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It Smells Like A Peak In U.S. Market Rates
We are at a point now where the peak seen at 3.5% in the 10yr US Treasury yield a little over a week ago is seeming more and more like a turning point.
Italy: Mixed Signals From June Confidence Data
Consumer gloom and business resilience cannot be easily reconciled. A likely re-composition in consumption patterns and resilient industry could balance out.
FX Daily: Outlining The Paths For EUR/USD
Yesterday's PMIs triggered a "sell Europe" dynamic, and demonstrated how growth differentials are becoming an increasingly important driver for the FX market.
The Eurozone’s Consumer’s Still Not Putting Their Money Where Their Mouth Is
Eurozone consumption is still experiencing a temporary bump from catch-up spending on services although today’s PMI figures are already starting to cast doubt on that view.
French Business Leaders Increasingly Less Optimistic About The Future
The French business climate indicator and PMI indices fell in June due to a deterioration in the forward-looking components. Economic activity is expected to remain sluggish in the coming quarters.
Asia Week Ahead: Japan And Korea Data Plus Regional Manufacturing Readings
Data from Japan and Korea will be the highlight for next week.
FX Daily: Norges Bank May Join The 50bp Club Today
High energy prices and interest rates worldwide may push Norges Bank to accelerate the pace of tightening and hike by 50bp today, lifting the krone - which however remains vulnerable to the unstable risk environment.
BRICS: The New Name In Reserve Currencies
Raising some eyebrows today has been an address by President Putin outlining that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are developing a new basket-based reserve currency.
UK Inflation Set To Stay Above 9% Throughout 2022
UK inflation has edged a touch higher to 9.1%, helped by another chunky rise in food prices, along with another 2% increase in fuel costs.
Bank Pulse: Bank Bond Issuance Points To A Change In The Funding Split
Banks have been active this year in bond markets, concentrating mostly on funding-driven issuance.
Poland: Consumer Demand Holding Strong Despite High Inflation
Economic data for May points to solid growth in the second quarter, driven by consumer demand. The personal income tax rate cut from 1 July will boost net wages, supporting households’ spending in the second half of the year.
Rates Spark: Powell To Cement US Curve Dynamics
Fed chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, if it confirms recent themes in Fed communication, will likely push rates higher and flatten the yield curve.
Deconstructing The Australian Construction Industry
Shrinking as a proportion of total GDP and with little overlap with the broader economy, we dissect the construction industry and assess its future.
Polish Industrial Activity Weakens, Price Pressures Remain High
May data from the industry has confirmed a gradual slowdown in activity amid still elevated price pressures. Despite headwinds, annual growth in industrial activity in 2Q22 will be only slightly lower than in 1Q22.
Rates Spark: No News Is Bad News
Markets ignoring French election results suggests that their fear of monetary tightening supersedes other drivers. The ECB has managed to cap sovereign spreads for now but questions remain about its new instrument.
Can The Fed Still Pull Off A ‘Soft Landing’?
The Federal Reserve has increased rates by 75bp for the first time since 1994, and with inflation currently running at a 40-year high, it seems unlikely to stop there.
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