COT Week 27 Charts: Energy Speculator Bets Drop Led By WTI Crude Oil & Gasoline

energy markets open interest futures pie chart percents

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

The only market to show speculator bet gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil with a gain of +4,163 contracts. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-19,169 contracts) and Gasoline (-4,078 contracts) with Natural Gas (-1,100 contracts), Heating Oil (-1,022 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-137 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


energy speculator futures positions strength scores

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.8 percent) is above its midpoint for the past 3 years and leads the way for the energy markets in speculator sentiment. Brent oil (46.5 percent) and Heating oil (52 percent) are also positive while WTI Crude (0 percent) and Gasoline (0 percent) are at the bottom of their 3-year ranges and in bearish extreme levels.


 

energy futures speculator trends

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating oil (18.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7.8 percent) lead the rising scores over the past six weeks. WTI Crude oil, meanwhile, has been on the largest downtrend with a -17.6 percent score for the past six weeks, followed by Natural Gas (-5.7 percent) and Gasoline (-4.4 percent).



Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

WTI Crude 1,637,862 0 280,523 0 -304,217 100 23,694 48
Corn 1,331,035 0 260,705 63 -207,441 42 -53,264 12
Natural Gas 977,507 0 -130,519 39 91,950 60 38,569 71
Sugar 713,245 0 83,512 54 -85,255 52 1,743 10
Soybeans 638,675 7 125,491 52 -93,638 56 -31,853 17
Gold 498,210 13 145,660 0 -165,585 100 19,925 0
Wheat 288,754 0 8,384 30 623 61 -9,007 64
Heating Oil 264,269 21 6,486 52 -22,775 47 16,289 55
Coffee 193,731 1 46,787 79 -49,139 25 2,352 14
Copper 183,331 15 -31,796 19 31,340 81 456 28
Brent 166,711 13 -38,514 47 37,309 55 1,205 26
Silver 140,463 7 5,139 0 -11,622 100 6,483 0
Platinum 72,895 44 -2,734 0 -1,670 100 4,404 23
Palladium 7,373 5 -3,410 4 4,104 98 -694 4

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 280,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 36.8 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 55.3 3.5
– Net Position: 280,523 -304,217 23,694
– Gross Longs: 394,943 601,996 81,558
– Gross Shorts: 114,420 906,213 57,864
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 23.1 -22.8

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.4 52.4 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.5 30.0 3.4
– Net Position: -38,514 37,309 1,205
– Gross Longs: 25,605 87,320 6,881
– Gross Shorts: 64,119 50,011 5,676
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.5 55.3 25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -0.3 -8.1

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT Chart

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -130,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.2 40.6 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 31.2 2.8
– Net Position: -130,519 91,950 38,569
– Gross Longs: 197,937 397,060 66,331
– Gross Shorts: 328,456 305,110 27,762
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 59.9 71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 8.9 -21.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT Chart

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 52.7 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 64.7 5.7
– Net Position: 28,021 -32,693 4,672
– Gross Longs: 72,955 142,761 20,221
– Gross Shorts: 44,934 175,454 15,549
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.4 10.5 -43.3

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT Chart

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.0 52.7 16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.5 61.3 9.9
– Net Position: 6,486 -22,775 16,289
– Gross Longs: 39,513 139,296 42,410
– Gross Shorts: 33,027 162,071 26,121
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.0 47.0 54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.7 -12.3 -3.9

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT Chart

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.4 66.8 0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 56.1 0.2
– Net Position: -7,486 7,242 244
– Gross Longs: 18,524 45,230 367
– Gross Shorts: 26,010 37,988 123
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.8 21.1 19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -6.8 -10.4

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


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