James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Is US Recession Risk Rising? Warning Signs Are Starting To Emerge
Recession talk for the US resurges. Although there’s still room for debate on the near-term business-cycle outlook some indicators are highlighting decelerating growth that could be the start of trouble in the second half of the year into early 2025.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Tuesday, June 18
The 10-year yield has been trending down for much of the past two months.
Most US Equity Sectors Are Up This Year—With Two Exceptions
The US stock market’s strong year-to-date gain so far in 2024 has enjoyed wide support among equity sectors.
Resilient US Labor Market Blurs Outlook For Rate Cuts
Nonfarm payrolls rose 272,000 in May, rebounding sharply from April’s gain with a gain that was well above the consensus forecast.
US Q2 GDP Nowcast Eases, But Modest Pickup Over Q1 Is Expected
Recent economic estimates suggest US growth has slowed compared with previous estimates, but today’s revised GDP nowcast for the second quarter still points to a modest pickup in output over Q1.
Is The US Bond Market Poised For Recovery?
The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over.
Is The Bond Market Rethinking The Outlook For Rate Cuts?
After yesterday’s news that US job openings fell to a three-year low in April, the data fueled the incentive for the bond market to reassess the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes
The performance outlook for the Global Market Index ticked higher again in May.
Major Asset Classes Performance Review - May 2024
Global markets rebounded sharply in May, with the exception of commodities, based on a set of ETF proxies.
US Q1 GDP Revised Down, But Q2 Nowcasts See Firmer Growth
US economic growth rose a modest 1.3% in the first quarter, a softer increase vs. the government’s initial 1.6% estimate.
Will Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Tick Lower In Friday’s Update?
Tomorrow’s update on US inflation for April looks set to tick lower, although the odds aren’t trivial that pricing pressure will remains sticky, according to various forecasts and a review of pricing trends published to date.
Africa Stocks Take Lead For Global Equities Market In 2024
After a punishing start to the year, shares in Africa have rebounded and are now the leading performer for the global stock market in 2024, based on a set of ETFs tracking the world’s main regions through yesterday’s close (May 28).
U.S. Economic Data Still Reflect Low Recession Risk - Will It Last?
A broad set of U.S. economic indicators continue to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent.
Fed Funds Futures Market Starts To Flirt With Rate Hike Possibility
The monetary policy outlook has been uncertain, but primarily in terms of the timing of the first rate cut. But that’s starting to change as Fed funds futures price in the possibility of a rate hike.
Market Trends Continue To Lean Into A Bullish Signal
Although there are plenty of warnings from analysts who see trouble ahead, trend profiles show no fear.
US Economy Still On Track For Modest Pickup In Growth For Q2
US economic activity is expected to post a modestly firmer increase in the second quarter.
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