David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 8
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Is The Municipal Bond Market Sleepy?! Pension Doomsday?
Many participants in the marketplace are aware of pension-funding shortfalls as well as the growing burden of providing healthcare to retirees and paying for long-term debt.
Brexit Breakthrough Followed By Threat Of Breakdown
On November 13, British Prime Minister Theresa May and her Brexit negotiating team reached agreement with the European Union (EU) negotiators on a draft withdrawal treaty.
The Failing Trump Navarro Trade War
The United States seems to be losing the ill-conceived Trump-Navarro trade war. The evidence of this loss continues to mount.
Deficit, Fed, Post-Midterms
Estimates are that the US Treasury will end 2018 with a cash balance of $410 billion. That balance will be reduced to about $200 billion by March 1, 2019.
Italy Update: Still A Concern For Investors
The Italian drama continues, with the European bond markets demonstrating great resilience despite the risks presented by the Italian government’s proposed fiscal policy stance, which has been rejected by the European Commission.
World Series Theory Of The Bond
The bond market on average does better after a National League win in the Series, with a slightly better upside number and a considerably better downside number.
Federal Reserve Independence – Under Attack Again?
The last few days, President Trump has made inflammatory and in some instances misguided remarks as to the nature of current Fed policy, its impact on the stock market and potentially on the economy.
VIX Inversion
VIX inversion might appear to be a non-bullish sign, but we have found a bullish silver lining in the pattern. The inversion per se suggests that the market perceives the 3-month and 6-month trends to be positive.
Another Italian Drama – Why It Matters
Government deficit out of control, irresponsible government policies, tumbling bond prices and bank share prices, threat of rating-agency downgrades, political instability – we have seen similar Italian dramas in the past.
Puerto Rico – Third Quarter 2018 Review
As the third quarter comes to a close, a fragile sense of optimism for the future of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico has blossomed.
Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review
Treasury yields went up across the curve throughout the third quarter of 2018.
FOMC Closes Out Q3 2018
As Treasury markets predicted, the FOMC raised its target range for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.0%–2.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, Sept. 26. Perhaps more importantly, it also deleted the observation that policy remains accommodative
Eurozone Economy’s Expansion Ongoing And Broad-Based, Downside Risks Worrying
The Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August continued to indicate a robust economy but one with a growing imbalance.
Venezuela Implodes, Neighbors Suffer
Last week Venezuela devalued its currency, the bolivar, by 95%, cutting five zeros off the exchange rate. This measure was a desperate response to hyperinflation that reached an astonishing rate of 83,000% YoY in July.
It’s In The Stars
As is the custom for Fed chairs, Chairman Powell provided the kickoff address to the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, broadly attended by many of the world’s central bankers.
Tariffs & Draining The Swamp?
Some tariffs and trade barriers have been around for years. But, on the whole, the WTO had accomplished a global reduction. Until 2018.
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