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Russian Industry: Hoping For A Better 2020
Russian industrial production accelerated from 0.3% year on year in November to 2.1% YoY in December, somewhat below our 2.7% YoY expectations.
Poland: Retail Sales No Big Surprise
Retail sales at constant prices accelerated in December from 5.2% to 5.7% YoY.
Demand Vs. Supply Risks
Oil markets got a hammering yesterday, with ICE Brent settling more than 2% lower on the day, and early morning trading today has seen a continuation of this trend.
Philippines: GDP Growth At 6.4%, Sluggish Momentum Points To BSP Easing
The Philippines recorded GDP growth of 6.4% in 4Q, bringing full-year growth to 5.9%.
Poland: Disappointing Industrial Production
While the growth structure excludes spillover from Eurozone economies, weaker construction and industrial activity means 4Q GDP growth should be below 3.5%.
US-China Deal Won’t Pull World Trade Out Of The Doldrums
The agreement between the US and China won’t deliver enough stimulus for world trade to show a decent recovery in 2020.
Norges Bank To Keep Its Powder Dry This Week
We expect Norway's central bank to keep its powder dry this week but we still think it is too early to rule out some further tightening in 2020.
Central Banks Move One Step Closer To Issuing Digital Currencies
Six central banks and the Bank for International Settlements have formed a working group to discuss “potential cases” for central bank digital currencies.
Wuhan Worries
Energy markets came under pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling almost 1% lower on the day. This downward trend has continued in early morning trading in Asia.
Malaysia’s Central Bank Surprises With 25 Basis Point Rate Cut
Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) Overnight Policy Rate 25 basis points rate cut on January 21, is yet another insurance move to support growth, while inflation remains benign. We expect no more cuts this year.
Softening Stance On French Tax Reduces Risk Of Another Trade War
Presidents Macron and Trump have reached a truce on the French digital services tax. This shows that the EU, and France in particular, are more flexible than expected.
Market Shrugs Off Libya Disruptions
Despite supply disruptions from Libya, which have the potential to swing the market into deficit, the oil market settled just over 0.5% higher yesterday, giving back most of the gains made in the early morning trading session.
ECB And EUR Crib Sheet
The euro should largely look through this week's European Central Bank meeting, with EUR/USD risks remaining skewed to the downside. The attractive funding characteristics of the euro should be kept in place by the ECB for a while yet.
Downside Risk For CAD Ahead Of BoC Meeting
The Bank of Canada will announce monetary policy tomorrow and markets are widely expecting no changes in the policy rate.
Russia Tempted To Ease Fiscal Rule And Spend More
According to preliminary government estimates, the Russian federal budget surplus reached 1.8% of GDP in 2019 or RUB2.0 tr.
FX Positioning Update: Overstretched GBP Longs
The slump in sterling speculative shorts continued in the week 8-14 January, according to CFTC data.
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