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U.S. Industry Data Adds To Growth Optimism
Full order books and rising energy prices mean robust growth momentum can continue and adds to optimism that second-quarter GDP will exceed 3%.
UK Unemployment Rate Surpasses Pre-Covid Lows As Shortages Persist
The UK jobs market is undeniably hot right now, but that could change. The Bank of England has forecast higher unemployment, although much obviously depends on whether we see a more severe economic downturn.
The Commodities Feed: Wheat Jumps After India Restricts Exports
ICE Brent started the week on a soft note as weaker economic data from China weighed on sentiment, with Covid-related lockdowns slowing economic activity and crude oil demand.
FX Daily: A Welcome Respite For FX Markets
FX markets are calming a little after a riotous month. When the dust settles, however, we are still left with a Fed on course to tighten rates above 3% into next year and the commodity shock from the war in Ukraine.
China’s Primary Aluminum Supply Quickly Improves As Pragmatism Wins
China's primary aluminium production has recovered from the lows seen in the second half of last year after being hit by a double whammy of dual-control measures and a power crunch.
Electric Vehicle Uptake Exceeds Expectations
The global share of electric cars in new deliveries surpassed expectations in 2021. Governments and corporates also made regulatory and strategic progress.
The Rapid Widening Of Turkey’s External Deficit Continues
With another higher than expected monthly turnout, the current account deficit showed a further widening in March, driven by higher energy bills. It stood at US$24.2bn on a 12-month rolling basis.
China’s Growth Rate Likely To Contract This Quarter Given Latest Activity Data
Each activity data point for April released today was worse than expected, and only fixed asset investments were still in positive growth. This confirms our GDP forecast of a contraction in the second quarter of this year.
FX Daily: Still Searching For The Light At The End Of The Tunnel
FX dynamics are set to remain strictly tied to developments in global equity markets, which are desperately seeking some stabilization after a rough period.
Key Events In Developed Markets For Week Of May 16
With UK inflation set to rise above 9% in next week's data, the Bank of England is becoming increasingly likely to pause the rate hike cycle later this year.
Key Events In EMEA For Week Of May 16
Preliminary GDP readings in Poland, Hungary, and Romania are the key figures to look out for next week.
Supply Chain Pressure To Persist Through 2022, Leading To Permanent Changes In Trade
Global supply chains remain under pressure.
China Loan Growth Misses Estimates
New yuan loans grew only CNY645.4bn in April after a CNY3130bn increase in March. The market consensus was CNY2200bn.
Strong Increase In Imports Pushes Up March Current Account Deficit In Poland
Poland's external indicators deteriorated in March due to the effects associated with the war in Ukraine.
The Commodities Feed: Demand Downgrades
The oil market was choppy yesterday. ICE Brent traded in almost a US$4/bbl range, although settled almost unchanged on the day. We had a number of data releases, including the IEA’s and OPEC’s monthly oil market reports.
China’s Covid Battle Intensifying Sell-Off Risks In Metals
The sell-off in base metals continues after Beijing ratcheted up Covid containment measures.
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