David Trainer Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
CEO of New Constructs, LLC.

New Constructs leverages reliable fundamental data to provide unconflicted insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private and public businesses. Combining human expertise with cutting-edge machine learning (ML) technologies (more

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2Q22 Earnings: Where Street Estimates Are Too Low & Who Should Beat
While Street Earnings overstate profits for the majority of S&P 500 companies, there are many S&P 500 companies whose Street Earnings understate their true Core Earnings.
D.R. Horton Is Loaded With Upside
Our latest long idea, D.R. Horton is worth a closer look. Our analysis predicts DHI could reach each $181 or higher.
ROIC Improved In Each Of The All Cap Index Sectors Through 3Q21
The Technology sector performed best over the past year, as measured by change in ROIC.
Overstated Operating Earnings Increase Downside Risk For The S&P 500
The Operating Earnings from S&P Global for the S&P 500 overstate Core Earnings[1],[2] through 3Q21, which continue a trend from last quarter.
Sysco: Industry Leading Scale Drives Continued Profit Growth
Sysco’s TTM net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) margin grew from 1% in fiscal 3Q21 to 3% in fiscal 1Q22, while its invested capital turns improved from 2.8 to 3.6 over the same time.
This Meme-Stock Is Still Not Worth Buying At Any Price
AMC Entertainment is currently priced as if it will improve profitability above historical averages and generate revenue equal to 35% of the projected global box office in 2030 (up from 13% in 2019).
Sweetgreen: Healthy Product But Unhealthy IPO
Sweetgreen (SG) is expected to go public on November 18, 2021 with a midpoint valuation of $24/share, which would earn the stock our Unattractive rating.
The Incumbent Advantage Creates A Large Moat
Microsoft’s cloud sales (46% of total revenue) rose 36% YoY in fiscal 1Q22 and drove the company’s overall revenue 22% higher YoY.
After 3Q21 EPS, This Events Stock Remains Overvalued By 86%+
After missing both top and bottom line estimates, this business has still not recovered from the COVID-19 pressures and looks increasingly unlikely to achieve the high revenue and profit growth implied by its stock price.
Even At A Lowered Valuation, Don’t Buy Rivian’s IPO
Rivian, an electric truck, and delivery van manufacturer is set to IPO next week with an expected valuation of ~$52 billion, the midpoint of its IPO price range.
Unrivaled Store Footprint Drives Upside Potential
Dollar General is positioned well to grow its top and bottom lines over the long term, but the stock is priced as if profits will fall below pre-pandemic levels.
GitLab: Another Overpriced Tech Company
GitLab Inc. (GTLB), a software development platform, is set to IPO soon with a price range of $55-60/share. At the midpoint of that range, the firm would have a valuation of $8.2 billion and earn our Unattractive rating.
Better Holdings Than The Benchmark
Backward-looking investors focused on short-term performance may overlook this fund because its one-year performance lags its benchmark. But it's worth a much closer look...
Write-Downs Near 15-Year Lows Post 2020 “Kitchen Sink”
In what turned out to be a “kitchen sink” year, corporate managers used COVID-19 as a justification to write-down more assets in 2020 than any year since 2008.
Authentic Brands: Reasonable Valuation Offers Upside
Unlike many recent IPOs, Authentic Brands is profitable, in large part due to operational efficiency and successful acquisition and licensing of well-known brands.
Allbirds Is Already Overvalued At Expected IPO Valuation
Allbirds (BIRD) is expected to go public in the coming weeks with an expected valuation of roughly $2 billion, which would earn the stock our Unattractive rating.
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