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Key Events In EMEA Next Week - Saturday, March 6
A rather quiet week ahead in the EMEA region but keep an eye on Hungary's CPI, as well as Czech Republic real wages, CPI and industry data.
Key Events In Developed Markets Next Week
The key focus of developed markets will be the ECB meeting next week where we expect rates to remain unchanged, and the same goes for the Bank of Canada.
US: Strong Jobs Momentum Will Only Build
A very strong jobs report for February is just the start.
Rates: Escape Velocity
Ben Bernanke coined the phrase "escape velocity" in 2010, essentially saying that there needed to be plenty of oomph to growth, so the gravitational forces of deflation were left behind.
Global Central Banks Outlook
The Fed's position of no rate hike until 2024 will be increasingly difficult to reconcile with the data, the ECB will likely look through rising inflation and the Bank of England is likely to slow the pace of purchases this year.
Commodity Supercycle Calls Grow
It has been an exceptional month for commodity markets, with growing inflation expectations increasing investor interest in the complex. Meanwhile, fundamental developments, particularly in the oil market have only provided a further boost.
Savings: The Two-Sided Wildcard For Growth
In the first lockdown, surging savings rates across the Western hemisphere were mainly the result of involuntary savings. As a result, the reopening of economies led to an almost full reversal of the excess savings into consumption.
Nickel: Breakthrough Technology May Be A Game-Changer
The nickel industry has always been on the cusp of change, and the latest news that Tsingshan will mass-produce nickel matte could be a game-changer. The risks of battery-grade nickel supply are much reduced.
FX: Dollar Bounce Underwhelms
If, at the start of the year, we had been told that US bonds would sell off 50bp at a time that Europe’s slow vaccine rollout had meant lockdown extensions, what reaction would we have expected of EUR/USD?
US: Does A “Patient” Fed Risk Becoming A “Complacent” Fed?
Jerome Powell's relaxed attitude to inflation signals no policy action anytime soon, but this could risk storing up trouble down the line.
Eurozone Exports To The Rescue
As the recovery of global demand plays a key role in export improvement, it should come as no surprise that China has been a stronghold for the eurozone's external demand.
Eurozone: The Underachiever
The sluggish pace of the vaccination campaign continues to jeopardise the eurozone recovery, though stronger manufacturing and construction activity are limiting the damage.
What Will OPEC+ Do?
Looking at the price action in oil yesterday, one wouldn’t think that we saw the largest US crude oil build on record, with stocks increasing by almost 21.6MMbbls over the last week.
Re-Assessing The Commodity-FX Relation
The rally in commodities has benefited G10 commodity FX more than EM FX so far, due in part to the UST sell-off.
UK Budget Offers Solid Support For Spring Recovery
The UK Chancellor has unveiled a large package of measures to help the economy through what is likely to be a delicate reopening process.
Aluminum: China’s March Towards ‘Net-Zero’ Flips Market Expectations
China’s ambition to achieve a ‘net zero’ carbon goal is fuelling expectations about dwindling supply growth over the medium- to long-term.
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