James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 73

James Picerno

Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more
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US Business Cycle Risk Report For March 19
Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:04 AM EDT
The global Covid-19 pandemic is creating havoc in economies around the world and the US is no exception. In the wake of this crisis, standard modeling techniques have become worthless for estimating current conditions and estimating the near-term.
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US Bond Returns Vary Dramatically So Far In 2020
Wednesday, March 18, 2020 7:36 AM EDT
The upheaval in global financial markets this year is unleashing profound effects on US fixed-income assets—negative and positive. Depending on the slice of the bond market, year-to-date results vary from strong gains to deep losses.
In this article: BND, JNK, TLT
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A Brief Tour Of The Dark US Economic Outlook
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:43 AM EDT
The published data suggest moderate growth remains intact, but the rear-view mirror has rarely been so meaningless for assessing the likely path of the economic trend in the months ahead.
In this article: SPY Also: GS
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Nowhere To Hide Last Week
Monday, March 16, 2020 9:07 AM EDT
The coronavirus blowback that’s roiling the world cut into every facet of the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
In this article: VNQI, BWX, GSG, TIP, BND
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March Book Bits
Monday, March 16, 2020 12:05 AM EDT
My latest book recommendations.
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China’s Stock Market Suffers The Least In Global Equities Sell-Off
Friday, March 13, 2020 10:20 AM EDT
China has been the epicenter for the coronavirus outbreak, but its stock market is suffering the least on a year-to-date basis through yesterday’s close for the world’s major equity market regions, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
In this article: MCHI, SPY, VT
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The Stock Market Crashed. Will The Economy Follow?
Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:03 AM EDT
The dramatic slide in the US stock market in recent days is effectively a forecast that an economic recession is fate. The assumed catalyst: coronavirus blowback.
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Does South Korea’s Covid-19 Data Hint At Peaking Infection Rate?
Wednesday, March 11, 2020 8:27 AM EDT
Is the infection rate for new coronavirus cases in South Korea peaking? Unclear, although the latest data suggests that’s a possibility offering what may be a light at the end of the tunnel for the country and the rest of the world.
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Out-Of-Sample Risk Is (Always) The Biggest Threat To Expectations
Tuesday, March 10, 2020 8:59 AM EDT
Recent economic indicators are still reflecting that the moderate pace of growth reported in last year’s fourth quarter remains on track to continue in Q1.
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REITs And Bonds Rose Last Weeks As Global Stocks Fell
Monday, March 9, 2020 10:48 AM EDT
Coronavirus-related selling took a toll on equity markets last week (and more of the same is in store for today).
In this article: BND, BWX, GSG, VNQ, VTI
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US Payrolls Continued Rising At Strong Pace In February
Friday, March 6, 2020 6:19 PM EDT
Coronavirus risk is lurking, but if the US economy’s vulnerable it’s not obvious in today’s payrolls report for February.
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Will US Treasury Yields Go Negative?
Friday, March 6, 2020 8:06 AM EDT
The relatively high and positive yields in US government bonds have been an outlier in global markets, but coronavirus blowback appears on track to wipe away that spread (or at least make a hefty dent).
In this article: IEF, FVX
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Should You React To The Surge In Stock Market Volatility?
Thursday, March 5, 2020 9:43 AM EDT
The coronavirus that’s roiling world markets and raising questions about the economic outlook has triggered a familiar shock to stocks: higher volatility.
In this article: SPX, VIX
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Fed Cuts Rates As Global Coronavirus Risk Continues To Rise
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 7:18 AM EDT
It’s unclear if yesterday’s emergency 50-basis-point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve will help immunize the US economy against coronavirus-related blowback.
In this article: IEF
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Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes, March 3
Tuesday, March 3, 2020 7:14 AM EDT
The GMI is expected to earn an annualized risk premium of 4.5% over the long run in today’s revised estimate. The new projection reflects a downgrade from last month’s 5.0% forecast and no change from the year-ago estimate.
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Major Asset Classes: Performance Review, February 2020
Monday, March 2, 2020 7:20 AM EDT
Nearly every corner of the major asset classes took a beating in February, courtesy of coronavirus-related worries.
In this article: EFA, EEM
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