With stock prices at near-record highs relative to measures like earnings or cash flow, many leading analysts have predicted meager returns over the next decade.

At today’s level of stock prices, our analysis implies the need to be cautious, to focus on value stocks whose price exceeds our DCF valuations, and to continue to hedge.

During the first nine months of this year, the market story has been primarily one of discount rates.

The market performance in the first half of 2023 was a surprise, to say the least.

Even if the impact of AI is great, greater than that of the internet, U.S. productivity growth may accelerate to something like 0.50%, However, the growth will remain bumpy as it always has been.

Periodically, stock market concentration has attracted the attention of investors. Now should be one of those times.

There are two themes that we have stressed in our quarterly memos: interest rates have been extraordinarily low and the second is that stock prices have been high relative to fundamentals such as earnings and cash flow.

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, a lot of things have changed. With many new retail traders and interest in the stock market has investing changed?

Many investors want big returns, something that most stocks can't offer. But some can...

Given the intense interest in the relation between stock prices, interest rates, and inflation, it is worthwhile to review basic concepts that tie them together. 

With all the talk about Bitcoin, it is time to delve into the data.

Based on the dot.com experience, popping bubbles are often associated with the complete collapse of companies like, but that is as much the exception as the rule. 

Tesla Inc’s stock has become so divorced from the underlying economics that it now exists in a kind of valuation twilight zone.

The bottom line is that there are a lot of reasons for investing in socially responsible green companies. Unfortunately, the prospect of higher future monetary returns is not one of them.

COVID has killed short-termism once and for all. The behavior of the stock market during a year of COVID-induced earnings declines is the final death knell for the hypothesis that the market is infected with short-termism.

Most stock valuation focuses on companies with growth opportunities like Zoom, Wayfair, and Peloton, or companies whose stocks have outperformed like Apple. Here we take a look at the other side of the coin and present a valuation of Exxon.