David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 9
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Puerto Rico: The Ball Is Rolling
August has brought welcome news for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and for creditors eager to see a resolution to the bankruptcy process that started more than two years ago.
Something Fishy
Folks, tariffs, and retaliatory tariffs like this amount to a sales tax imposed on the American consumer and a penalty imposed on American companies with American workers.
Why The Yield Curve Is Flat & Why It May Steepen
Stripped Treasury securities tend to be held to maturity by many buyers. Pensions are a key example.
How Good Can It Get?
While the Q2 GDP number is extraordinary and the economy is basically strong, we are not likely to see a continuation of such robust growth, especially if the tariff and trade wars continue.
Whack A Mole
In the latest on US trade policy, we are now starting to see the economic consequences of starting a tariff war.
Trade War Worsens
The stock market remains somewhat immune to the Twitter storms. The US Treasury yield curve remains in flat to flattening mode. And the earnings from the second-quarter reports mostly exceed expectations.
Fed Independence
In the wake of the turmoil in Washington, DC, over his performance in Helsinki, President Trump also took a sideswipe at the Federal Reserve, criticizing the FOMC’s recent efforts to normalize policy.
Bursting Bitcoin Bubble?
Some have argued that Bitcoin’s rise was tied to stock market success and that the cryptocurrency’s subsequent decline portends a stock market crash.
Tactical Trend, Q2 2018: "Embrace The Grind"
Sideways consolidating markets can test traders’ emotions. It is always a challenge to avoid overreacting to headline news and daily market gyrations.
SCOTUS – Two Major Rulings With Positive Implications For Municipal Bond Credit Quality
The Supreme Court of the United States on June 27th ruled in a 5–4 vote that government workers who choose not to join unions may not be required to help pay for collective bargaining and other union endeavors.
Difficult Quarter For Eurozone Stocks
Eurozone equity markets have encountered significant headwinds in the second quarter of this year despite continued robust economic growth above estimated potential for most Eurozone economies.
Second Quarter 2018 Taxable Bond Market
The second quarter of 2018 saw a continuation of themes apparent in the first quarter. In June the Federal Reserve continued raising rates to a federal funds rate target that now stands at 1.75%–2.00%.
Tax Free Munis Continue To Perform
The tax-free bond market has continued to benefit from the drop in supply so far in 2018.
Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2018 Review
While the U.S. stock market had a long overdue correction in February of 2018, the first quarter ended merely flat eventually. Continuing from the rebound since February low, the stock market kept rising strongly in the second quarter.
The Fed Decides
Median GDP growth was moved up one tenth of a percent in 2018 and was unchanged in 2019 through the Longer Run. The unemployment forecast edged down even further to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020 but remained at 4.5% for the longer run.
Causality
A strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causality. This is the case with the VIX. It’s closely related to the S&P 500 with a negative correlation, but the relationship may not be causal.
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