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New Zealand: Migration Poses Risk To Disinflation And Rate Cut Prospects
The spike in net immigration in NZ does not have obvious implications for prices but recent data suggests the inflationary effect via the housing channel is outweighing the disinflationary relief to labour supply.
Key Events In Developed Markets Next Week
Next week in the US, we will get the Fed's favoured measure of inflation the core PCE deflator, which we expect to rise by 0.4% month-on-month.
Key Events In EMEA For The Week Of Feb. 26
The focus of next week will be Poland's fourth quarter GDP flash estimate for 2023, which we expect to come in at 1.0% YoY.
FX Daily: High Beta Currencies Look Vulnerable In The Short-run
The Nvidia-led equity rally may now have to face the reality of higher rates, and we suspect high-beta currencies are at risk of corrections.
Global Car Market To Hit The Speed Bumps In 2024
We expect global car sales growth to moderate this year after a strong 2023, which was driven by pent-up demand. The three key regions, the US, China and Europe, are all expected to maintain a mild positive trend.
Rates Spark: Safer In Bunds Than Treasuries
The ECB simply seems to be on a steadier path towards target inflation than the Fed, suppressing uncertainty around the timing of eurozone rate cuts.
Turkey’s Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate Flat And Maintains Tight Stance
In line with last month's signal to end the tightening cycle, and consistent with the market consensus, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) kept its policy rate unchanged at 45% at the February rate-setting meeting.
Asia Week Ahead: India’s GDP And China PMI Readings Plus Regional Trade And Inflation Numbers
Next week features several economies across the region reporting inflation and trade numbers.
Eurozone PMI Shows Improving Economy As Services Inflation Weighs On ECB
The composite PMI increased from 47.9 to 48.9 in February, indicating that the Eurozone's economic slump is easing.
The Commodities Feed: US Crude Oil Inventories Exceed Expectations
US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week, marking the second straight week of larger builds.
FX Daily: FOMC Minutes Suggest Fed Is In No Rush
In a quiet week for the US events calendar, last night's release of the January FOMC meeting minutes served as a reminder that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates.
Rates Spark: The Nudge Higher In Market Yields To Continue
The minutes from the January FOMC indicate the Federal Reserve is in no mood to cut rates just yet.
Polish Construction Falls Sharply In Early 2024
Construction output fell 6.1% YoY in January, compared to our projection of +3.1% and consensus at +8.1%.
The Commodities Feed: US Natural Gas Jumps After Chesapeake Plans For Output Cuts
US natural gas prices jumped this morning as a major shale driller announced production cuts for the year.
FX Daily: Rand In Focus On Pre-Election Budget
Some unfamiliar strength in Chinese equity markets is providing a little strength to non-dollar currencies.
Asia Morning Bites For Wednesday, February 21
Japan and Korea show stronger export data thanks to chip-making equipment, semiconductors and cars. Australia's wage price index comes in a bit higher than expected in 4Q23 and Bank Indonesia will likely leave rates unchanged today.
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