Amidst the raging pandemic and President Trump’s so far, steadfast reluctance to concede the election to Joe Biden, the stock market continues to fly high, seemingly reaching the altitudes of migrating Canada geese in the November sky.

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US Markets closed higher with all three major indices flirting with new highs. The Dow closed at 29,950, the S&P 500 closed at 3,627 and the Nasdaq closed at 11,924. Currently the Dow and S&P futures are trading slightly in the red, while Nasdaq futures are green, flashing above 12,000. We’ll have to see what the trading day brings.                                              

Chart: The New York Times

The Staff at Bespoke Investment Group shows us just what some stocks have been up to this November (mid-month) so far. Writing in A Month For The Ages the team notes that within the Russell 3000 index there are 51 stocks which are up over 50% month to date. The top 20 are in the chart that follows:

“Topping the list is Five Prime Therapeutics (FPRX), which has rallied more than 349% this month! That’s years worth of returns in sixteen days. Behind FPRX, there are two other stocks – Cooper Standard (CPS) and Revlon (REV) – which have both more than doubled. Many of the names listed are unknown small caps, but a handful of names like Transocean (RIG), Coty (COTY), and Lyft (LYFT) are very well known.”

Higher in the sky than many geese, for sure.

Talk Markets contributor Rich Dvorak in his column Dow Jones Forecast: Stock Market Hits New High On Moderna Vaccine comments on the new highs the market is experiencing but is also cautious given the amount of serious news in the background.

“Coronavirus vaccine news gives hope and investors reason to stay forward-looking, but the near-term threat from more lockdowns and corresponding reduction in economic activity looms large. Monthly US retail sales data is scheduled for release Tuesday, November 17, at 13:30 GMT, which could spark a bearish market reaction if the figures disappoint consensus estimates.”

Rick’s 2 hour chart of the end of Monday trading on the Dow is shown below:

Michael Kramer in Stocks Jump On Nov. 16, But May Be Running Out Of Juice is enjoying the ride but is uncertain as to how long we will be on the up end of the rollercoaster. In addition to commentary on the S&P, Kramer also gives comments regarding some of his stock picks which he follows closely (MU, XOM, ACAD, NFLX, TSLA).

“Miracle Monday lived up to its name, with stock jumping following news early in the morning that Moderna’s (MRNA) vaccine for COVID was just as effective as Pfizer’s (PFE)… one has to wonder what “catalysts” are left to send stocks up from here. There is no vaccine news left; it appears Biden has won the Presidency –pending lawsuits. The Fed seems to be maintaining the status quo… Is the market going to be forced to return to valuation and actual fundamentals to determine direction? Could be.”

Here is Kramer on the S&P 500:

“The S&P 500 managed to finish where it could not last week, at 3,626, which for now is resistance. It seems possible that we could get ready for that next big leg up, but I question if we have the juice for it left.”

While U.S. markets may seem to have the “V-shape” vibe, the same cannot be said for large economies in other parts of the world. Jim Wiederhold takes a look at how the recovery is going on the sub-continent in India’s Contribution To The Global Economic Recovery and finds more of a mixed bag and a “K-shaped’’ curve.

“Discussions regarding a K-shaped recovery from COVID-19 highlight disparities across different commodity sectors. India seems to be experiencing its own version of this, with some areas improving faster and stronger than others. Decreased importation costs have served as a tailwind to help India. Energy accounts for about one-third of India’s total imports, and as crude oil prices collapsed around the world from the simultaneous demand and supply shock, India found that the cost of doing business dropped significantly. Most commodity prices dipped in the first half of the year, following moves in other asset classes.”

Wiederhold notes that imports of crude oil and gold have fallen in India due to lower demand for the one and higher prices for the other. Included in the article are infographics detailing India’s top ten imports and exports. While India struggles with the impact of COVID-19 on many fronts, an uptick in exports provide some room for guarded optimism.

“From an export perspective, there may be some signs of improvement, especially for agricultural commodities. Global demand for rice and sugar is expected to grow, and both are commodities that have seen increased production in India in recent years. Bumper wheat crops over recent years also put India in a strong position to take advantage of surging global wheat (WEAT) prices.”

India is currently the second largest wheat producer in the world and forecasts for bumper crops in both the 2019-21 and 2020-21 seasons are one bright spot for the country’s COVID-19 rebound.

Closing out today’s column on a more sobering note, Norman Mogil in a TalkMarkets exclusive titled, The Legacy Of The Pandemic Will Be Lower Potential Growth notes the following:

“Every major economic downturn leaves some scars, and this downturn signals lasting damage to our economic wellbeing. The consensus is building that our growth potential will be lower than that experienced pre-COVID-19; we cannot expect a return to customary growth paths.”

Using Canada’s economy as an example, Mogil includes this chart from the Bank of Canada which measures pre-COVID and post-COVID growth expectations for the Canadian economy forecasting a drop in total output of 3% at the end of 2022 due to the pandemic.

With a nod to both the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and the markets I leave you with this quote from the Old Farmer’s Almanac:

“Flurries early, pristine and pearly. Winter’s come calling. Can we endure so premature a falling? Some may find this trend distressing - others bend to say a blessing over sage and onion dressing.”

Wikipedia