Really appreciate your perspective — especially the point about Musk having multiple reinforcing platforms (FSD, robots, energy storage, semis, etc.). That kind of diversification within a founder-led ecosystem is rare.
My question is more about timing and market expectations. Tesla doesn’t need to fail for the stock to struggle; it just needs to execute slower than the market hopes. FSD, Optimus, and energy scale-out are all multi-year cycles with regulatory and engineering dependency. If investors are pricing in near-flawless progress, even small setbacks could compress the “Musk premium.”
So I agree with you on the potential. I’m just not fully convinced the current risk profile reflects how much has to go right — and how sequential execution risks can stack. That’s where I think the debate really is.
You describe multiple failure bars at 6,800, which you interpret as bearish. Could you clarify — what’s your threshold for calling a failure bar valid, and does that apply equally in volatile markets like we have now?
Nice write‑up. You make a compelling case: past doubts about #ElonMusk tended to be proven wrong, and his track record of turning bold visions into market‑shaping companies — from #Tesla, Inc. to #SpaceX — is hard to ignore.
That said: isn’t there a growing counter‑argument, given how much seems to hinge on perfect execution, favorable regulation, and continued investor faith? As critics point out, since 2022 $TSLA stock has under‑performed many alternatives.
So my question for other readers — and maybe the author: is this more about betting on Musk (the man) than on diversified business fundamentals? Could that make this a high‑reward but extremely high‑risk bet?”
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That said: isn’t there a growing counter‑argument, given how much seems to hinge on perfect execution, favorable regulation, and continued investor faith? As critics point out, since 2022 $TSLA stock has under‑performed many alternatives.
So my question for other readers — and maybe the author: is this more about betting on Musk (the man) than on diversified business fundamentals? Could that make this a high‑reward but extremely high‑risk bet?”
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