Probability Of Recession: In 12 Months Vs. Within 12 Months
Article By:
Menzie Chinn
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Friday, December 6, 2019 5:30 AM EST
With increasing term spreads (or, steepening of the yield curve), fears of imminent recession have waned. Does this make sense?
In this article: IEF
Warning Signs Flash As High Yield Corporate Debt Mounts
Article By:
Interactive Brokers
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Thursday, December 5, 2019 3:00 PM EST
The allure of higher-yielding, U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds has led to a massive spike in issuance volumes, along with heightened risks of refinancing failures and potential defaults.
The Bond Market Is Nuts
Article By:
Dennis Miller
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Thursday, December 5, 2019 6:20 AM EST
The bond market is absolutely nuts – devoid of any common sense.
China Set To Make History With Record Number Of Bond Defaults In 2019
Article By:
Tyler Durden
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Thursday, December 5, 2019 3:55 AM EST
After a brief lull in the third quarter, a burst of at least 15 new defaults since the start of November have sent the year’s total to 120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion) and set to eclipse the 121.9 billion yuan annual record in 2018.
The Credit Market Powder Keg
Article By:
Acting Man
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019 10:42 PM EST
By all accounts, credit markets remain on fire. 2019 is already a record year for corporate bond issuance, beating the previous record set in 2017 by a sizable margin.
Many Catalysts Can Wreck The QE-Inspired Bubble
Article By:
Gary Gordon
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019 1:38 PM EST
Over the last five years, stock prices for the S&P 500 have gained more than 50%. Meanwhile, after-tax profits at non-financial companies have actually declined in the period. Is that sustainable?
Principles Of Valuation Part 2: Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
Article By:
Chuck Carnevale
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019 10:50 AM EST
Common stocks are certainly not as safe as treasury bonds, however, the principles behind sound valuation still apply.
Forecasting The 2020 Election: The Economic Baseline (Or, Don’t Count On A Recession)
Article By:
New Deal Democrat
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Tuesday, December 3, 2019 10:33 AM EST
So, while it is possible that a recession could be upon us in the 3rd or 4th Quarter of next year, if the economy is left to its own devices it is unlikely.
In this article: IEF
EC Where’s The Alpha?
Article By:
Brad Zigler
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Tuesday, December 3, 2019 10:12 AM EST
A deep dive into ETFs with the highest alpha coefficients shows small has been huge for equity portfolios; for fixed income, it’s zero duration. But what about the future?