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Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, ... more

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Pace Of Dividend Cuts Accelerates In February 2019
We're only two-thirds of the way through February 2019, but the pace at which distressed U.S. firms are announcing dividend cuts has picked up considerably.
Winter 2019 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
As of 15 February 2019, S&P projects that trailing year earnings per share through 2019-Q4 will total $154.67, about the same as what they had first forecast for this distant period over a year ago, on 2 February 2018.
S&P 500 Breaks Out Of Redzone
The big news of the week is that there seems to be a growing consensus at the Fed for no further rate hikes in 2019.
Total Value Of Trade Between U.S. And China Begins Shrinking
In November 2018, the year-over-year growth rate of the value of goods imported by the U.S. from China dropped into negative territory.
A Failed Break Out For The S&P 500
For a moment during the first week of February 2019, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) looked like it might fully break out of the range described by our red zone forecast.
Median Household Income In December 2018
Sentier Research has issued their estimate of median household income in the United States for December 2018, finding the typical income earned by an American household was $63,517 for the month.
Growth Of U.S. New Home Market Turns Negative
In March 2018, the trailing twelve month average of the market capitalization of new homes sold in the U.S. peaked a bit over $20.3 billion.
Dividends By The Numbers In January 2019
January 2019 was an average-to-below-average month for dividend-paying firms in the U.S. stock market.
Median New Home Sale Prices Falling
Mortgage rates began falling in December 2018, pacing the decline in the yields of the 10-Year U.S. Treasury that began in mid-November as global economic growth began visibly deteriorating.
S&P 500 Wins As Fed Officially Capitulates
The biggest news for S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors in the final week of January 2019 was the Fed's announcement that it would pause both its series of interest rate hikes and its quantitative tightening program.
1 In 25 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before February 2020
The U.S. Federal Reserve finally backed off from hiking short term interest rates in the U.S., choosing to keep the target range of 2.25%-2.50% for the Federal Funds Rate.
Oil And Gas Industry Dominate January 2019 Dividend Cuts
Compared to the first quarter of 2018, we find that the pace of dividend cut announcements is coming in above the level we recorded through the same point of time of the current quarter.
U.S. Residential Real Estate Market Peaked In March 2018
As best as we can tell, the residential real estate market in the U.S. peaked in March 2018, where since that month, it has declined in 34 of 41 states for which we have recent price and sales data.
U.S. Government Shutdown Ends, S&P 500 Up Less Than 1%
For the S&P 500 (SPX), perhaps the biggest market-moving news of the fourth week of January 2019 came on Friday, 25 January 2019 with the announcement that the latest partial U.S. government shutdown would come to an end.
Fed Hawks Capitulation, China Stimulus Optimism Drive The S&P 500
The third week of January 2019 saw the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rise sharply, buoyed by the capitulation of the Fed's interest rate hike-loving hawks and the actions the Chinese government is taking to stimulate its economy.
Hauser's Law, Updated For 2019
From 1946 through 2018, the top marginal income tax rate has ranged from a high of 92% (1952-1953) to a low of 28% (1988-1990), where in 2018, it has recently decreased from 39.6% to 37% because of the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
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