David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 12
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Value Vs. Equal Investing: It’s More Than Just That Month
The US stock market had a marvelous year in 2017. The major benchmark S&P 500 returned 21.60% including dividends.
S&P 500 Index To Reach 3000?
We think that stocks in the US market will be fully valued when the S&P 500 Index hits the 3000 mark by the end of this decade.
December 2017 FOMC Minutes
After a boilerplate description of the “Summary of Economic Projections,” the discussion in the meeting turned to how the participants viewed the economy.
Q4 2017- Taxes, Pensions, Ratings
The fourth quarter was dominated by tax reform and its effects on the supply and pricing of municipal bonds. The prospect that one of President Trump’s major initiatives would finally be passed by year-end buoyed the stock market.
Puerto Rico – Fourth Quarter 2017 Review
Puerto Rico's insured debt has been driven to higher yields because of uncertainty and tax-loss selling pressure.
Tactical Trend, Q4 2017
Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy.
Welcome To 2018 - Bullish In The Near Term
Once the transitional shock of year-end is absorbed, we think the tax bill will raise the valuation of US stocks. Longer-term risks remain and are serious.
Taxable Total Return 4th Quarter Review
The fourth quarter of 2017 continued to produce records in the equity market, while the yield curve in the fixed-income market continued a flattening trend.
4Q 2017 Review: International ETF
The strong advance in international (global ex-US) equity markets this year slowed down in the final quarter as advanced-economy markets consolidated their substantial gains and some emerging markets gave back part of their earlier advances.
Market Volatility ETF Portfolio, 4Q 2017 Review: Will The Bull Market Continue?
The US stock market is likely to have its second-best year since the financial crisis. While the Dow has touched a new all-time high one out of every four days this year, the Nasdaq is up almost 30% year to date.
4Q2017 Review: Looking Forward
The FOMC delivered on the expected 25-basis-point increase in its target range for the federal funds rate and has penciled in three more rate hikes for 2018.
4Q2017 Review: US ETF
The last quarter of 2017 revealed continued bullish momentum in the US stock market and ongoing increases in earnings of US public companies.
Tax Bill & Shrinkage Tantrum
There will be a final tax bill. There will be a rising deficit that will eventually pressure interest rates higher. The Fed balance sheet shrinkage exacerbates this transition.
Merkel Matters
German Chancellor Angela Merkel faced a crisis when coalition talks broke down on November 19th. Germany could have endured months of political uncertainty, and it suddenly became possible that Merkel would be forced to resign.
Fed, Bonds & Interest Rates
A year from now the central bank of the United States – the lender of last resort to the US banking system and therefore to the world – will be a very different assemblage of folks than we have been accustomed to.
Chair Yellen Resigns
To no one’s surprise, Chair Yellen has announced her intention to resign effective upon the swearing in of her successor, Jerome Powell.
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