Last week's market run-up- needed consolidation and only got a little bit before the S&P recovered, with the Dow lagging considerably (and a late sell-off).

Freepik

All of that is reasonably impressive considering Apple fell from all-time highs, as it introduced the overly-pricey Vision Pro, which isn't even wireless (yet).

So it remains a top-heavy market, driven higher by AI and big-tech, restrained by Oil prices (which popped on Saudi's latest 'production cut' proclamation, at the same time that didn't hold as far as influencing WTI here). Also the Saudi regime is now allowing Iran to re-open their Embassy in the Kingdom, and on top of that there is some ridiculous expanded so-called security agreement to police the waters of the Persian Gulf.

I think that's a tinderbox in the making, because while sounding 'friendly' both sides can't be trusted there, and Iran might be seeking to reassert not just its influence in the Gulf, but 'sail around provoking traversing traffic' (such as via the Straits of Hormuz) and trying to claim they're in a 'joint security patrol'. So much of this likely reflects Saudi's seeing the U.S. as pivoting towards Asia.

The real news today was the economic slippage, which generally favors the idea of the FOMC next week making 'no change' in interest rates.

The Fed action (or lack) next week, not a debate about Apple (which will do very well with Services as that's a driver of revenues, which Vision Pro won't be for years, and most likely never, despite some believing Metaverse-type devices will dominate GDP growth. (If so not in my lifetime and unlikely in your children's lifetime, but military variations will as they already do... what's not said is this is all a variation of heads-up displays without for now infrared, which is the missing link for night-vision and key for military target acquisition not just in aircraft but in helmets... virtual gun-sights linked to weapons etc.).

The military variations are not made by Apple (AAPL) but by Defense contractors and incidentally little LightPath (LPTH) is a significant supplier of the infrared lenses, with an expectation that they broaden their portfolio with thermal braking modules or other devices based on 'automotive' and licensing from the Navy 'labs'.

In-sum: 

The market is not very heavy considering a solid uplift the prior couple days. So this is acceptable behavior although we're not looking for much more and have suggested some sort of shakeout would be reasonable in a couple of weeks ahead. The catch with that might be next week's FOMC Meeting.

You also had more cases brought related to crypto and failure of Government to 'act' years ago with regulatory guidelines that they didn't do. No problem on this end, I warned consistently, lately described 'toppy' Bitcoin action again, so would continue avoiding that entire category, which has zero interest here.

The S&P rally doesn't need to stack-up to cycle swings or seasonal patterns, that some persist in emphasizing. The reality is bifurcated with varying axis of performance, with the small-caps (even with rebounds) so low that they were a reason we argued against catastrophe because they crashed last year.

Yet again, not broadly exciting, but I proclaimed a 'head & shoulders' bottom last October, and while that's true, this is mostly led by 'big-tech' replacing the traditional Oil, Bank and Auto leadership, which are all less impactful. (Tesla can be slightly included as it was the best selling 'luxury car' last year, that's if you want to consider it in the luxury segment, which I don't.. some might take that stance to make it sound like they're selling more than they are... yes big player, but there is competition and many changes forthcoming.)

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