Precious Metals Speculator Bets Gain As Gold & Silver Positions Rebound From Multi-Year Lows
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, Aug. 2, and it shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 31
COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week, as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning, while only one market recorded lower contracts.
Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was gold (31,636 contracts), with silver (5,474 contracts), platinum (1,927 contracts), and palladium (848 contracts) also having a positive week. The only metals markets with a weekly decline in speculator bets this week was copper with a shortfall of -844 contracts.
Highlighting the metals markets data this week was a rebound in the gold speculator bets. The speculative position for gold futures jumped this week by over +30,000 contracts, and this halted a streak of five straight weeks of declines. Speculator bets had dropped by a total of -70,597 contracts over the previous five weeks, and those declines had brought the overall bullish position to a total of just +92,690 contracts.
This marked the lowest overall speculator standing in the past one hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating back to May 28 of 2019 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic panic. This week’s rebound brings the overall total back above the +120,000 contract level for the first time in four weeks. Gold futures prices have risen back around the $1,800 level after dropping to approximately $1,680 on July 21.
Silver bets also had a rebound this week by over +5,000 contracts, and this put a stop to a five-week slide in speculator bets (total decline of -22,919 contracts). Silver’s positioning has been extremely weak in recent months and had fallen in thirteen out of the previous fourteen weeks through last week.
This week’s rebound brought the overall silver position out of a net bearish level after falling into a bearish position for the first time since June 4 of 2019, a span of 164 weeks. Silver futures prices, meanwhile, ended the week just below the important psychological $20 level after spending a few weeks falling hitting lows down near the $18 level.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
| WTI Crude | 1,606,910 | 3 | 253,752 | 0 | -272,866 | 100 | 19,114 | 42 |
| Corn | 1,347,894 | 6 | 201,355 | 56 | -149,434 | 51 | -51,921 | 13 |
| Natural Gas | 984,570 | 5 | -124,973 | 41 | 87,596 | 58 | 37,377 | 69 |
| Sugar | 760,093 | 11 | 34,438 | 44 | -35,229 | 61 | 791 | 9 |
| Soybeans | 572,925 | 0 | 92,527 | 42 | -65,632 | 64 | -26,895 | 26 |
| Gold | 459,649 | 2 | 124,326 | 12 | -135,565 | 90 | 11,239 | 0 |
| Wheat | 316,244 | 12 | -725 | 18 | 10,888 | 75 | -10,163 | 58 |
| Heating Oil | 276,520 | 26 | 22,068 | 75 | -35,389 | 34 | 13,321 | 44 |
| Coffee | 207,740 | 12 | 27,284 | 62 | -27,968 | 44 | 684 | 6 |
| Copper | 184,441 | 16 | -27,406 | 23 | 27,672 | 78 | -266 | 24 |
| Brent | 171,751 | 17 | -32,782 | 56 | 31,835 | 46 | 947 | 22 |
| Silver | 136,267 | 3 | 974 | 7 | -9,064 | 93 | 8,090 | 8 |
| Platinum | 68,266 | 36 | -2,541 | 5 | -1,708 | 96 | 4,249 | 21 |
| Palladium | 6,945 | 3 | -2,560 | 8 | 2,743 | 90 | -183 | 33 |
Strength Scores
Strength scores (a measure of the three-year range of speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the copper (22.6%) continues to lead the metals, although with a low score that is just outside an extreme bearish position (below 20%).
Gold (12.1%), palladium (8.4%), silver (6.6%), and platinum (4.6%) all have strength scores that remain in bearish extreme levels (below 20%), but all of these markets have improving scores compared to last week.
Strength Statistics
- Gold (12.1%) vs. gold the previous week (0.0%).
- Silver (6.6%) vs. silver the previous week (0.0%).
- Copper (22.6%) vs. copper the previous week (23.2%).
- Platinum (4.6%) vs. platinum the previous week (2.0%).
- Palladium (8.4%) vs. palladium the previous week (3.7%).
Strength Trends
Strength score trends (or the move index, which calculates the six-week changes in strength scores) showed that the palladium (8.4%) leads the past six weeks' trends for metals this week, and it is the only market with a positive six-week trend score. Silver (-21.2%) and gold (-14.9%) lead the downside trend scores currently, followed by platinum (-5.5%) and copper (-4.7%).
Move Statistics
- Gold (-14.9%) vs. gold the previous week (-23.7%).
- Silver (-21.2%) vs. silver the previous week (-22.5%).
- Copper (-4.7%) vs. copper the previous week (-9.2%).
- Platinum (-5.5%) vs. platinum the previous week (-9.1%).
- Palladium (8.4%) vs. palladium the previous week (3.7%).
Individual Markets - Gold Comex Futures
The gold Comex futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 124,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,636 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 92,690 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 52.7 | 27.8 | 8.2 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.6 | 57.3 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 124,326 | -135,565 | 11,239 |
| – Gross Longs: | 242,128 | 127,700 | 37,481 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 117,802 | 263,265 | 26,242 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 12.1 | 90.2 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.9 | 18.5 | -33.9 |
Silver Comex Futures
The silver Comex futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,474 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2%.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 36.1 | 40.8 | 16.3 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.4 | 47.4 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | 974 | -9,064 | 8,090 |
| – Gross Longs: | 49,220 | 55,536 | 22,198 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 48,246 | 64,600 | 14,108 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.6 | 93.5 | 8.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.2 | 18.5 | -3.6 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures
The copper Grade #1 futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -844 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -26,562 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7%.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 27.3 | 45.8 | 7.3 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.1 | 30.8 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | -27,406 | 27,672 | -266 |
| – Gross Longs: | 50,317 | 84,447 | 13,430 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 77,723 | 56,775 | 13,696 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.6 | 78.5 | 23.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.7 | 6.0 | -13.2 |
Platinum Futures
The platinum futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,927 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -4,468 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2%.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 42.0 | 38.9 | 11.2 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.7 | 41.4 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | -2,541 | -1,708 | 4,249 |
| – Gross Longs: | 28,648 | 26,551 | 7,673 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,189 | 28,259 | 3,424 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.6 | 96.2 | 21.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.5 | 6.1 | -9.2 |
Palladium Futures
The palladium futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 848 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -3,408 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3%.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 13.9 | 63.4 | 15.1 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 50.8 | 23.9 | 17.8 |
| – Net Position: | -2,560 | 2,743 | -183 |
| – Gross Longs: | 965 | 4,400 | 1,051 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 3,525 | 1,657 | 1,234 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.4 | 90.1 | 33.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.4 | -9.9 | 16.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is three days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits), and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators), as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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