The talk over the past couple of months has been, interest rates are rising and the Fed will raise rates very soon. Joe Friday feels a big test is in play, before one can say the “rate trend has changed!”

Below looks at the yield on the 10-year note, over the past 20-years.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The yield on the 10-year note has remained inside of falling channel (1), creating lower highs and lower lows, for the majority of the past 20-years. The top of the channel is being tested as resistance at (2), as momentum is reaching lofty levels.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; The trend in rates remains down, with a key resistance test in play at (2). If rates breakout at (2), they would accomplish something they have not been able to do since the mid-1990’s! Just the facts, what takes place here, could well be at least a short-term game changer!

What happens at (2) should have a large impact on TLT, XLU, IYR going forward, as “EACH” is testing 6-year rising channel support right now, with momentum on each, reaching oversold levels.