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Economic and Financial Analysis
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Latest Posts
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US: Happy Shoppers
Decent US retail sales numbers suggest consumers are shrugging off the negative trade headlines and support our view that markets may be too aggressive in their interest rate cut expectations
Two US Rate Cuts This Year - We’ve Changed Our View
Trade worries are not abating and the economy is starting to feel the strain. The Federal Reserve is preparing for a change of course and we now look for 50bp of rate cuts in 2H19
June Economic Update: Monetary Policy To The Rescue
Financial markets are clamoring for policy stimulus as trade tensions and worries about global growth mount. Optimism that China and the US will settle is fading fast. It looks likely that central bankers will bow to pressure for rate cuts.
Brazil: No Room For Rate Cuts Just Yet
With the passage of fiscal legislation still uncertain, rate cuts would be premature, hurt the bank’s credibility and fail to stimulate the economy.
Asia Week Ahead: Riding The Wave Of Easing
With increased odds of the Fed easing, it’s hard to see Asian central banks resisting easing the pressure for too long now.
Swiss National Bank: Doves Remain Silent
The Swiss central bank decided today to keep its monetary policy unchanged and leave the main policy rate at -0.75%.
Eurozone Industrial Production Drops Markedly In April
The 0.5% decline in industrial production adds to concerns about a prolonged industrial slump, which will put more pressure on the ECB to act.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate Stays At 5.2%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) thinks the unemployment rate needs to fall to 4.5% (or lower) to spur inflation back to target - so we can expect more rate cuts as this isn't happening yet.
US Inflation: Feeding The Frenzy
Softer US consumer price inflation data will only fuel the market clamor for interest rate cuts.
China: Soft Credit Growth Means Slower Activity Growth
China’s credit growth, including loan growth, was softer than expected.
Turkish Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate On Hold
The CBT has kept the policy rate flat at 24%, in line with consensus. The decision shows that the bank is maintaining its focus on currency stability and on building credibility.
Corn: US Crop Downgrade
The USDA’s June WASDE was clearly bullish for the corn market, with US corn output cut by more than expected, following delayed plantings.
Romania: May CPI Flat At 4.1%
Food inflation inched 0.2ppt higher to 5.2%, non-food prices decelerated by 0.4ppt to 3.3%, while services CPI was flat at 4.1%.
Singapore April Retail Sales Falls
Retail sales fell 1.8%YoY in April after a revised 0.9%YoY decline in March, delivering a weak start to consumer spending in 2Q19.
Czech Inflation Accelerates Slightly To 2.9%
The month-on-month rise in food prices was 2% in May, which was the main reason behind higher than expected inflation monthly figure.
Malaysia’s April Manufacturing Signals GDP Acceleration In Second Quarter
Malaysia’s manufacturing followed on from exports with an upside growth surprise in April.
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