What specific near-term catalysts do you see as most likely to drive the valuation re-rating you describe, and which ones carry the greatest execution risk?
How much of the rally do you attribute to fundamental improvements (e.g. better drug pipelines, regulatory environment) vs. speculative momentum or market sentiment?
Really appreciate your perspective — especially the point about Musk having multiple reinforcing platforms (FSD, robots, energy storage, semis, etc.). That kind of diversification within a founder-led ecosystem is rare.
My question is more about timing and market expectations. Tesla doesn’t need to fail for the stock to struggle; it just needs to execute slower than the market hopes. FSD, Optimus, and energy scale-out are all multi-year cycles with regulatory and engineering dependency. If investors are pricing in near-flawless progress, even small setbacks could compress the “Musk premium.”
So I agree with you on the potential. I’m just not fully convinced the current risk profile reflects how much has to go right — and how sequential execution risks can stack. That’s where I think the debate really is.
You describe multiple failure bars at 6,800, which you interpret as bearish. Could you clarify — what’s your threshold for calling a failure bar valid, and does that apply equally in volatile markets like we have now?
Nice write‑up. You make a compelling case: past doubts about #ElonMusk tended to be proven wrong, and his track record of turning bold visions into market‑shaping companies — from #Tesla, Inc. to #SpaceX — is hard to ignore.
That said: isn’t there a growing counter‑argument, given how much seems to hinge on perfect execution, favorable regulation, and continued investor faith? As critics point out, since 2022 $TSLA stock has under‑performed many alternatives.
So my question for other readers — and maybe the author: is this more about betting on Musk (the man) than on diversified business fundamentals? Could that make this a high‑reward but extremely high‑risk bet?”
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That said: isn’t there a growing counter‑argument, given how much seems to hinge on perfect execution, favorable regulation, and continued investor faith? As critics point out, since 2022 $TSLA stock has under‑performed many alternatives.
So my question for other readers — and maybe the author: is this more about betting on Musk (the man) than on diversified business fundamentals? Could that make this a high‑reward but extremely high‑risk bet?”
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