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Key Events In EMEA For The Week Of March 4
Next week sees a flurry of key data releases in Hungary, including a breakdown of 4th quarter GDP as well as fresh inflation and fiscal data towards the end of the week. Over in Turkey, we forecast annual inflation to come in at 65.5% in February.
Key Events In Developed Markets For The Week Of March 4
An important week in the US will see Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifying before Congress, as well as the release of February's jobs report following a blowout in January.
US Mixed Manufacturing Messages Clouds The Outlook Ahead Of Powell
High inflation, but softer activity data has been the theme this week and means that Fed Chair Powell is likely to give little away in terms of a timetable for rate cuts at his Congressional appearances next week.
U.S. Soft Landing Still Threatened By Turbulence
Belief in a soft landing for the US economy appears to be solidifying, but risks still remain for it being a bumpier ride than many expect.
Eurozone Inflation Dropped Less Than Expected In February
Inflation fell from 2.8 to 2.6% and core inflation fell from 3.3 to 3.1%.
Asia Week Ahead: China’s Two Sessions Meeting And Australian GDP Numbers Out Next Week
The coming week features China's Two Sessions meeting while also featuring GDP from Australia and South Korea.
Italian Inflation Stable In February
The rebound after December’s trough is proving slow, helped by low raw energy prices. A gradual increase should unfold over the rest of the year as demand conditions will improve in the economy.
The Commodities Feed: Cocoa Supplies Tighten Further
The cocoa market remains tight with the ICCO estimating a wider deficit for 2023/24 due to lower production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Lower production could push inventories further down and create shortages.
FX Daily: A Higher Bar For A Lower Dollar?
March may not give us conclusive answers on US inflation, the economy, or when the Fed will cut, but it will tell us whether markets now require sharper US data declines to re-enter easing bets.
Indonesia: Inflation Edges Up But Stays Within Target
Indonesia’s inflation saw a slight uptick but remained within target. The central bank is likely to extend its pause.
Asia Morning Bites For Friday, March 1
Friday's data calendar features PMI reports from China and the region. Indonesia also reports its latest inflation number.
Rates Spark: Not Enough To Justify Any Material Fall In Market Rates
Lots and lots of liquidity still washing around, risk being bought on an ongoing basis and a pop in January inflation are all combining to a combination that should not gel with a collapse in market rates.
Poland Remains Set For A 2024 Recovery Despite Weaker Consumption
The flash estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter came in at 1.0% year-on-year, following an increase of 0.5% YoY in the previous quarter.
Bank Of Canada In Holding Pattern Ahead Of Summer Easing
There is a risk that the BoC turns a notch more dovish at the March meeting, given the lower-than-expected inflation figures.
US Inflation Is Too Hot But Softening Fundamentals Point To An Eventual Cooling
The Fed's favoured measure of inflation come in at 0.4% MoM, which is double the 0.2% rate we want to see, but cooling incomes and spending suggest inflation will moderate again in coming months, leaving the door open to a June FED rate cut.
The Commodities Feed: Large US Oil Stocks Build
Oil prices are little changed this morning as a bearish EIA inventory report weighed on the OPEC+ supply cut expectations.
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