DJ Global Food Prices Held Steady in November, Driving Further Inflation Concerns — Update
By Yusuf Khan
Global food prices held steady in November after lower prices for grains and meats were offset by rising costs for sugar, vegetable oil and dairy products, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Friday.
The UN FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 120.4 points in November, unchanged from October’s revised level.
The lack of a price fall could add worry for policymakers trying to fight persistently high inflation rates, with elevated food costs adding pressure on consumers. However, food prices are still 11% lower than they were a year ago.
Vegetable oil prices rose 3.4% in November compared with the prior month, the FAO said. Palm oil prices in particular rose 6%, with demand from importing countries rising. Dairy prices were also 2.2% higher, with demand for skimmed milk powder and butter in Northeast Asia pushing up prices.
Sugar prices were also up 1.4%, putting prices more than 41% higher year on year. Supply is currently being threatened by severe dry weather conditions in Thailand and India–two leading sugar export countries.
That said, prices for grains fell 3% in the month, led by a fall in coarse grain prices including corn. The FAO said wheat prices also dropped 2.4%, however futures have been rising in recent days on reports of higher demand from China. Chicago futures are up nearly 18% this quarter with prices trading at $6.39 a bushel.
Meat prices meanwhile slipped 0.4%, with prices 2.4% lower than where they were a year ago.
The FAO added that it is now forecasting record grain production this year at 2.823 billion tons, roughly 10 million tons higher than the previous record set in 2021. Most of this gain has been led by bumper wheat crops in Russia and corn in the U.S.

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed sharply higher, and at limit up levels in early trading. The export sales report was positive for prices once again this week and featured sales to China. The US Dollar has been higher and economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.71 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 6,126 bales, from 6,126 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 815 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 80.50, 80.00, and 78.60 March, with resistance of 83.00, 83.70 and 85.50 March.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday, and the short term trends are now mixed in this market. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 361.00, 352.00, and 346.00 January, with resistance at 398.00, 40a5.00, and 408.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Dec 7
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
11/11/2023 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
11/11/2023 11/12/2022 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 62.09 115.59 -46.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.89 6.81 -13.5%
Total 67.98 122.40 -44.5%
Pack
Bulk 0.21 0.31 -31.7%
Retail/Institutional 0.85 1.21 -29.9%
Total Pack 1.06 1.52 -30.3%
Reprocessed -1.06 -1.47 -27.9%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.05 -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.14 0.09 56.6%
Imports – Foreign 1.13 0.76 48.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.09 0.10 -4.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 62.61 115.37 -45.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.74 8.02 -15.9%
Total 69.35 123.40 -43.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.94 5.59 -47.4%
Exports 0.00 0.16 -100.0%
Total (Bulk) 2.94 5.75 -48.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.14 1.19 -4.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.14 1.19 -4.1%
Total Movement 4.09 6.94 -41.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 59.67 109.63 -45.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.60 6.83 -18.0%
Ending Inventory 65.27 116.46 -44.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
11-Nov-23 12-Nov-22 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 65.18 119.13 -45.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.20 6.60 -21.2%
Total 70.38 125.74 -44.0%
Pack
Bulk 1.83 4.32 -57.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.61 7.45 -11.2%
Total Pack 8.44 11.77 -28.3%
Reprocessed -8.44 -11.59 -27.2%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.18 -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.79 0.47 69.2%
Imports – Foreign 18.17 24.54 -26.0%
Domestic Receipts 1.35 0.00 NA
Receipts of Florida Produ
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.18 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.09 0.10 -4.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.14 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 78.97 137.29 -42.5%
Retail/Institutional 11.82 14.05 -15.9%
Total 90.79 151.35 -40.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 19.06 26.96 -29.3%
Domestic 0.24 0.71 -65.8%
Exports 19.31 27.67 -30.2%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 6.22 7.22 -13.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 6.22 7.22 -13.9%
Total Movement 25.52 34.89 -26.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 59.67 109.63 -45.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.60 6.83 -18.0%
Ending Inventory 65.27 116.46 -44.0%

Coffee

General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday in recovery trading on rains in Brazil so far this week and forecasts for more into the weekend. Futures have rallied a lot and an uptick in producer selling was reported. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production and there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand just yet. The forecasts some northern areas to get showers and rains and these areas should include some Coffee production regions that have dried recently. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.234 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 165.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that there were 2 contracts tendered for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 145 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 175.00, 169.00, and 165.00 March, and resistance is at 186.00, 188.00 and 191.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2700 January. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2470 January, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on fund long liquidation tied to the Brazil weather and on reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU. Better than expected rains fell in Brazil over the weekend and Brazil weather forecasts now call for a return to wet in the south and continued showers and rains in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 March and resistance is at 2360, 2400, and 2450 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 640.00, 637.00, and 634.00 March, with resistance at 650.00, 674.00, and 687.00 March.

Cocoea

General Comments: New York and London closed higher and held to a trading range. It looks like the long liquidation seen in this market much of the week is now done. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.286 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 820 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4140, 4100, and 4040 March, with resistance at 4230, 4290, and 4320 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3440, 3400, and 3360 March, with resistance at 3540, 3570, and 3600 March.

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Grains Report - Thursday, Dec. 7
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