COT Week 30 Charts: Stock Market Speculator Bets Lower As S&P500 Positions Drop

 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (8,866 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (3,692 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-29,487 contracts) and the VIX (-22,665 contracts) with the Dow Jones Mini (-5,348 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-4,522 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-1,263 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the stock markets COT data this week was the continued drop in speculator bets for the S&P500 mini contracts. The SP500 mini spec positions declined for the fifth time in the past six weeks and have now seen a total of -271,913 contracts fall off the net position since June 14th (when the net position was at a total of +34,278 contracts). The current standing for speculators this week is a total of -237,635 contracts. This marks the lowest level since June 16th of 2020 which was shortly after global markets were rocked by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders

S&P500-Mini 2,322,824 9 -237,635 12 290,090 100 -52,455 15
VIX 300,870 27 -92,565 63 99,524 38 -6,959 58
Nasdaq-Mini 267,158 52 31,809 93 -25,473 11 -6,336 35
DowJones-Mini 73,288 32 -21,185 9 27,106 96 -5,921 7
Nikkei 225 Yen 58,458 41 6,189 53 22,278 83 -28,467 16
Nikkei 225 13,545 8 -4,390 57 3,684 48 706 37

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (92.8 percent) continues to lead the stock markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (62.9 percent) and the Nikkei USD (56.6 percent) come in as the next highest stocks markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (7.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent), the S&P500-Mini (12.2 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (18.6 percent). These four markets are all in extreme bearish readings.


Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (74.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (92.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (10.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (62.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (1.9 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. These two markets are the only markets currently with positive six-week scores. The S&P500-Mini (-50.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the EAFE-Mini (-24.8 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-9.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-6.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-50.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (5.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (1.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-15.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-9.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-24.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-30.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.8 62.3 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.6 29.2 10.3
– Net Position: -92,565 99,524 -6,959
– Gross Longs: 35,596 187,508 23,954
– Gross Shorts: 128,161 87,984 30,913
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.9 37.6 57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 9.2 -2.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -237,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.4 77.3 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 64.8 11.8
– Net Position: -237,635 290,090 -52,455
– Gross Longs: 240,642 1,795,164 221,627
– Gross Shorts: 478,277 1,505,074 274,082
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 100.0 15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -50.4 48.5 -9.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.8 64.0 13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 27.0 21.8
– Net Position: -21,185 27,106 -5,921
– Gross Longs: 15,955 46,903 10,025
– Gross Shorts: 37,140 19,797 15,946
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.4 95.7 6.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 3.3 -20.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,117 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 53.3 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 62.9 15.1
– Net Position: 31,809 -25,473 -6,336
– Gross Longs: 83,491 142,520 33,962
– Gross Shorts: 51,682 167,993 40,298
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.8 10.8 35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -2.8 2.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 88.0 3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 68.8 4.3
– Net Position: -105,211 110,009 -4,798
– Gross Longs: 42,107 502,434 19,764
– Gross Shorts: 147,318 392,425 24,562
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 92.7 12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.6 10.7 -32.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 60.6 28.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 33.4 23.1
– Net Position: -4,390 3,684 706
– Gross Longs: 1,478 8,204 3,832
– Gross Shorts: 5,868 4,520 3,126
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 48.1 37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 8.2 4.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 91.9 2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.2 88.5 1.4
– Net Position: -16,807 13,755 3,052
– Gross Longs: 20,928 376,015 8,694
– Gross Shorts: 37,735 362,260 5,642
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.6 86.7 45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.8 22.1 28.3

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


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