Energy Speculator Bets Go Higher Led By Natural Gas & Gasoline
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, July 19th, and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes
COT energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.
Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (11,280 contracts) with Gasoline (7,074 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (2,763 contracts), and Heating Oil (2,515 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3,413 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-2,914 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
| WTI Crude | 1,577,616 | 0 | 271,091 | 1 | -293,689 | 100 | 22,598 | 47 |
| Corn | 1,308,458 | 0 | 209,940 | 57 | -165,611 | 48 | -44,329 | 18 |
| Natural Gas | 953,325 | 0 | -120,323 | 42 | 86,699 | 58 | 33,624 | 60 |
| Sugar | 703,614 | 0 | 127,162 | 63 | -141,842 | 41 | 14,680 | 26 |
| Soybeans | 602,987 | 0 | 102,593 | 45 | -74,427 | 61 | -28,166 | 23 |
| Gold | 524,786 | 21 | 94,955 | 0 | -112,262 | 100 | 17,307 | 0 |
| Wheat | 292,700 | 2 | 6,522 | 28 | 3,173 | 64 | -9,695 | 60 |
| Heating Oil | 267,576 | 22 | 9,243 | 56 | -23,800 | 46 | 14,557 | 49 |
| Coffee | 196,041 | 3 | 27,979 | 63 | -28,026 | 44 | 47 | 0 |
| Brent | 177,889 | 22 | -41,302 | 42 | 40,843 | 61 | 459 | 15 |
| Copper | 174,592 | 8 | -23,836 | 25 | 23,745 | 76 | 91 | 26 |
| Silver | 145,247 | 12 | 1,360 | 0 | -8,213 | 100 | 6,853 | 2 |
| Platinum | 75,069 | 47 | -4,282 | 2 | -273 | 98 | 4,555 | 26 |
| Palladium | 6,915 | 3 | -3,751 | 2 | 4,302 | 99 | -551 | 12 |
Strength Scores
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extremely bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Heating Oil (56.0 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.4 percent) lead the energy markets with both above the 50 percent level of the past three year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (11.8 percent) with both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
- WTI Crude Oil (0.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
- Brent Crude Oil (41.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (46.8 percent)
- Natural Gas (42.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.1 percent)
- Gasoline (11.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (4.7 percent)
- Heating Oil (56.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (52.3 percent)
- Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (66.5 percent)
Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, which calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Gasoline (9.4 percent) leads the past six weeks' trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (6.4 percent) is the only positive mover in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-22.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was WTI Crude Oil (-17.8 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.7 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
- WTI Crude Oil (-17.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-20.1 percent)
- Brent Crude Oil (-8.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (4.2 percent)
- Natural Gas (-1.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.4 percent)
- Gasoline (9.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.0 percent)
- Heating Oil (6.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (9.7 percent)
- Bloomberg Commodity Index (-22.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-0.6 percent)
Individual Markets:
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 271,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,328 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.7 | 36.8 | 4.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.6 | 55.4 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | 271,091 | -293,689 | 22,598 |
| – Gross Longs: | 374,677 | 580,330 | 73,482 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 103,586 | 874,019 | 50,884 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.9 | 100.0 | 46.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.8 | 23.9 | -25.6 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures:
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,388 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.6 | 52.5 | 3.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.8 | 29.6 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | -41,302 | 40,843 | 459 |
| – Gross Longs: | 27,724 | 93,411 | 6,899 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 69,026 | 52,568 | 6,440 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.9 | 61.2 | 15.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.7 | 11.0 | -19.4 |
Natural Gas Futures:
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -120,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,603 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.3 | 42.0 | 6.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.9 | 32.9 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | -120,323 | 86,699 | 33,624 |
| – Gross Longs: | 183,610 | 400,468 | 63,072 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 303,933 | 313,769 | 29,448 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 42.5 | 58.2 | 59.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.8 | 6.4 | -33.7 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures:
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,742 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.9 | 51.7 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.2 | 68.6 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 39,816 | -45,501 | 5,685 |
| – Gross Longs: | 72,688 | 139,646 | 19,650 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 32,872 | 185,147 | 13,965 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.8 | 87.7 | 50.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.4 | -3.5 | -37.9 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.1 | 54.1 | 15.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.6 | 62.9 | 10.3 |
| – Net Position: | 9,243 | -23,800 | 14,557 |
| – Gross Longs: | 37,695 | 144,635 | 42,056 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 28,452 | 168,435 | 27,499 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.0 | 45.9 | 48.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.4 | 0.7 | -17.3 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,715 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.1 | 76.9 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 40.0 | 56.3 | 0.2 |
| – Net Position: | -14,128 | 13,905 | 223 |
| – Gross Longs: | 12,868 | 51,893 | 364 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,996 | 37,988 | 141 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 53.4 | 46.8 | 18.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.0 | 23.2 | -11.8 |
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
More By This Author:
COT Week 28 Charts: Stock Market Speculators Bets Declined Overall Led By S&P500-Mini & VIX
COT Week 28 Charts: Energy Speculator Bets Mixed Led By Gasoline & Heating Oil
COT Week 28 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Bets Drop Lower Led By Corn, Coffee & Soybeans
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