Remember that #Trump will not destroy all free trade. He makes stuff out of the country. And Al, my aunt's car broken down in the desert when I was 7 and it was 110 degrees has nothing to do with an Ivory Tower. How more real can you be, stuck in the middle of the desert in a top of the line blue beautiful Buick? Stuff is made in superior fashion now, and there are big dangers to tariffs. The economy will slow down if too many tariffs are thrown up, unless you get a lot of nations to start bringing factories here. If it is profitable, in certain industries, tariffs are appropriate. As an article on Business Insider explained back in 2010, there were already 12,000 tariffs on products in industries that our government has chosen to protect. www.businessinsider.com/americas-biggest-tariffs-2010-9
Remember those shoes I talked about? There is still a 37 percent tariff on leather shoes, Al.
He's likely going to continue offering tax incentives in order to prevent manufacturing jobs from leaving the US. Most notably, the #Carrier deal organized by #Trump and Indiana Governor where they offered carrier 7 million dollars in incentives for maintaining the factory in Indiana
Your predictions are antithetical to more than 100 years (1816-1967) of real world experience as the most tariff protected nation on earth.
You are clinging to an Ivory Tower theory. In the real world tariff protection made us wealthy while free trade has resulted in declining prosperity for the vast majority of Americans. Enough Americans no longer believe the myth of free trade to make #Trump president. Are you also a member of the Flat Earth Society?
If you take the real (inflation adjusted) wages of American blue collar workers from 1947 to their peak in 1972 and project the trend to today and compare that trend line number to what they have failed to gain the wage loss is greater than the lower prices, if any, from free trade. The last time I did that calculation the required wage increase was 80 percent. It varies from month to month but unlikely to change much. I used a least squared fit in a PERL script. Let me know if you get a different number.
To the extent that free trade produces lower prices then those lower prices would tend to push real (inflation adjusted) wages up yet blue collar wages today are below what they were in 1972. The inescapable conclusion from that fact is that combination of price and wages have worked to the disadvantage of American blue collar workers.
Let me also point out that there exists no peer reviewed economic analysis proving free trade produces lower price. Moreover, the lower prices argument assumes that consumer price is directly related to cost. Economic theory says that is wrong. Price is determined by what the market will bear not cost of production. Consider the margins Apple gets. If Foxconn charges them less to assemble them are they really going to reduce price below what the market will give them? The same considerations apply if #Trump requires #Apple to make them here.
Now that you accurately predicted a #Trump win, how did these stock picks work out for you @[John Thomas](user:21421)? What kind of time-frame should we be looking at?
I still think monetary or very long bond solutions are preferable to shorter term deficit spending. #Trump people are at least talking about the 100-year bond.
My biggest concern with #Trump is that he seems to lack any sort of filter. And he wields his #Twitter account like a weapon without thinking. That's one thing when you are a private individual. It is another when you are the president representing all of America to the world!
Thanks @[Harry Dent](user:5932), I hadn't expected a #Trump win, but once he did, I had thought the markets would crash and #gold to skyrocket. Thanks for putting some clarity on the situation. But what about @[Gary Tanashian](user:4809)'s comment below?
What about #Trump's plan to clamp down on companies trying to avoid paying US taxes. #Apple is one of the worst offenders. Couldn't this have a negative impact on $AAPL?
If these nations default, as in if #Trump cuts their #imports to the US forcing the defaults, our #banks could be in real trouble. I can't imagine how another credit crisis would help the United States prosper.
It truly was a wakeup call for the Democrats, but I doubt they'll get the message. Had they not cheated and let #BernieSanders win the primary, I suspect he could have easily beaten #Trump. Even though I'm a democrat, I found #Hillary extremely distasteful to vote for.
Well said, but what you have neflected to realize is that if #Trump opens radical appointees to the #SupremeCourt, that position will be for life and will far outlive his presidency.
"The march toward making the country a true democracy is stopped dead."
What really makes us a true #democracy is knowing that not only can we vote for our leader, but that there is always a smooth transition, even when the person we didn't vote for wins. And if that person performs poorly, we can vote for someone else, a mere four years later. If he/she performs in a dangerous or illegal fashion, we have safeguard and checks and balances in place, and the ability to peacefully remove that person from office.
I fear everyone is overreacting about #Trump. Give him a chance, if he performs poorly we will replace him. Trust in America.
You are certainly correct. We can only hope that #Trump rises to the occasion and steps up his game. Hopefully by bringing in experts as opposed to loyalists. So far however, I haven't been impressed.
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
Remember that #Trump will not destroy all free trade. He makes stuff out of the country. And Al, my aunt's car broken down in the desert when I was 7 and it was 110 degrees has nothing to do with an Ivory Tower. How more real can you be, stuck in the middle of the desert in a top of the line blue beautiful Buick? Stuff is made in superior fashion now, and there are big dangers to tariffs. The economy will slow down if too many tariffs are thrown up, unless you get a lot of nations to start bringing factories here. If it is profitable, in certain industries, tariffs are appropriate. As an article on Business Insider explained back in 2010, there were already 12,000 tariffs on products in industries that our government has chosen to protect. www.businessinsider.com/americas-biggest-tariffs-2010-9
Remember those shoes I talked about? There is still a 37 percent tariff on leather shoes, Al.
Thomas Friedman: Automation Is Killing Jobs
He's likely going to continue offering tax incentives in order to prevent manufacturing jobs from leaving the US. Most notably, the #Carrier deal organized by #Trump and Indiana Governor where they offered carrier 7 million dollars in incentives for maintaining the factory in Indiana
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
Your predictions are antithetical to more than 100 years (1816-1967) of real world experience as the most tariff protected nation on earth.
You are clinging to an Ivory Tower theory. In the real world tariff protection made us wealthy while free trade has resulted in declining prosperity for the vast majority of Americans. Enough Americans no longer believe the myth of free trade to make #Trump president. Are you also a member of the Flat Earth Society?
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
If you take the real (inflation adjusted) wages of American blue collar workers from 1947 to their peak in 1972 and project the trend to today and compare that trend line number to what they have failed to gain the wage loss is greater than the lower prices, if any, from free trade. The last time I did that calculation the required wage increase was 80 percent. It varies from month to month but unlikely to change much. I used a least squared fit in a PERL script. Let me know if you get a different number.
To the extent that free trade produces lower prices then those lower prices would tend to push real (inflation adjusted) wages up yet blue collar wages today are below what they were in 1972. The inescapable conclusion from that fact is that combination of price and wages have worked to the disadvantage of American blue collar workers.
Let me also point out that there exists no peer reviewed economic analysis proving free trade produces lower price. Moreover, the lower prices argument assumes that consumer price is directly related to cost. Economic theory says that is wrong. Price is determined by what the market will bear not cost of production. Consider the margins Apple gets. If Foxconn charges them less to assemble them are they really going to reduce price below what the market will give them? The same considerations apply if #Trump requires #Apple to make them here.
Stock Picks For A Trump Win In November
Now that you accurately predicted a #Trump win, how did these stock picks work out for you @[John Thomas](user:21421)? What kind of time-frame should we be looking at?
Trump Should Absolutely Issue 100-Year Bonds
I still think monetary or very long bond solutions are preferable to shorter term deficit spending. #Trump people are at least talking about the 100-year bond.
Trump Should Absolutely Issue 100-Year Bonds
I'd say we should probably issue a few trillion dollars in 100 year bonds and spend that money on infrastructure, asap.
Here's an interesting and related story on CNBC. Apparently #Trump is a Keynesian.
www.cnbc.com/.../...ho-supported-clinton-says.html
Politics Vs Reality
My biggest concern with #Trump is that he seems to lack any sort of filter. And he wields his #Twitter account like a weapon without thinking. That's one thing when you are a private individual. It is another when you are the president representing all of America to the world!
Why Gold Isn’t Rallying After Trump’s Win
Thanks @[Harry Dent](user:5932), I hadn't expected a #Trump win, but once he did, I had thought the markets would crash and #gold to skyrocket. Thanks for putting some clarity on the situation. But what about @[Gary Tanashian](user:4809)'s comment below?
3 Reasons To Buy Apple Inc. Stock Now
What about #Trump's plan to clamp down on companies trying to avoid paying US taxes. #Apple is one of the worst offenders. Couldn't this have a negative impact on $AAPL?
The Emerging Markets Are About to Feel the Pain of a Soaring Dollar
If these nations default, as in if #Trump cuts their #imports to the US forcing the defaults, our #banks could be in real trouble. I can't imagine how another credit crisis would help the United States prosper.
Equity Investors Be Careful What You Wish For
I most certainly agree! #BondBubble #Trump
Speculation On Trump: The Future Of The Democratic Party
It truly was a wakeup call for the Democrats, but I doubt they'll get the message. Had they not cheated and let #BernieSanders win the primary, I suspect he could have easily beaten #Trump. Even though I'm a democrat, I found #Hillary extremely distasteful to vote for.
Speculation On Trump: The Future Of The Democratic Party
Well said, but what you have neflected to realize is that if #Trump opens radical appointees to the #SupremeCourt, that position will be for life and will far outlive his presidency.
Speculation On Trump: The Future Of The Democratic Party
"The march toward making the country a true democracy is stopped dead."
What really makes us a true #democracy is knowing that not only can we vote for our leader, but that there is always a smooth transition, even when the person we didn't vote for wins. And if that person performs poorly, we can vote for someone else, a mere four years later. If he/she performs in a dangerous or illegal fashion, we have safeguard and checks and balances in place, and the ability to peacefully remove that person from office.
I fear everyone is overreacting about #Trump. Give him a chance, if he performs poorly we will replace him. Trust in America.
Donald Trump Cannot Make America Great Again But He Could Destroy It
You are certainly correct. We can only hope that #Trump rises to the occasion and steps up his game. Hopefully by bringing in experts as opposed to loyalists. So far however, I haven't been impressed.