Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 32
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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S&P Intrinsic Value Update - Sunday, April 2
The important takeaway here is that while the market itself is not “cheap” (there is still tons of “value” out there), it is in no way in a “bubble”. Past market peaks have had the S&P (SPY​) 60% to 100% above its intrinsic value.
Higher Oil Prices Coming
Listening to what people responded to the past couple of years, I expect higher oil prices the next 6mos.
S&P Vs. T-Bill/10yr Rate Spread Update
I refined the 0.0% T-Bill/10yr Treas rate spread as an indicator preceding the economic correction. The level is closer to 0.2%. I attached the spreadsheets for your use.
Increasing Capital Flow To International Equities May Lead To Dollar Fall
The US$ holds near its highs, but the EFA (LgCap Intl Equities) shows that capital is flowing to Intl Equities as it rises to 62.6. The MSCI All Capital World Ex-US Index which includes EmgMarkets is rising in tandem.
Chemical Activity Indicates Higher Equity Prices Ahead
The Chemical Activity Barometer, a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council, posted its strongest year-over-year gain in nearly seven years.
Recession Calls…Still Wrong
Prominent forecasters believe the recent rise in market prices are due for a significant correction which they believe will lead to a significant economic downturn.
Selection V Expectations
The better investment decisions are made entering into well run companies during a business downturn.
Fed To Raise In March?? Not Likely
The T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread is far from a 0.0% T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread. The T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread is 1.9%-2.0% today. The T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread is currently widening.
Berkowitz Responds
Last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported annual net income of $12.3 billion and $7.8 billion, respectively. This remarkable performance is further proof that these indispensable mortgage insurers have been successfully rehabilitated.
Chemical Activity Barometer Still Rising…Equity Markets Should Also
The Chemical Activity Barometer hits a new high and predicts higher equity markets ahead.
Markets Are Not Open To Simple Interpretations
Our investment world is not simple. It is never open to simple interpretation. Often, what we think is occurring today is only explained in hindsight with a long term perspective.
Oil Situation
Total US Production+ Imports rose to 18.35mil BBL/DAY (historical high).
Dallas Fed’s Miss On The “Natural Rate”
We’ve been hearing a bit more about the “natural rate” lately. Long time readers know that Davidson has been covering it on these pages for several years now.
Employment Reports Indicate Higher Equity Markets
Economic expansion continues. Equity markets should rise. Interest rates should rise as investors shift capital to capture equity returns.
Is GDP Really “Weak”?
There is even despair that the US has entered a permanently slow economy. This pessimism is more about not understanding the components of GDP and the current economy than the economy itself. The economy is much better than many believe.
Real Estate Pricing Reflects Shifting Global Dynamics
. The drivers of the real estate cycle prior to Jan 2010 transitioned to entirely different drivers today and will likely transition again the next several years. Investment fundamentals changed and caused investor behavior to change.
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