COT Week 28 Charts: Energy Speculator Bets Mixed Led By Gasoline & Heating Oil

 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets saw decreasing net positions for the week.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Gasoline (4,721 contracts) with Heating Oil (242 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (126 contracts) also showing very small positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-12,195 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3,229 contracts) with Natural Gas (-1,084 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


 


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

WTI Crude 1,612,803 0 268,328 0 -294,526 100 26,198 52
Corn 1,333,199 0 247,156 62 -196,533 44 -50,623 14
Natural Gas 969,204 0 -131,603 39 94,195 61 37,408 69
Sugar 701,144 0 105,869 58 -115,779 46 9,910 20
Soybeans 611,751 1 115,119 49 -87,284 57 -27,835 24
Gold 542,493 26 118,121 0 -137,788 100 19,667 0
Wheat 288,182 0 4,639 25 5,041 67 -9,680 60
Heating Oil 266,330 22 6,728 52 -22,853 47 16,125 54
Coffee 195,810 2 34,308 68 -35,166 37 858 0
Copper 172,037 6 -26,295 23 27,061 78 -766 21
Brent 171,950 17 -38,388 47 36,619 54 1,769 33
Silver 142,259 9 3,204 0 -9,612 100 6,408 0
Platinum 75,615 48 -5,911 0 1,235 100 4,676 27
Palladium 6,474 1 -2,802 7 3,252 93 -450 18

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (66.5 percent) and Heating Oil (52.3 percent) lead the energy markets this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has been the strongest strength score in the past few weeks but came down from a 78.8 percent score last week showing a weakening strength compared to the 3-year range. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) and Gasoline (4.7 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are both in bearish extreme levels (near the bottom of their 3-year ranges).


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (46.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (46.5 percent)
Natural Gas (39.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.4 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (0.0 percent)
Heating Oil (52.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (52.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (66.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (78.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (9.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) is the only positive mover in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-20.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-6.4 percent) followed by Gasoline (-1.0 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-16.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (1.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-5.7 percent)
Gasoline (-1.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-4.4 percent)
Heating Oil (9.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-0.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (7.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 268,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 280,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.3 36.6 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 54.9 3.5
– Net Position: 268,328 -294,526 26,198
– Gross Longs: 375,155 590,438 82,523
– Gross Shorts: 106,827 884,964 56,325
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.1 25.2 -20.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.6 52.2 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.0 30.9 3.1
– Net Position: -38,388 36,619 1,769
– Gross Longs: 26,868 89,831 7,060
– Gross Shorts: 65,256 53,212 5,291
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.8 54.2 33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -3.9 -2.2

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT Chart

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -131,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.9 41.2 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.5 31.4 2.9
– Net Position: -131,603 94,195 37,408
– Gross Longs: 183,194 398,833 65,940
– Gross Shorts: 314,797 304,638 28,532
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.1 60.6 68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 10.9 -31.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT Chart

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.1 55.1 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 69.2 5.1
– Net Position: 32,742 -38,954 6,212
– Gross Longs: 69,876 153,217 20,335
– Gross Shorts: 37,134 192,171 14,123
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.7 94.0 54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 6.8 -40.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT Chart

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.8 52.7 16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 61.3 10.1
– Net Position: 6,728 -22,853 16,125
– Gross Longs: 36,724 140,444 43,002
– Gross Shorts: 29,996 163,297 26,877
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.3 46.9 54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -5.2 -6.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT Chart

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 72.9 0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 57.1 0.2
– Net Position: -10,715 10,480 235
– Gross Longs: 15,577 48,468 360
– Gross Shorts: 26,292 37,988 125
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.5 33.6 18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.6 1.7 -12.0

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

COT Week 27 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Bets Go Lower Led By Corn, Sugar & Cocoa
COT Week 27 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets Higher Overall Led By Ultra US Bonds & 2-Year Bonds
COT Week 27 Charts: Energy Speculator Bets Drop Led By WTI Crude Oil & Gasoline

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

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