COT Week 30 Charts: Energy Speculator Bets Rise Higher Led By Heating Oil & Gasoline
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes
COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.
Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (9,441 contracts) with Gasoline (5,588 contracts), Natural Gas (2,033 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-180 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-11,831 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,535 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
| WTI Crude | 1,597,451 | 2 | 259,260 | 0 | -283,489 | 100 | 24,229 | 49 |
| Corn | 1,320,768 | 2 | 186,528 | 54 | -138,899 | 52 | -47,629 | 16 |
| Natural Gas | 976,126 | 4 | -118,290 | 43 | 83,028 | 57 | 35,262 | 64 |
| Sugar | 722,469 | 4 | 64,103 | 50 | -65,756 | 56 | 1,653 | 10 |
| Soybeans | 583,850 | 0 | 85,241 | 40 | -57,573 | 66 | -27,668 | 24 |
| Gold | 487,515 | 10 | 92,690 | 0 | -108,422 | 100 | 15,732 | 0 |
| Wheat | 301,674 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 8,068 | 71 | -8,093 | 68 |
| Heating Oil | 269,127 | 23 | 18,684 | 70 | -33,531 | 36 | 14,847 | 50 |
| Coffee | 199,536 | 5 | 28,641 | 64 | -28,867 | 43 | 226 | 2 |
| Copper | 183,958 | 15 | -26,562 | 23 | 26,839 | 78 | -277 | 24 |
| Brent | 177,837 | 22 | -41,482 | 42 | 40,557 | 61 | 925 | 22 |
| Silver | 147,784 | 14 | -4,500 | 0 | -2,653 | 100 | 7,153 | 4 |
| Platinum | 73,423 | 45 | -4,468 | 2 | -171 | 98 | 4,639 | 27 |
| Palladium | 7,124 | 4 | -3,408 | 4 | 3,894 | 97 | -486 | 16 |
Strength Scores
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (69.9 percent) leads the energy markets this week and is up from 56.0 percent last week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.6 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores but has been down-trending in past weeks followed by Natural Gas (43.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (41.6 percent). On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its three-year range. Gasoline (17.4 percent) is the next lowest and joins the WTI Crude in a bearish extreme level (under 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.9 percent)
Natural Gas (43.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (42.5 percent)
Gasoline (17.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.8 percent)
Heating Oil (69.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (53.4 percent)
Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (15.0 percent) has the highest six-week trend for energy this week. Gasoline (14.0 percent) and Natural Gas (1.6 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-28.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were WTI Crude Oil (-13.2 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.6 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-13.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-17.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-8.7 percent)
Natural Gas (1.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-1.8 percent)
Gasoline (14.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.4 percent)
Heating Oil (15.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (6.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-28.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-22.0 percent)
Individual Markets:
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 259,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,091 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.1 | 37.2 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.8 | 55.0 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 259,260 | -283,489 | 24,229 |
| – Gross Longs: | 368,453 | 595,032 | 79,895 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 109,193 | 878,521 | 55,666 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 49.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.2 | 17.9 | -20.4 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures:
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,302 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.9 | 53.2 | 3.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.3 | 30.4 | 3.4 |
| – Net Position: | -41,482 | 40,557 | 925 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,547 | 94,590 | 7,001 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 68,029 | 54,033 | 6,076 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.6 | 60.7 | 21.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.6 | 9.9 | -11.7 |
Natural Gas Futures:
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,323 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.8 | 40.1 | 6.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.9 | 31.6 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | -118,290 | 83,028 | 35,262 |
| – Gross Longs: | 183,441 | 391,771 | 65,474 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 301,731 | 308,743 | 30,212 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 43.1 | 57.0 | 63.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | 2.8 | -32.8 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures:
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,816 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.1 | 48.8 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.4 | 68.5 | 5.8 |
| – Net Position: | 45,404 | -50,319 | 4,915 |
| – Gross Longs: | 74,431 | 124,784 | 19,651 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 29,027 | 175,103 | 14,736 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.4 | 83.1 | 45.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.0 | -6.4 | -48.6 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,243 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.0 | 52.0 | 15.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.1 | 64.5 | 9.8 |
| – Net Position: | 18,684 | -33,531 | 14,847 |
| – Gross Longs: | 43,158 | 139,948 | 41,336 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,474 | 173,479 | 26,489 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.9 | 35.6 | 49.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.0 | -5.2 | -18.6 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,128 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.7 | 76.6 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.2 | 54.5 | 0.2 |
| – Net Position: | -15,663 | 15,400 | 263 |
| – Gross Longs: | 14,435 | 53,388 | 374 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,098 | 37,988 | 111 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 3.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.6 | 52.5 | 19.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -28.1 | 29.4 | -11.4 |
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
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