Grains Report - Monday, Dec. 11
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week and trends are still up on the weekly charts on news of significant purchases of US Wheat by China. He WASDE reports showed the Chinese demand through higher export demand and lower ending stocks. Costs for transport of Ukraine Wheat are high and this has hurt any sales. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 657 March. Support is at 622, 609 and 605 March, with resistance at 653, 670, and 680 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 633, 622, and 617 March, with resistance at 670, 677, and 687 \March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 719, 716, and 698 March, and resistance is at 748, 753, and 768 March.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower last week despite some buying late in the week tied to good export demand and demand ideas in general. USDA increased imports into the US for Rice and also ending stocks estimates by 1.0 million cwt. on Friday. World data also showed negative trade ideas. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady. Short term trends remain down in this market. The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action last week since the gap was filled. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The daily and weekly chart trends are down.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1667, and 1640 January and resistance is at 1707, 1730, and 1746 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher as export demand was better than expected by traders. Oats were lower. USDA recognized the better export demand by raising the demand by 25 million bushels and cutting ending stocks by the same amount to 2.131 billion bushels. It is still a big ending stocks estimate but the estimate is a little lower than before. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last weekend and more showers and rains are possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 477, 471, and 468 March, and resistance is at 489, 493, and 496 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 356, 351, and 342 March, and resistance is at 382, 398, and 403 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower on unchanged data for the US WASDE estimates. World estimates showed decreased production for the current year in Brazil to 161 million tons. Reports of improved rains for central and northern Brazil this week are still heard although still too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybeans appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1292, 1270, and 1258 January, and resistance is at 1331, 1339, and 1352 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 399.00 January. Support is at 403.00, 398.00, and 388.00 January, and resistance is at 414.00, 423.00, and 435.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4820 January, with resistance at 5200, 5360, and 5420 January.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils prices were down last week with some of the selling related to weakness in Crude Oil futures The market held steady tosay in response to weaker export news. .Palm Oil was lower along with weakness in Soybean Oil and on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for the month so far. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed lower with Chicago Soybeans and on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 646.00, 642.00, and 636.00 January, with resistance at 678.00, 682.00, and 693.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3680 February. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3640 February, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3980 February.
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