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Benign UK Core Inflation Means Rate Hike Unlikely During 2019
Stripping away the hike in household energy costs, the core inflation picture still looks fairly benign and this is likely to keep the Bank of England on hold this year.
Eurozone Consumers (Slightly) More Optimistic In May
Consumer confidence picked up to a seven-month high in May, indicating that decent consumption growth is likely to continue in the second quarter.
Reserve Bank Of Australia’s Lowe Talks Up Rate Cuts
At a speech to the Queensland branch of the Economic Society of Australia, Governor Lowe said the RBA would discuss rate cuts at their next meeting.
Thailand’s Growth Slips To 4-Year Low In 1Q
A weak first quarter combined with intensified downside growth risk leads us to cut our 2019 growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.8%.
Austria: Political Scandal To Hit Sentiment
As the European elections loom, a scandal has shaken up Austria’s political landscape, leading to snap elections in autumn this year.
Russia: GDP Growth Slows In 1Q19, Challenging The Policy Framework
Russian GDP growth slowed from 2.7% year on year in 4Q18 to just 0.5% YoY in 1Q19, well below expectations.
No New Tariffs, For Now…
The US has delayed a decision to label automobile imports a national security threat, but the tariff threat remains on the table.
Singapore Exports Maintain Double-Digit Decline In 2Q
Data foreshadows a continued slowdown in manufacturing and GDP growth in the current quarter, making it increasingly difficult for the central bank to maintain its tighter policy stance.
Russia Keeps Accumulating Foreign Assets
April balance of payments confirms the corporate preference to convert export proceeds into international assets, making foreign inflows into local state bonds the only support factor for the ruble exchange rate.
Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Unchanged As Expected
After performing relatively well in the first four months of the year, the Indonesian rupiah has come under renewed pressure on concerns about a protracted trade war between the US and China.
Malaysia’s Economy Outperforms In 1Q
With growth firmly sitting within the central bank’s 4.3-4.8% forecast range for 2019 there will be no need for more rate cuts this year.
Dip In US Retail Sales Unlikely To Last
The decline in US retail sales during April was relatively modest given the strong growth seen in March. With wage growth grinding higher, the outlook for consumers looks fairly bright.
China: Expect Faster Activity Growth After April’s Weak Data
Investment, manufacturing and retail sales slowed in April. This could reflect that trade negotiations appeared to be progressing well in April, meaning the government could afford to slow down its stimulus measures.
US-China Trade War: What Happens Now?
China has retaliated against the US tariffs, but only mildly. We believe China could take a more aggressive stance towards the US if it wanted. Meanwhile, China is going to cut taxes to support the economy.
Turkey: Industrial Production Rises For Third Straight Month
Industrial production (seasonal and calendar adjusted, SA) grew 2.1% month-on-month in March, the third positive reading in a row. IP growth in 1Q19 was 1.7% quarter-on-quarter (the first positive quarterly performance since 4Q17) vs -4.7% in 4Q18.
Dutch GDP - Expands Yet Again!
The Netherlands economy expanded by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, in line with ING forecasts mainly driven by strong investment growth and stock building.
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