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Assessing The Business Cycle, Mid-May 2019
Article By: Menzie Chinn
Sunday, May 19, 2019 2:56 PM EDT
Several key series look like they have peaked with nowcasts indicating slowing growth and forward looking indicators looking “iffy”. Most everybody agrees on a short term deceleration in growth in Q2.
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update - Saturday, May 18
Article By: Jill Mislinski
Saturday, May 18, 2019 7:33 PM EDT
Friday morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 146.7, down 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.84%, down from last week.
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The Week Ahead Featuring The Battle For 7.0
Article By: Marc Chandler
Saturday, May 18, 2019 5:40 PM EDT
There are short-run and longer-term consequences of the strategic objective is to integrate China into the world economy. Most immediately, volatility in the equities has risen, which is associated with falling stock prices.
In this article: VIX
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Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 20 And 27
Article By: Peter Morici
Saturday, May 18, 2019 4:57 PM EDT
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data including such important data releases as New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and GDP for Q1.
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Low Inflation: Consumers See A Core Disconnect
Article By: Global X ETFs
Saturday, May 18, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
The White House and the Fed continue to tell us that inflation is largely nonexistent and life isn’t that much more expensive. They’re wrong—it is.
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A Recession Warning In Industrial Production & Housing?
Article By: Upfina
Saturday, May 18, 2019 12:21 PM EDT
The industrial production report signaled a recession could be coming. The two things that can save the economy are that it is well-diversified and that this report may have been week because of a calendar quirk.
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Confidence In Consumer Confidence Surveys Plummets
Article By: Tyler Durden
Saturday, May 18, 2019 11:00 AM EDT
Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed that, following a small dip in April, in May US consumers responded with a surprising surge in confidence.
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E Despite Strong Gains In April, US Job Growth Is Bound To Slow Later This Year And In 2020
Article By: Arthur Donner
Saturday, May 18, 2019 2:00 AM EDT
The April jobs report was positive for the equity markets in the sense that it reinforced the idea that the economy doesn’t need the Fed to ride to its rescue with interest rate cuts.
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Will The U.S.-China Trade War Hurt Consumer Spending?
Video By: Russell Investments
Saturday, May 18, 2019 12:30 AM EDT
We discuss the recent setback in U.S.-China trade negotiations and what it may mean for markets going forward, as well as, the trade war’s potential impacts on the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) monetary policy and Chinese fiscal stimulus.
In this video: SPX
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Trade Tenor Typically Trying
Article By: Bespoke Investment Group
Friday, May 17, 2019 6:00 PM EDT
Stocks started the week poorly but found excuses to rally midweek, just not enough to get all the way up to breakeven since last Friday. Global economic data continued to look mostly soggy, though not across the board.
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Record-Setting Art Sales Confirm Global Liquidity Bubble
Article By: Jesse Colombo
Friday, May 17, 2019 4:40 PM EDT
When the art market goes ballistic, that is typically a sign that the economic cycle is in its latter stages.
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Housing Market Index Strong & Industrial Production Weak
Article By: TheoTrade
Friday, May 17, 2019 4:24 PM EDT
May Home Price index showed further improvement. Industrial production report was weak like the retail sales report.
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Next Week’s Economic Indicators – Friday, May 17
Article By: Bespoke Investment Group
Friday, May 17, 2019 4:12 PM EDT
Turning to next week, it will be a light data slate with only 14 releases all week.
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update - Friday, May 17
Article By: Jill Mislinski
Friday, May 17, 2019 4:00 PM EDT
The latest index reading came in at 10.3, up from 8.85 the previous week.
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Used Class 8 Truck Sales Crash
Article By: Tyler Durden
Friday, May 17, 2019 2:48 PM EDT
The outlook for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks, an industry used as a leading indicator barometer for the broader economy, continues to deteriorate.
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Jobless Claims Decrease As Stocks Rallied Again
Article By: TheoTrade
Friday, May 17, 2019 2:00 PM EDT
The decline in jobless claims is a positive for the stock market in the midst of mostly weak economic reports which have the GDP Nowcast only expecting 1.2% growth in Q2.
In this article: SPX, VIX, NDX, IWM, TNX
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