Executive Officer at SME
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

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E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
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According To This Leading Indicator, The World Is Now In A Recession
3 days ago

I agree it is hard to reverse QE. I think every economist knew this long before and some just chose to lie about it. It is good the Fed is trying to reverse it a little. I do not think they can or will reverse it as much as some expect. Sadly it will take a long time and more than likely a recession will hit before they reverse a substantial amount of it.

If allowed, the Fed should slow interest rate hikes and continue to reverse QE as long as it can in a reasonable manner. This is not really under the Fed's control. The Fed has raised rates as a delayed response to higher rates in the market. They were not the initiator of higher rates as they usually are. Now that long term rates have subsided, hopefully the markets will hold and rate rises can be slowed considerably.

The author is right that tightening the Fed's balance sheet is risky. This is reversing QE which is hard to do. This is why it should not be done save maybe only in a recession. Certainly not the way it was done this cycle.

Key Takeaways From Q4 Earnings Results Thus Far
3 days ago

The good news is growth estimates have dropped even for stalwarts and I think the market understands more the coming quarters that pricing power will determine companies success in the future more than phenomenal sales growth. This is probably bad for the slew of money losing start ups the street keeps dumping into the market. However, they do this because some are obviously willing to gamble with them. Casinos will stay open as long as their are gamblers willing to bet on losing propositions.

In this article: SPX
David Morgan: Expect Stagflation And Silver Outperformance In 2019
4 days ago

Long term rates are dropping and growth is slowing. We are quite far from an economic downturn measured in growth and going the opposite way in inflationary pressure right now. I agree that inflation will remain especially if Chinese tariff wars continue and oil rises. So there is some concern.

Long term, the fact that Republicans no longer keep a lid on US spending but have all but given up on fiscal conservatism makes a pertinent long term argument towards some diversification to hedge for inflation.

Negative Cash-Flow Companies And Households Bad For Banks
4 days ago

The issue for Canada and especially the banks is less negative free cash flow than a threat of asset depreciation, especially if the depreciation hits the real estate market. The same goes for the US. Sadly, increasingly real estate is becoming a speculation game than a fall back asset of strength for families.

In this article: XLF, EWC
Global Economic Political Policy - Highest Uncertainty In Over 20 Years
4 days ago

Sadly although younger people are making more there are less and less jobs. The simple fact is this may be caused by the evaporation of lower skilled jobs putting those who would have had them into the unemployment line. If you look at the unemployment of 18-30 year olds in government statistics it is not good.

My Energy Sector Predictions For 2019
4 days ago

I am not bullish on natural gas, but I am positive on oil demand. As for oil prices, I expect a gradual rise but nothing significant with potential downward shocks on the way. The simple fact is, there are too many companies with shaky finances in oil right now.

January Rally Mirrors December Panic
4 days ago

The good news is interest rates are moderating, especially long term rates not just in treasuries but across the board. The Fed has been a follower not a leader. This poses a positive outlook in the near term and has been realized by the market. That said, a downturn will happen eventually. Hopefully the Fed will be more normalized and better able to deal with it when it appears.

The author is right that there are a lot of potential bad things that can happen but it is not right to add them into estimates when their occurrence is still not known. Hopefully the China trade spat will be resolved as well as the government shutdown. If this happens it will be quite positive for the market.

Yields Falling; Who Could Be Buying Without QEs?
20 days ago

With oil prices weakening inflation worries have been mollified. The only thing causing inflation right now is trade wars and tariffs. This is the main reason for the US Fed to raise rates and it is not wrong until the threat dissipates. Sadly this is a political choice with economic effects rather than an economic choice. Who knows if it will end. It certainly will continue to hurt the global economy and increasingly hurt the US economy as well.

US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 15-Month Lows
20 days ago

Global #tradewars will hurt US manufacturing in the long run. The US needs cheap steel and other raw materials and parts to create affordable added value products. Barring this it just opens the floodgates for other countries to use them and grow their business at the cost of US brands.

Let The Cuts Begin
20 days ago

This market is quite interesting. Yes manufacturing is getting a pullback and the semi cycle is ending, however the US economy driver by mainly the service industry is still chugging along. This years winter driving and Christmas season oil usage is all up.

The author has a point that gas prices are still relatively high in the US. Sadly it is partially because of gas taxation. However, Exxon and companies processing oil to gasoline are probably doing well despite the drop in oil. Of course Exxon didn't get much of a rise when oil prices skyrocketed. So stability in this stock is more the key I guess.

The main point is the US is pumping as much oil as it can because small oil companies must cover cash flow and pump at a loss and will soon buckle. I don't expect the projection for massive increases in US oil output from here as some do. The oil price decline will only strengthen the case for reduced oil production growth from here on out. The oil price decline will hurt the US now rather than help it. This is a big change from the 1970s.

In this article: OILB
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Moon Kil Woong Commented on According To This Leading Indicator, The World Is Now In A Recession:

I agree it is hard to reverse QE. I think every economist knew this long before and some just chose to lie about it. It is good the Fed is trying to reverse it a little. I do not think they can or will re...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on Key Takeaways From Q4 Earnings Results Thus Far:

The good news is growth estimates have dropped even for stalwarts and I think the market understands more the coming quarters that pricing power will determine companies success in the future more than p...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on David Morgan: Expect Stagflation And Silver Outperformance In 2019:

Long term rates are dropping and growth is slowing. We are quite far from an economic downturn measured in growth and going the opposite way in inflationary pressure right now. I agree that inflation will...

more
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