#Gold is the tortoise to the average investor's hare. We think in real time but the would-be death of the dollar and ascension of gold takes time... lots of it.

I like Joe Friday's way of thinking! ;-)

Interesting. I notice it's right back to the pre-pump levels in the.30 to.50 area where it had flat lined for years.

Long-term to the average market participant today... a week? Good article.

I am not bullish on #gold in the short-term, but the author's rationale for a crash in gold is not correct in my opinion. A slowing economy is key to a bullish stance in gold, not a bearish one. The CoT noted above needs to finish its trend toward improvement and US stock market needs to top out. Then, when articles are printed far and wide calling for gold to 700 or 400, it will be time to buy.

You keep simplifying, as in "everyone was looking up". Everyone most certainly was not looking up. In 2012 technical supports broke that indicated the bull cycle was broken. But also, Operation Twist was a massive fundamental shift in that its express mission (as stated by the Fed) was to "sanitize" inflation and drop the yield curve. This is fact.

I know you want to believe your TA/Sentiment stance is iron clad and as simple as you state. But it's not. Tell me, what was your stance in July? Was it bullish the precious metals or bearish? Gold bugs were way over confident so there I'd say that if you were following sentiment then you would be right on. TA did not give clues until certain supports were taken out. But a funda underpinning (I suppose you could call it a sentiment indicator too), like the CoT, had exhausted a trend toward over bullish by the large specs. Have you remained bearish all these months later? Once a trend in the CoT turns the next buy opp. is usually not until the trend is exhausted. That's fundamental.

So if you wanted to say that the funda followed by 90% of gold bugs is no good, I would agree w/ you 100%. But not your assertions as you make them, Avi.

The funda said avoid gold in 2012. Never mind this garbage about money printing and inflation. Those are not funda or they are wrong headed funda. It's yield curves, yield dynamics and gold's ratios to items like the stock market that matter.

Perhaps you do not remember, but you critiqued an article of mine at SA and I tried and tried to explain but you seem to have a moat dug around your castle of thought. What I am saying is that yes, the funda that the average gold bug believes... it's utter crap. But you cannot just assert that funda do not matter. I am primarily TA, but I marry the correct funda (and sentiment) w/ TA for the best probabilities. It is not only about TA and sentiment. Those lag the earliest funda signals sometimes.

You over simplify once again. You cherry pick the wrong-headed "fundamental analysis" put forth by wrong-headed analysts and claim funda analysis does not work. No sir, the WRONG funda analysis does not work. The right FA would and did keep people out of gold ever since the yield curve got smashed down in 2012.