Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 40
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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“Everything Is Bad…..”
Over the past 12 months, total non-farm payrolls have climbed an average of 243,300 per month, better than any twelve-month period in the prior expansion in 2001-07.
US Oil Production Continues To Fall
The 4wk average for US oil production has now fallen 8 straight weeks (from 9.6M to 9.325M).
Job Openings Vs S&P
Historically job openings have been greater than the S&P 500 (SPY) and its intrinsic value. I think the fact that it has stayed below since the recovery illustrates the vast pessimism still present in the market.
Vegas Home Prices Up 10%, Weinreb On Ackman & Seaport
Supply stands at 4.7mos. Still a sellers market and indicative of more price increases coming in the future.
More Positive Economic Data
Last week Aug Vehicle Sales pace were reported at 17.7mil SAAR (Seasonally Adj. Annual Rate) and this morning the Household Survey (Emp) came in at 149,036,000 employed or 196,000 above the July 2015 count
Intrinsic Value Update - S&P 500
Only time will tell what the Fed does, but I am also of the opinion that equities are the place to be, not long term fixed income.
CAPE Has No Value...
I’ve seen CAPE being used more and more by folks to justify the “market is overvalued” meme. I find CAPE to be deeply flawed for a simple reason.
Residential Construction Employment And Chemical Activity Continue Higher
The US economy continues higher….the market will follow
The Fundamentals Are Still Positive
A rising US economy has never been the stuff of major corrections. In fact history shows that it is the economic activity of the US which is the global driver till the US corrects from excess
More Credit Availability = Higher Markets
The National Assoc. Of Home Builders Housing Market Index nudged to 61 in the current report. The current level of 61 is an all-time high for this cycle and can be interpreted as positive for an expanding single-family housing market.
Positive Signs Everywhere
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in July, compared with an average monthly gain of 246,000 over the prior 12 months.
Port Of Houston Enjoying Record Year
Sure, the oil and gas industry is a significant one in Houston, but its decline over the past year is not going to sink the local economy. What it will do it take an area growing 3X-4X the national average to one growing at or slightly above it.
The “Worst Recovery” In 70 Years ???
We are decidedly not in the “worst recovery in 70 years” even if every one seems to believe it so. One wonders what methods our finest universities are using to teach critical thinking.
Chemical Activity Signaling “Potentially Accelerating Business Activity”
The American Chemistry Council’s updated Chemical Activity Barometer continues its uptrend.
China’s Market & US Economy Not Correlated
China as part of the emerging market asset class (EEM) peaked in early 2011 and then had a recent spike which represented highly speculative anticipation by Chinese investors of’ A Shares’ entrance into the larger MSCI index.
Employment, Housing & Autos Point To Continually Improving Economy
The two major monitors of economic activity which I find most helpful in a long term investment approach are the trends of housing markets and the trends of employment.
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