Skepticism about the 'new Bull Market' declaration (technically so) is very amusing to us; having identified a clear 'inverse head & shoulders bottom' painfully constructed painfully in last year's final months and an equally slow and alternating - as well as bifurcated - process this year so far.

It continues ... for kicks I'll share both this weekend's current Daily S&P and a reflection of 'The Inger Bottom' proclaimed back in 2020 literally at the lows. I think it's sort of fitting; since the institutions belatedly chased the upside then and that's sort of what they're doing with the mega-cap techs now.

(Again please note the lower chart above is from 2020; the top one's current.)

Tonight; resting a bit ahead of a complicated week ahead (alternating seems likely for S&P), I will express some remarks embedded in a few charts.

Ideally we're entering a higher trading range for S&P allowing small-caps sort of catching up over time. In the short-term, a reversion trade is due. Everyone is waiting for more shoes to drop; whether in Banks or REITs maybe; but for now we don't have that. The markets are in a better place; earnings aren't so bad; but there are tons of stocks more attractive than the 'golden tech heroes' that got S&P to this level.

In sum: There are more than glimmers of hope for this market; and there may be an 'accident of sorts' (defaults) out there ... but beyond that a lag effect that takes some of the small caps to higher levels.

The new week is a Fed meeting and Quarterly Expiration. Rock & roll time.

Yes it's sort of a Pyrrhic victory with respect to proclaiming a Bull market; but it can be that with broadening, which is the likely alternative with periodic scares along the way. I believe you'll see expanded participation; but confidence may get 'temporarily' shaken by cracks in the mega-caps; then the market adjusts a bit and moves forward anew.

Tonight's Briefing has focused on embedded graphics to tell the story we all at this point know. No sense in second-guessing what the Fed will do. 

Bottom line: The chaos of Fed week looms; plus global considerations. You have a bullish potential few notice; that would be 'if' (and I sort of doubt it) you got inflation to crumble, in which case the Fed would pause; then cut not hike; but with war, global warming and more it's doubtful. The California rains help the harvest prospects out there; and if you get low food and fuel costs; well in real world (not ex food & energy) economics that matters. But it's up in the air.

We are delighted to have opposed the 'doom & gloom' arguments; which from some perspectives seem like they were crafted by an 'adversary' country, not merely a market analyst or website. And guess what ... in a couple cases that is the case; but I won't talk about so-called analysts trying to undermine the US.

There is definitely opportunity for a shakeout; so I'm not critical of arguments of that. I was merely emphasizing for months that small-caps were 'crashed' so you don't get crashes when everyone is prepared for that. They still are for the most part negative; but I am thinking interim stairstep shakeout looming in the near future, not catastrophe. And some stocks that are novel in AI etc. will tend to do well anyway as many look to buy them 'if' they newly set back.

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Market Briefing For Thursday, June 8
Market Briefing For Tuesday, June 6
Market Briefing For Monday, Jun 5