CEO of New Constructs, LLC.

New Constructs leverages reliable fundamental data to provide unconflicted insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private and public businesses. Combining human expertise with cutting-edge machine learning (ML) technologies (more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

EC Marqeta’s IPO Is Priced Beyond Perfection
Marqeta’s expected valuation of $12 billion implies that the company’s total processing volume will be 114% of PayPal’s, a highly unlikely outcome..
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Squarespace Valuation Is Out Of This World
Squarespace (SQSP) is expected to go public via direct listing on May 19, 2021.
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Netflix, A Meme-Stock Original
It’s clear that Netflix cannot generate anywhere close to the profits implied by the current stock price. Netflix is back in the Danger Zone.
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More Long Ideas That Look Good Post Earnings
For years, bears believed Target’s brick-and-mortar presence would hinder its ability to gain market share. However, Target leverages its physical stores as the centerpiece of its omni-channel distribution strategy, and it is working.
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The Real Earnings Season Starts Now: Time To Read Filings & Footnotes
Quarterly earnings season may be winding down, but the real earnings season – annual 10-K filing season – is ramping up.
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Regulation Will Evict This Firm’s Micro-Bubble Expectations
Given the spike in disregard for fundamental risk exemplified by the GameStop frenzy, we continue our micro-bubble winners and losers theme to help investors assess fundamental risks.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough
3 years ago

Thanks Harry Goldstein.

Understanding how far off they are from profitability today helps investors see the real risk in the stock.

In this article: NFLX
Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough
3 years ago

Good points - and the back and forth here illustrated the challenges Netflix has to making money. Not sure how they will ever make the kind of money they need to make to support original content creation.

Understanding how far off they are from profitability today helps investors see the real risk in the stock.

In this article: NFLX
Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough
3 years ago

They lost $2.8 billion in 2016.

Over the trailing twelve months - free cash flow is -$3.1 billion.

Wall Street loves the stock and the firm's strategy b/c it will generate lots of underwriting fees for all the debt and stock NFLX can sell to the suckers willing to fund a business model that has not made money 2010 when free cash flow was $29 million.

Since 2002, free cash flows is -$9.4 billion, cumulatively.

In this article: NFLX
Why We Downgraded Disney
6 years ago

Mr. Kaplan,

We think Disney is a great company — a truly great one — that has tremendous brand assets and has delivered great value for shareholders for many years. We simply believe that all of these brand assets and future "home run" movies, including Frozen 2, are priced into the stock at its current level.

Thanks for reading and commenting.

In this video: DIS
Top Stock Picks: 2014 In Review
6 years ago

You can learn more by signing up for our free membership at www.newconstructs.com.

In this article: AMGN, ED, ALL, CB, MDT, INTC
Danger Zone: Glu Mobile (GLUU)
6 years ago
Joel: Thanks for your comment. Would you mind sharing what you think GLUU's strengths are and how they do/don't position the company to meet or exceed the expectations for future cash flows embedded in the stock price?
In this article: GLUU, DWA, NFLX, ZNGA
Why Footnotes Matter
6 years ago
Sebright: Good point. The catch is that few investors have the time or expertise to read an annual report. Did you know that 2013 annual reports averaged over 200+ pages?
In this article: AA, ABC, CTL, DVN, ED, HAS, HES, MUR, MWV, RF, SYK, VZ, ZION
1 to 8 of 8 comments

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