Tuesday Talk: Vaccine Victory Lap

Monday the US stock market moved into further robust mode fueled by official FDA approval of the Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) COVID-19 vaccines. Will the momentum last through to Thursday when the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off remains to be seen.

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The S&P 500 was up 38 points to close at 4,480, the Dow was up 216 points, closing at 35,336 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 228 points to close at 14, 943. Futures for all three indices are currently trading in the green. S&P futures are up 7 points, Dow futures are up 32 points and Nasdaq futures are up 50 points.

In an exclusive for TalkMarkets Joe Samuel asks Now That The FDA Approved Pfizer-BioNTech, Is This It For Vaccine Stocks?

"The expectation toward the end of the week last week was that the duo's COVID-19 vaccine would become the first to obtain real FDA approval. Sure enough, during the early morning hours of the market being open, the news was released that, in fact, the FDA approved their vaccine for use in those 16 and over...But does this mean all other companies developing a vaccine candidate should hang up their shoes and find something else to do? Absolutely not."

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"The current COVID landscape also has different variations of "vaccine stocks". Some companies are developing treatments for prevention like Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna (MRNA), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Astra Zeneca (AZN), etc. While others are pushing for drug candidates used by already hospitalized patients. Then you've got a slew of biotechs focusing on the byproducts of the virus. 

I'm talking specifically about companies that are looking to either develop a new/better vaccine and or treatments for long-haul COVID symptoms. For instance, earlier this summer, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) announced plans to develop TNX-102 SL for Long COVID syndrome in particular...

Enlivex Therapeutics (ENLV) is another one of the companies looking into side-effects of COVID. In particular, this month the company was authorized by the Israeli Ministry of Health to begin a Phase 2b trial evaluating its Allocetra treatment in severe and critical COVID patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

You've also got other companies still working on a standard vaccine that not only addresses "OG coronavirus" but also all of the new variants coming out. These include the likes of Novavax (NVAX), Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE), and Ocugen (OCGN), all of which continue making new headlines almost weekly at this point... All three of these stocks were considered penny stocks in early 2020, which shows just how big of an impact that coronavirus vaccine development has had on certain companies.

Still time to get on the train according to Samuels. See the full article for a more detailed look.

Contributor Rod Raynovitch notes that Healthcare Stocks Hit New Highs But Small Caps Lag.

"Pfizer was up almost 3% on full FDA approval of their vaccine in partnership with BioNTech up 9.2% even though FDA approval was expected. Today vaccine stocks are rallying again on funding for booster shots and a longer-term outlook for vaccine mandates. But expect some pushback and revisions on the booster plan. Moreover, full FDA approval may encourage more vaccinations. On Friday BNTX was up 5.08%, MRNA up 1.98 %, NVAX up 6.17%. In the coming months we’ll see if the vaccine manufacturers reformulate to better protect against the delta and other variants, Coronavirus testing stocks lagged today despite the expectation that more venues and companies will require vaccination and COVID tests: ABT flat at $126, QDEL flat at $119.

As you can see from the IWM and the more speculative biotech ETFs most of the rally YTD has been in the higher quality biopharma dividend names plus United Health (UNH). Today all of our new small-cap focus stocks are up for the second day: CRSPCYRX, and VCYT.

Many smaller cap biotech stocks trade on news and milestones and have no earnings so require more expertise in the field."

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Tyler Bundy takes a look at What's Next For Pfizer Stock After FDA Approval Of COVID-19 Vaccine? Here are his key takeaways:

  • After receiving FDA approval, the company’s stock pushed higher and is flying. The stock may cool off after FDA approval hype slows down.
  • The stock trades above both the 50-day moving average (green), and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating recent sentiment in the stock has been bullish.
  • Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support.
  • The $43 price level was a previous area of resistance where the stock struggled to cross above. Recently, the stock was able to cross this level and fly higher.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been sitting in the overbought area for a time and now sits at 71. An overbought RSI shows there is much more buying pressure than selling pressure in the stock.

 

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TalkMarkets contributors from the  Staff at Schaeffer's Research also attributed yesterday's rise in the markets to FDA approval for the Pfizer vaccine as noted in their article Dow Logs Triple-Digit Surge After FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine.

"Indexes kicked off the week with a win, boosted mostly by reopening stocks and news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved the first Covid-19 vaccine.

The Dow Jones Average (DJI)  added 215.6 points or 0.6% for the day. Boeing (BA) paced the long list of Dow winners today, rising 3.2%, while UnitedHealth (UNH) fell 1%, bottoming out the list.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 37.9 points or 0.9% for the day. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 228 points, or 1.6%, for the day.

Lastly, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell 1.4 points or 7.6%, for the day."

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A few weeks back I quoted a TM contributor who remarked that it might be interesting to pick up General Motors (GM) on the way down. Nick Santiago in his article General Motors Drives South Again, Here’s The Trade discusses just what that might mean.

Leading automaker, General Motors Co (GM), has been steadily falling since early June. The stock topped out at $64.30 a share on June 7th 2021. Since that high pivot, the shares have declined by 25% and currently trade around $48.00 a share...The next major support area for General Motors Co (GM) stock will be around the $44.00 area. This support level is where the stock broke out in January 2021. Often, when stocks back-test their prior breakout level they will be defended by the institutional crowd. This is also a major retrace level that should add even more strength to the support level when tested. I will look to be a buyer of General Motors Co shares around this $44.00 area."

TalkMarkets contributor Michael Kramer who closely follows several major stocks notes that Stocks Rise On August 23 As Fears Of Fed Taper Ease, But Should They?

Here is some of what he has to say. Read the full article for charts and details.

"The SPY ETF (SPY) managed to move back to the trendline it broke last week and stopped there. This could merely be a retest of that trendline. We should find out pretty early tomorrow if that is the case. If we gap over the trend line, it is probably a good sign we will have to wait longer for the corrective wave. The Nasdaq (QQQ) did the same thing. So again, there remains a solid chance for both of these to enter a corrective wave lower in this region...there were pockets of stocks in the US Markets that were oversold. Amazon (AMZN) is one of them, and the stock bounced back, rising by nearly 2%. The stock also failed right at the 200-day moving average. We will find out tomorrow how much conviction the bulls have here.

(PMI data shows) the economy continues to slow back to its longer-term trend, which is probably in the 2-2.5% range of GDP growth. I don’t think any data is bad enough to give the Fed a reason not to tape asset purchases. The delta variant does cause risk, but the Fed is likely going to taper by what $10 billion starting in November? At some point along the way, the Fed could stop the taper if things get bad. So I don’t see the risk of the variant posing a threat to this potential move."

Stephen Innes closes out today's roundup summing up current market sentiment in a TalkMarkets exclusive entitled Risk-Off Takes A Pause.

"The risk-off trade from last week is taking a breather as The S&P remains resilient and again fresh highs, but actually, it's the first +100bp day in a month since July 23.

The most significant development on the pandemic front was China reporting zero Delta community cases and official FDA approval of PFE/BioNTech's COVID vaccine, paving the way for more companies to institute vaccine mandates. 

On the back of these headlines, Oil prices surged, the US dollar weakened as Macro Reopening baskets clearly outperformed the Stay-at-Home Covid risk-off oriented baskets. 

Price action Monday also seems to suggest the market fears around Jackson Hole and Fed policy, in general, are easing, with both equities and fixed income higher and the US dollar slinks lower.

There is a good chance Chair Powell could use the Jackson Hole opportunity to emphasize the difference between taper and rate hikes."

Time to head to Jackson Hole for some virtual fishing.

man fishing on stream at daytime

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Have a good week.

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