Turmoil
As US inflation continues to run hot and banking crisis fears loom over financial markets, the outcome of next week's FOMC meeting is a tough call to make.
The Future Of UK Rate Hikes
A recent drop seen in January's data could signal a potential pause ahead for the Bank of England. But one month does not make a trend.
No Deal On The Debt Ceiling Will Have Disastrous Consequences
Pressure is mounting - again - on the US Congress to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. A split Congress and politicians willing to go to any extreme to score political points pose an added layer of risk.
More Trouble Ahead For Commodity Markets In 2023
While demand concerns appear to have taken the driver's seat as we approach year-end, current challenges show no signs of abating and continue to cloud our outlook for 2023.
The Path To Boosting Renewables In The U.S. Power Sector
As part of its climate ambition, the Biden administration now aims to transition the US to 100% clean electricity generation by 2035, which will require a huge increase in renewable energy use.
US Midterms And The Challenges Ahead
New challenges and a far more limited set of options are now on the horizon for President Biden. A split Congress, less scope for fiscal support, and a looming debt ceiling showdown all signal more difficult times ahead.
The Bank Of England’s Shrinking Options Amid The Bond Market Meltdown
With concerns rising over the scale of tax cuts, on top of an energy price guarantee from the UK government, the Bank looks to be in a deeply unenviable position.
Curb Your Peak Dollar Enthusiasm
A look at why the dollar is more likely to retest its highs than correct much lower.
America’s Non-Recessionary Recession
U.S. inflation's falling, not least because of lower oil prices, demand is strong as is the labor market. So even though America's in a technical recession, it certainly doesn't feel like it.
Dodging A New Euro Crisis
With interest rates heading higher and political instability returning to Italy, it's easy to assume that the eurozone could be headed for another debt crisis.
Eurozone Labor Market Powers Ahead
As worker shortages persist throughout the eurozone, ING's Bert Colijn outlines our outlook for the labor market as the region inches towards recession.
Have Yields Peaked?
The outlook for bonds is nuanced, and the US and eurozone markets may follow slightly different paths over the coming weeks and months.
Can The Fed Still Pull Off A ‘Soft Landing’?
The Federal Reserve has increased rates by 75bp for the first time since 1994, and with inflation currently running at a 40-year high, it seems unlikely to stop there.
Why FX Markets Are Feeling The Squeeze
There are three main factors impacting global FX markets. The longer they remain in place, the longer the US dollar will stay high.
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