Bullish Signals Emerging After Market Panic

Photo by Nicholas Cappello on Unsplash
 

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/31/25 at 6840.20.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 75.76; 9/29/25

 

Panic is present in the market and panic forms near lows. Friday the TRIN closed at 1.20 and tick closed at -217 which a bullish combination, suggesting a low in the market is forming. Today the TRIN closed at 1.21 and the tick at -9 which is bullish and adds to the bullish short term picture. Rally in SPX should continue. Seasonality turns modestly bearish mid Month and we will see what the picture looks like than. 
 

We updated this chart from last week. The bottom window is the weekly SPX and next higher window is the weekly SPX/TLT ratio. Its common for the weekly SPX/TLT ratio to lead SPX. If the SPX is making higher highs and the SPX/TLT is making lower highs a negative divergence is present suggesting a pull back in SPX is coming, (shaded in pink on chart above). Currently the SPX has made higher highs and the SPX/TLT ratio also made higher highs and a bullish divergences, suggests the currently rally may continue. (Shaded in green). Staying long the SPX for now.”
 

We updated this chart from Friday. GDX was do for a consolidation and here we are. When coming off a high one would like to see an explosion in volume where volume at least double compared to the previous weeks volume and that condition implies exhaustion; and we have that here. This condition is called a “Selling Climax” and ends the down price movement. We listed other “Selling Climaxes” on the chart above. After a “Selling Climax” the market can either start another up leg or start a consolidation (the downtrend is done); we are leaning towards the consolidation this time around as market is do for one. This potential consolidation has support near current levels (around 93.00) and has resistance near the previous highs near 115.00 range. We will see how the next rally goes as its still possible higher highs are possible as the Up down volume and advance/ decline indicators are still bullish. We will see what it looks like on the test of the previous highs near 115.00 range. Longer term trend remain bullish Long GDX on /29/25 at 75.76.

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There Is Panic In The Market
Panic Signals Support As SPX And GDX Trends Stay Bullish
Panic Only Forms Near Lows