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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more


Latest Posts
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Post Peak, Recession Odds Continue To Recede
While the recession risk is now falling, that doesn't change where it peaked.
Fall 2019 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
As of data from 11 November 2019, Standard & Poor's earnings data indicates a new earnings recession has begun, with the trailing twelve month total of quarterly earnings for 2019-Q3 dropping below the level recorded for 2019-Q2.
S&P 500 Keeps Rising And Setting New Records
The S&P 500 marked its third consecutive week of closing at new record high values, ending Friday, 15 November 2019 at 3,120.46, with health care stocks providing the upward momentum to close out the second full week of November 2019.
Does Raising The Minimum Wage Help The Homeless?
San Francisco's unemployment rate has fallen from 4.1% in January 2015 to 3.4% in January 2017 to 2.6% in January 2019.
S&P 500 Continues Setting New Record Highs
The S&P 500 continued setting new highs in the first full week of Nov. 2019, buoyed by positive changes in the outlook for dividends and earnings for the component companies that make up the index.
Improved Outlook For Dividends In 2020 Powers S&P 500 Upward
Most of that change has taken place during the last three weeks, since 21 Oct. 2019. The change coincides with the bulk of S&P 500 firm earnings reports, which have been generally positive and which have helped power the S&P 500 to new record highs.
U.S.-China Trade Continues To Shrink In Tariff War
The carnage from the U.S-China tariff war continued through September 2019, where trade data for the month just released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates year-over-year declines from September 2018's tariff war-reduced figures.
Dividends By The Numbers In October 2019
October 2019 presents a mixed picture for the relative health of dividend paying companies in the U.S. stock market.
S&P 500 Powers To New Record Highs
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) ended the final trading week of October 2019 on a very high note, setting a new record high closing value of 3,066.91 on Friday, 1 November 2019.
Median Household Income In September 2019
Median household income in the United States reached a new record high of $66,214 in September 2019, a 0.4% increase from Sentier Research's August 2019 estimate of $65,976.
After Peaking At 1-in-9 In September 2019, Odds Of U.S. Recession Falls To 1-in-11
The Fed took action again on 30 October 2019 and cut the Federal Funds Rate by another quarter-point for the third time since 30 July 2019.
Falling Trend For New Home Sale Prices Resumes
After having held relatively steady in recent months, new home sale prices have resumed falling.
Trends For Existing Home Sales In The US
Existing-home sales in the U.S. largely continued treading water through August 2019, with the initial estimate of the seasonally-adjusted aggregate value of recorded sales across the U.S. dipping slightly to $1.51 trillion.
S&P 500 Investors Navigate Shifting Expectations
The S&P 500 toyed with reaching a new all-time high on Friday, 25 October 2019, buoyed up by positive earnings reports and news reports the U.S. and China were close to hammering out the details of the 'Phase 1" trade deal.
Not Worth A Nickel?
The price of nickel is rising rapidly because Indonesia, the world's second largest exporter of nickel ore, has announced it will stop exporting the metal in 2020 so the country can protect and build up a domestic smelting industry.
S&P 500 Carries No Momentum Forward
For a market that got almost every bit of positive news it could have been hoping for in the week before last, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) didn't carry any momentum into the third week of October 2019.
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