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Ironman

Blogger at Political Calculations
Contributor's Links: Political Calculations
Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ...more
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Shift In Expectations Boosts S&P 500 In Week 2 Of September 2017
Monday, September 18, 2017 4:07 AM EDT
The likelihood that the Fed would next hike short term U.S. interest rates went from last week's zero percent chance of happening anytime soon to a greater than 50% probability that they will act to make it happen in December 2017.
In this article: SPY
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Visualizing The U.S. Distribution Of Income In 2017
Wednesday, September 13, 2017 5:19 AM EDT
The cumulative income data applies for the 2016 calendar year, which the Census Bureau collected through its March 2017 survey sample, which they processed and published on 12 September 2017.
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U.S-China Trade Before The Storm
Tuesday, September 12, 2017 5:00 AM EDT
Although it only lasted from 17 August 2017 through 2 September 2017, Hurricane Harvey will have an impact on trade between the U.S. and China.
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Spaghetti Charts And The S&P 500's Future In Week 1 Of September 2017
Monday, September 11, 2017 5:26 AM EDT
Sometimes, the historic stock prices that we use as those base reference points reflect have been affected by an abnormal amount of volatility in the stock market, where the echo of past volatility skews our dividend futures-based model forecasts.
In this article: SPX
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Dividends By The Numbers In August 2017
Wednesday, September 6, 2017 4:58 AM EDT
August 2017 was something of a mixed month for dividend-paying stocks in the U.S. stock market.
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The Aftermath Of Hurricane Harvey And The S&P 500 In Week 5 Of August 2017
Tuesday, September 5, 2017 4:45 AM EDT
The S&P 500 performed slightly better than our dividend futures-based forecasting model anticipated during the week, assuming that investors remain largely focused on the distant future quarter of 2018-Q2 in setting today's stock prices.
In this article: SPX
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July 2017 Median Household Income
Thursday, August 31, 2017 9:31 AM EDT
For July 2017, our estimate of nominal U.S. median household income ticked upward to $58,340 from our previous estimate of $58,258 for June 2017.
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Median New Home Sale Prices Resume Slow Climb
Wednesday, August 30, 2017 3:53 AM EDT
Median U.S. new home sale prices continued to trudge slightly upward last month, continuing on their slow, upward trajectory after flattening somewhat last month.
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Aligned Expectations For The S&P 500 In Week 4 Of August 2017
Monday, August 28, 2017 5:24 AM EDT
The fourth week of August provided an almost textbook example of how stock prices behave when investor expectations are closely aligned with the signals being sent by the economy's major players.
In this article: SPY
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Heightened Potential For Order To Break Down In S&P 500
Tuesday, August 22, 2017 4:00 AM EDT
Since the end of the first quarter of 2016, the trajectory of the S&P 500 with respect to its trailing year dividends per share has mostly behaved in an orderly manner.
In this article: SPY
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The S&P 500 In Week 3 Of August 2017
Monday, August 21, 2017 4:10 AM EDT
For the S&P 500, the third week of August 2017 looked an awful lot like the second week of the month.
In this article: SPX
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The Pace Of Dividend Cuts Midway Through 2017-Q3
Thursday, August 17, 2017 5:40 AM EDT
Compared to the third quarter of 2016, the pace of dividend cuts in the third quarter of 2017 are slightly ahead of the pace set a year ago, with the current level being consistent with recessionary conditions being present within the U.S. economy.
In this article: RGR
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Summer 2017 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
Wednesday, August 16, 2017 5:30 AM EDT
Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.
In this article: SPX
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Breaking The Chain Of Boredom With The S&P 500 In Week 2 Of August 2017
Monday, August 14, 2017 5:11 AM EDT
The U.S. stock market has been on what we've described as a boring trend over the last several weeks, even as it has hovered near records highs.
In this article: SPX
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Solid Growth In U.S.- China Trade
Wednesday, August 9, 2017 4:44 AM EDT
June 2017 saw a fairly robust growth rate in the value of goods and services being traded between the U.S. and China, suggesting that economic growth between the world's two largest trade partners is relatively healthy.
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U.S. Median New Home Prices Flatten Out
Tuesday, August 8, 2017 4:31 AM EDT
After initially appearing to have surged in May 2017, revisions to median new home sale prices in June 2017 are now more consistent with a flat-to-slowly rising trend for the year to date.
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