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Probability Of Recession: In 12 Months Vs. Within 12 Months
Article By: Menzie Chinn
Friday, December 6, 2019 5:30 AM EST
With increasing term spreads (or, steepening of the yield curve), fears of imminent recession have waned. Does this make sense?
In this article: IEF
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Warning Signs Flash As High Yield Corporate Debt Mounts
Article By: Interactive Brokers
Thursday, December 5, 2019 3:00 PM EST
The allure of higher-yielding, U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds has led to a massive spike in issuance volumes, along with heightened risks of refinancing failures and potential defaults.
In this article: MDR, HYG, TWTR, VIX, MOG-A
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The Bond Market Is Nuts
Article By: Dennis Miller
Thursday, December 5, 2019 6:20 AM EST
The bond market is absolutely nuts – devoid of any common sense.
In this article: IEF, TLT, TYX
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China Set To Make History With Record Number Of Bond Defaults In 2019
Article By: Tyler Durden
Thursday, December 5, 2019 3:55 AM EST
After a brief lull in the third quarter, a burst of at least 15 new defaults since the start of November have sent the year’s total to 120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion) and set to eclipse the 121.9 billion yuan annual record in 2018.
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The Credit Market Powder Keg
Article By: Acting Man
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 10:42 PM EST
By all accounts, credit markets remain on fire. 2019 is already a record year for corporate bond issuance, beating the previous record set in 2017 by a sizable margin.
In this article: HYG, JNK
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Many Catalysts Can Wreck The QE-Inspired Bubble
Article By: Gary Gordon
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 1:38 PM EST
Over the last five years, stock prices for the S&P 500 have gained more than 50%. Meanwhile, after-tax profits at non-financial companies have actually declined in the period. Is that sustainable?
In this article: CLX, JNJ, PEP, PDEC, IEF, SPX
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Principles Of Valuation Part 2: Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Article By: Chuck Carnevale
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 10:50 AM EST
Common stocks are certainly not as safe as treasury bonds, however, the principles behind sound valuation still apply.
In this article: ABC, SO, IEF
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Ugly Manufacturing Numbers And Recessions: The Key Factor To Watch
Article By: Andres Cardenal
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 4:50 AM EST
The ugly ISM manufacturing numbers on Monday triggered recession worries and a big sell-off in stocks. The IHS Markit manufacturing data looks much better, both in the U.S. and globally.
In this article: HYG, IEF, SPY, TLT
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Financial Markets Report For Tuesday, Dec. 3
Video By: Ira Epstein
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 11:56 PM EST
A review of Tuesday's trading as seen in the major financial markets.
In this video: BNO, FXB, FXC, FXY, IEF, IWM, OIL, TLT, UNG, UUP, NDX, SPX, VIX, DJI, BITCOMP
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Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - Tuesday, Dec. 3
Article By: Jill Mislinski
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 10:57 PM EST
The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 41 BPs to 1.78% as of the November 29 close.
In this article: IEF, TLT, SPX, TYX
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Monthly Market Review For November 2019
Article By: The Milwaukee Company
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 7:51 PM EST
November was yet another good month for the U.S. stock market with large-cap stocks rising roughly 3.8% and small-cap stocks rising roughly 4.1%.
In this article: TIPS, GLD, IEF, JNK, MUB, SPX
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The 4th Volatility Spike Of 2019
Video By: TheoTrade
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 5:41 PM EST
Though it may have taken longer than expected, we're finally seeing the fourth VIX Volatility Spike of 2019.
In this video: GLD, IEF, TLT, XLF, SPX, VIX, TYX
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Gold Good Times Are Here
Article By: Stewart Thomson
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 12:13 PM EST
While some analysts are getting a bit negative in their outlook for gold, the physical market is getting stronger and that’s very good news for investors.
In this article: FXY, GDX, GLD, UUP
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Tariffs, Tariffs, And More Tariffs
Article By: Joe Perry
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 11:51 AM EST
Although the S&P 500 is down nearly 80 handles in two days, price still has room to run down towards 3065, which is the upward sloping trendline dating back to September 2018.
In this article: IEF, SPX
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Forecasting The 2020 Election: The Economic Baseline (Or, Don’t Count On A Recession)
Article By: New Deal Democrat
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 10:33 AM EST
So, while it is possible that a recession could be upon us in the 3rd or 4th Quarter of next year, if the economy is left to its own devices it is unlikely.
In this article: IEF
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EC Where’s The Alpha?
Article By: Brad Zigler
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 10:12 AM EST
A deep dive into ETFs with the highest alpha coefficients shows small has been huge for equity portfolios; for fixed income, it’s zero duration. But what about the future?
In this article: FINX, XMMO, FDM, IYG, SMMV, BAB, IVV, BND, GTO, BOND, HYIH, IGIH
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