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FOMC FX And Rates Preview: A High Bar For Hawkish Surprises
Markets have scaled back their dovish expectations of late, allowing some room for a dovish surprise.
US Manufacturing Rebound Isn’t Sustainable
US manufacturing output bounced more than expected in August, but the combination of weaker global growth, a strong dollar, and lingering trade tensions are huge headwinds that will result in weaker activity through the rest of the year.
Russian Industry: August Improvement Masked By Calendar Effect
Russian industrial output accelerated to 2.9% YoY in August, despite the adverse calendar effects, suggesting that the acceleration of the budget spending is already taking effect.
What Events In Saudi Arabia Mean For Markets
Having been fixated by slowing demand this summer, financial markets now have to deal with the supply side – what does the attack on Saudi facilities mean for the global economy?
Brazil: Monetary Easing On Track
Low inflation, subdued activity and continued fiscal consolidation progress bode well for another 50bp policy rate cut this week.
Turkish Unemployment Inches Lower To 13.9%
Turkey's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been increasing since early 2018 but dipped marginally in June to 13.9% despite the slightly higher labor force participation.
Oil Soars On Saudi Aramco Attack
ICE Brent is up around 10% this morning after weekend drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, which resulted in capacity closure in the country.
USD: Markets Scale Down Fed Cut Expectations
US economic data has led to a sizable repricing in the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts.
US Fed Policy: Insurance Against Failure
“Mid-cycle easing” will remain the theme as the Federal Reserve delivers another 25bp interest rate cut on Wednesday. It will be justified as insurance to mitigate the trade and global headwinds facing the economy.
2019: Trade Shrinks For The First Time Since Lehman
The outlook for world trade is moving from bad to worse.
Turkey: A Good Start To 3Q
Turkish industrial production data shows a good start to 3Q, after turning positive in 1Q and recording growth in 2Q. Encouraging signals in August hint continuation of the recovery momentum.
US: Stagflation Nation?
Inflation pressures are building just at the time the economy is showing signs of slowing. It is the latter that will drive Fed policy with another 25bp rate cut expected next week.
Turkey: Further Frontloading By The Central Bank
The Central Bank of Turkey remains confident about the strength of the ongoing disinflation trend and has again frontloaded the easing cycle with another large 325 basis point cut.
Last Eurozone Data Confirming The Slowdown Before ECB Meets
Industrial production declined more than expected in July, already confirming continued industrial weakness in 3Q.
EUR: Will Draghi Deliver?
We expect a significant easing package from the European Central Bank today. But if Draghi doesn't deliver, the EUR/USD could move to the 1.1250 level.
Poland Keeps Rates Unchanged And Maintains Neutral Bias
The central bank has decided to keep rates flat and maintained its neutral bias while downplaying the inflationary risk from the minimum wage hike.
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